Miscellaneous

36 in South Dakota, 31 in Wyoming.  We’re up for final passage in the House in both, and those are the votes we need.  The first big test.  We’re pretty much a lock in South Dakota, and look strong in the Senate as well.  Wyoming is an open question.  If we get the House, we will get the Senate, no doubt.  Bill Fruth and I met a lot of these Representatives in Cheyenne last week, and they certainly seemed open to our arguments.  But the Birchers will be spreading wild conspiracy and end of times theories, and you never know.  I’d be severely disappointed in these people if they fall for it.  We’ll see.

In Montana the vote we need to get out of Judiciary is Theresa Manzella, from Hamilton, fifteen miles east of the Idaho border, and the Continental Divide.  It’s rugged and beautiful country.   She’s a horse woman, and moved from back East to be in real horse country.  A proud, patriotic American.  But she drank the kool-aid.  My son Brendan is calling voters in her district from Bozeman tonight.  He’ll ask them to call her and ask for her vote.  I checked the phone number she lists in the Legislative Directory to make sure it worked, and she picked up.

I know one phone call she could get that would bring her around.

From Sarah Palin.

We need one of the two or we won’t get out of the Montana House Judiciary Committee.  Matthew Monforton is counting on Natelson to bring them around, but Rob caught a bug in Pierre and won’t be in Helena next week as planned.  We’ve been scrambling all day to figure out a new plan, and it’s in the works.  Fruth will also give his highly persuasive pitch, and I saw in Cheyenne that it can turn votes.

I’ve reached out to Sarah Palin through an old friend from the Alaska Legislature, Jerry Ward.  He tells me he’ll get my proposal to her, and that’s all I can ask.  Alan Doane is from rural northeast Montana, Teresa Manzella is from the rural southwest Montana.  People from these parts of the country love Sarah Palin.  She reminds them of them.  If she’ll agree to a 30 second robocall, I’d bet the farm that it motivates people to write or call their Representative to support HJ 4.  Jerry may have trouble getting through to her, since she just told the WaPo she’s interested in running for President.  She’s probably being overwhelmed with reaction to her statement.  But Jerry will get through.  He’s one of those guys who does what he says he’ll do.

Utah convenes tomorrow, so I’ll need to start working with Kraig Powell.  It will be a fight all the way, just like Montana and Wyoming.

Idaho is another place I’ll need to check on.  Kasich was there Friday, and may have helped kick start things.  He was on Fox News Sunday today, and was on his game.  He talked about the BBA, and how it would be good if we had a convention  — a learning experience for young people.  He did not, thankfully, downplay our chances or say he hopes an Amendment Convention would be avoided by Congress passing a BBA itself.  Neither statement is helpful.

Kasich handles himself as well or better than anyone else in the field.  That’s good for us.  The more attention people pay to him, the more opportunity he’ll have to promote the BBA.

Bill McIlvain will be working the halls in Wyoming next week.  We went over our list of targets together today, and it sure seems to us that he, Tyler and Dan should be able to get to 31.  South Dakota #25, Wyoming #26.

That would be sweet.

We were sure of only two going into the committee meeting, and I’m convinced Bill Fruth’s power point presentation on the need for the amendment convinced a couple of the members.  Sponsors Lindholm and Laursen think some of these were strategic votes, with an eye toward killing it on the floor in a voice vote to advance the bill.  Frankly, I’m skeptical of this theory, but we’ll find out Monday.

Former Speaker Bill McIlvain was and is enormously helpful.  He got Fruth and Speaker Kermit Brown together, and we found out that he had technical legal objections to the DLA which was causing him to also oppose our Reso.  We’re killing the DLA, and this seems to have brought him around.  McIlvain is old friends with Senate Majority Eli Bebout, and he is now aboard as well.  All in all we’re pretty confident about the Senate.  In the House we believe we have 20 votes, and are targeting close to 30 more.  We’ll only need eleven of these targets for a majority.  If something crazy happens in the House we have Senate sponsors who are ready to put in a bill on a moment’s notice.  They could shoot it through the Senate and over to the House for another go.

