Miscellaneous

Or 10-11. Either way in Montana House Judiciary.  We may lose two or three Republicans, we may win one or two Democrats.  We’ll find out Friday morning.

At a meeting of Reagan Project Co-founders (Me, Darren and Brendan) in Bozeman last night we decided that Brendan and Darren should try to raise some money on this web site.  We’ll form a LLC, get an EIN, obtain 501  (c) (4) status as tax exempt, get a Paypal account, a post office box and a bank account.  Darren will do most of that as well as redo the site.  He’ll work with Brendan to get lists of target donors, and Brendan will dial for dollars.

Bill Fruth told me this morning he’s about tapped out.  Without him going to Capitols and doing his pitch we’re in big trouble. I can’t spend any more of my wife’s and my money   — she wouldn’t put up with it and  I don’t blame her.  We cannot and should not depend on yet more generosity from the Biddulphs.   That’s wrong.  Task Force fundraising has been abysmal.

I believe my boys can pull it off.

They ignore the Constitution on a daily basis in D.C., so how would a BBA be any different?

Here’s how.  Why do potential presidential contenders like Govs.Kasich, Perry, Pence, Snyder and Jindal, former Gov. Palin, and Senators Paul and Cruz want a BBA through the use of Article V?  (We don’t know the position of Bush, Christie, etc.  We know of no one against it.)

I believe all of these people want to actually balance the budget.  And they know they’ll need to go to war with Congress to get it done.  If they have the BBA at their back they can issue one promise which, if kept, will balance the budget:  a vow to veto any appropriation which violated the terms of the amendment.

The Constitution is a piece of paper, as are amendments to it.  When Franklin said, “A republic, if you can keep it” it was in recognition of this reality.  The BBA will work if the next President wants it to work.  Passing the amendment is not the end of this fight, it’s the beginning.  The amendment is necessary, but not sufficient.

It’s been frustrating to watch our lack of success with D’s.  We only got two in Wyoming, but then we really didn’t try to get D’s.  Maybe Montana will be different.  We managed to get the one Democrat on Revenue in Wyoming to help us get out of committee.  We may need one in Montana as well.  As of the moment we’re in real danger of losing three R’s, in which case we’d need two D’s.

Bill Fruth and I agree that, if necessary, we’ll amend our Reso to add a sunset.  None of the 24 we have contain one.  The sunset would make the Reso valid for three years.  If, in that time, an Amendment Convention hasn’t been called, it’s not going to get done.  So we’re not losing anything.  Right now the political situation in this country makes a leftist runaway an impossibility.  In ten years, who knows?  There may be rioting in the streets.  Rep. Seth Berglee (R, Joliet) has mentioned this concern to Matthew Monforton.  The sunset should help us get his vote.

Bill Fruth turned some votes in Cheyenne.  I may have helped myself with one or two.  There’s no reason we can’t do the same in Helena.

Will it be enough?

After eight years of Bush the Republican brand was dog meat.  Seven years later we’re barely above water.  And we’re going to choose yet another Goddamn Bush as our champion next year?  It’s crazy, and it will not happen.  Everybody says the polls are meaningless at this stage of the cycle, they only show who has name recognition.  And then all you read about is Jeb being the frontrunner in the polls!

For generations the Bushes have been born on third base, and have all believed they were triple hitters.  Jeb’s no exception.  He’s just another Romney, except I kind of liked Romney.  He just didn’t have balls.

W is Jeb’s tar baby.  His record was a disaster, substantively, and politically.  I’ve seen Kasich twice, in Phoenix and Cheyenne, and each time he’s pointed out that when he left D.C in 2000 there were trillions in reserve, and dimwit W blew it all. Every other potential presidential candidate knows what Kasich knows, and Jeb is going to hear about it.  Unless he’s willing to admit that his brother is a dope, he’s in a box.  And he’s not smart enough to get out of it.

I’ll get something like five minutes in front of Judiciary Tuesday morning, and I think that most of what time I have will be devoted to Democrat Zac Perry of Hungry Horse.  I’ll talk about what happens if we have a BBA.  And what Hillary would do.  I’ll tell him that after watching 34 states propose and 38 ratify, Hillary will make a political calculation that maybe she should listen.  Bill would insist on it.  And if Hillary were able to balance the budget, like Bill did, the Democratic Party could be in power for a long time.