South Dakota is on track for a House floor vote next week.  Hal says presentations by Natelson and Fruth last Monday sealed the deal.  Over 30 years of dedication are about to pay off for Hal Wick.

Kasich’s trip to Montana was a bust because of the Senator from the John Birch Society Scott Sales.  He disrupted everything by going after Kasich over Ohio’s Medicaid expansion. Elsewhere the trip went quite well, as far as I know.  I saw him in Cheyenne and everything went smoothly.  It was big news in Wyoming; on TV and the front page of the statewide paper, the Casper Tribune.  I’m beginning to think we don’t win this thing unless the public, generally, understands it and gets behind it.  It’s too big a dal, there’s too much resistance.  Kasich as elped, and can continue to help, educate people.

Also in Montana, Mathew Monforton says he’s got two Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee who are no’s because of a fear of a runaway.  That’s just enough to kill the bill.  We’ll be up in committee on Feb. 3rd.  He was hoping that Natelson could turn them around on Tuesday, but Natelson caught a bug in Pierre and is laid up.  I’ve requested that he get well and join Fruth and I in Helena a week later, on Monday, Feb. 2nd.  The two of them could repeat the South Dakota performance that proved so effective.  Matthew is setting up some kind of wine and cheese reception after the session that day and swears he can get these guys to come and listen.

The robocall campaign produced mixed results, and we’re changing it.  In Montana calls will go into the districts of the two R’s on Judiciary asking if the respondent supports a balanced budget amendment.  If yes, my son Brendan, in Bozeman, will be given the number and call them personally to ask them to contact their Representative.  He knows the issue well enough to explain the significance of the BBA, the safety of Article V, and the importance of Montana.  He’s good on the phone, if a little windy.  Most importantly, he’s calling from Montana.  I don’t think this works nearly as well if the call is coming from out of state.  But if the list is too long for him we can get Typhoon Lou to have the calls made.  If this works we’ll use it elsewhere as well.

Since I’ve got to be in Montana on Monday the 2nd, I’ll go early and watch the Super Bowl with sons Brendan and Darren and some of their friends.  I’ve invited Bill Fruth to join us.

I’m trying to remember who’s playing.

Friday morning, to be precise.  If we can’t get our bill out of Revenue it will not be a good sign.

The hearing’s at 7:30 a.m., which is good for a morning person like me.  Notice is a little short to fully mobilize our grass roots support, but it’s the same for any opposition.    I’ll be there with Tyler to testify, probably Tony Gagliardi as well.

I guess this is the way they roll in Wyoming  — not a lot of foreplay, just get to it.  At this rate we could be on the floor of the House in a week.   Hell, let’s get it through the Senate and done in February.  We’ll have a race with Hal Wick in South Dakota to see who gets us to 25.

Kasich will have made his pitch less than 24 hours before the hearing.  I’m counting on his making enough of an impression that these guys on the committee will feel they’re being rude if they kill “his” bill.  Folks in Wyoming like to be thought of as friendly and hospitable.  They are, all of that.

Let them show it.

When’s the last time you heard a Democratic politician of any stature come out for a balanced budget amendment?  It was Jerry Brown almost 40 years ago.  Since then, silence, even though Gallup says 65% of D’s want it.  A lot of rank and file D’s want it, but are divided from their leadership on this issue.

When’s the last time you heard a consequential Republican come out against a BBA?  They’re all for it, Tea Party and establishment.  It’s one big issue that unites the entire party.

And it is big.  The last 15 years have proven that neither political party, as they’re currently constituted, will make the tough decisions needed unless they have no choice.  And calamity awaits if those decisions are not made.

A couple issues are front and center for 2016  —  income inequality and the Islamic War on the West.  Because of what the Task Force is doing, the balanced budget amendment will be the third.  And if the Republican wins, we will get a BBA, if we haven’t already.

Personally, I want an Article V Amendment Convention more than I want a BBA.  The foregoing political analysis, if widely adopted, may well provide the impetus to put us over the top.

And once we’re over the top, away we go.