I don’t really know what I’ll say.  You’ve got to size up the jury before you decide on your argument.  But these aren’t jurors.  You can really do some fireworks in front of a jury.  But jurors are chosen at random, and every legislator we’ll talk to is a proven political winner.  Being a state legislator is an honor that your community gives you.  Or at least that’s the way most legislators look at it.  And they expect to be treated that way.  And they should be.

When I testify, I’m a supplicant.

Natelson won’t make it to Helena due to ill health, so Bill Fruth will make the main argument to the assembled legislators on Monday.  I’ll be there as well, just like Wyoming.

Wyoming is our inspiration.  People in Montana can’t be more conservative than people in Wyoming. It wouldn’t make sense.  Six weeks ago we didn’t even have a sponsor in Wyoming, and the NFIB lobbyist there said we didn’t really have much of a chance.  We won 44-16.  All we have to do is replicate in Montana what we did in Wyoming.  A piece of cake.

The more I’m learning, the better I feel about our chances in committee.  Freshman Zac Perry is a committee Democrat from Hungry Horse, just north of Bigfork.  He won with 42% of the vote running against a libertarian Republican and Libertarian.  This dude is vulnerable, and he knows it.  Does he align himself, on this issue, with the Birchers and the Democrats or with the conservative and moderate Republicans?  His brief voting record so far is what you’d expect from someone from this part of Montana.  I think we can get Zac.  I look forward to having a good conversation with him.  He even looks like a good guy, someone I could be comfortable talking to.  My son Brendan will start ginning up calls from his constituents tomorrow.  We have a real shot at this guy.  And I think we’ll get Theresa Manzella as well.  Her district is crawling with Birchers, but she’s not one herself.  They’re just the only constituents she’s heard from on this.

We may argue and lobby our way past the committee, but to win on the floor it’s going to take strong support from the public.  I’m going to try to get the press really interested in this story.  Matthew says they love writing stories about fights inside the Republican caucus.  This is a fight between normal Republicans and kool-aid Republicans, so it will appeal to them.  It’s got national implications, as I’ll explain to the reporters.  It’s Montana or bust for the BBA.  Hell, Kasich was just there pushing it.  It involves an issue, federal spending, which a lot of people care about.  Article V itself is a little exotic.  The army of Birchers we’re expecting at the hearing adds some local color.  I hope they all come dressed in camo, as members of the Montana Militia.  I hope they’re armed.  I hope they issue threats.  If I was a little younger I wouldn’t mind some fisticuffs with these whack jobs, as long as it was on camera.

I get carried away.

South Dakota House, 38-31.  We counted on Hal Wick, and he came through.  Wyoming House, 44-16.  A lot bigger margin than we were expecting.  Very, very encouraging.  We’re confident of Senate passage in both, so we will soon need only eight more.

I spoke today with Idaho House Ways and Means Chair Christy Perry, who will be taking point.  She asked for a couple things, which we sent her.  Idaho adjourns in about two months, so the pressure is on.  She thinks we need to shoot it quickly through the House, and then take up the main fight in the Senate.  Speaker Bedke has made this a priority bill for House leadership, so we should be OK there.  NFIB lobbyist Suzi Budge has maintained all along that the House will be a lot easier than the Senate.  Bill Fruth says he’s willing to go to Boise with Natelson, so we’ll need to set that up, along with everything else we’re doing in Montana.  If the Wyoming vote is a sign of things to come, we could get Idaho this year.  Palin could help, and would, I believe, if we could get a chance to make our case to her.

Until we get through Montana, it will remain our top priority.  Fruth and Natelson are teaming up in the Capitol at noon on Monday.  That’s our best shot.

Virginia’s starting to look interesting.  We’re out of committee in both Houses, and may get floor votes as early as Friday.  The House looks within reach.  The Senate is a throw of the dice.  If by some chance we could steal Virginia it would be a shocker, and a sign of major momentum behind this whole movement.

Getting it done in 2015 was always a long shot.  It could still happen, but only if we get major support, and quickly.  From a partisan Republican standpoint, 2015 is massively better than 2016.  If we do it in 2015 there will be an actual proposed amendment which the Democrat would have to take a stand on.  If it’s 2016 the Democrat can say she’ll keep an open mind until she sees what’s actually proposed.  So if there were any really smart Republicans out there, who had money, they’d be climbing aboard.

It’s amazing how dumb some of these rich guys are.  Foster Friess, bankrolling Santorum?  Sheldon Adelson, backing Gingrich?  They get behind some of the most politically idiotic things you can think of.  It makes you wonder how they made all their money.

There’s got to be one smart one.