Ebola

A Liberian died from Ebola in Dallas, two nurses were infected, and on cable news it’s all ebola all the time.  When cable news gets hold of a story it won ‘t let go, so this will probably continue for the 17 days until the election.  Because Obama refuses to isolate the West African countries where it comes from, he’s hurting the Democrat brand.  I think he doesn’t want to stigmatize Africans because of his solidarity with them — it’s racial.  And it’s bullshit, and people know it.  He’ll cave  — he has to — but in the meantime he’s hurting himself and his party.

More wind to build the wave.  The way this wind is blowing we should pick up not only Kentucky, but Maine or Washington as well.  Maybe even Oregon.  This will not only expand the playing field, it should help convince the money boys that Article V is real.  You have to do a sophisticated, and optimistic, analysis to conclude we can get Article V with the playing field we’ve got.  Add two or three more states and more people will believe.

This election features the Democrat strategy of 2012 — don’t run on your record, or your platform.  The issue is the opponent, the Republican.  Obama won because he demonized Romney even before the Republican Convention, and a lot of upper Midwest working class whites did not vote.  And his turnout operation was groundbreaking.

I turned my back on politics, and gave up on this country, after 2012.  A year ago, when I realized the full scope of the Obamacare fiasco, I figured we had another shot.  This election is it.  If we don’t get a big wave, with all the advantages we have, I’ll be tempted to give up again.

A guy back east named John Aglialoro claims he’s willing to drop a hundred million on something like Article V.  Lew Uhler talked to him, and thinks he hasn’t really thought it through.  Aglialoro is having a “Liberty Congress” in Philly on Nov. 11th.  Most of the conservative think tanks and activist organizations have been invited.  Biddulph, Uhler and probably some others will be there for the Task Force.  Bill Fruth thinks it might be a setup, that Aglialoro is already sold on CoS.  We’ll see.  If we get a fair hearing we win on the merits.

Developments

Oklahoma:  Lew Uhler has connections to a group of oil and gas guys who have basically taken over the state politics of Oklahoma.  He says they will be able to overcome the heavy Birch/Eagle Forum presence in the legislature.  If he’s right we’ve got a chance.  Retiring Sen. Coburn has aligned himself with our friendly rivals, the Convention of States (CoS).  But I think he’ll help us once he understands the situation.  This is one of three problem states, along with Idaho and Arizona.

Wisconsin:  Sponsor Rep. Chris Kapenga has reached out to incoming members of the State Senate, and got strong support.  With our nemesis, Sen. Grothman, going off to Congress, Chris says he’ll have no problem.  We’re counting on him for our 25th.

South Carolina:  John Steinberger is Chairman of the Charleston Republican Party and the IamAmerican man in SC.  He’s sharp, committed, connected.  He’s close to Sen. Grooms, our sponsor, and they seem to have a good handle on the situation.  We failed last year because of poor planning and lack of time.  This legislature is unique in the way it operates, so we have to trust Steinberger and Grooms.  I’ve met Steinberger and believe in him.  SC will be 26.

Montana:  Brent Mead of the Montana Policy Institute is our man in Montana.  He’s reached out to the Montana ALEC Chair, Sen. Roger Webb, and it looks like he’ll be our sponsor.  We’ll have a big cc in a week or so, including Rob Natelson, and figure strategy.  This is the one state I feel personally responsible for, and one way or the other it will be 27.

South Dakota:  Former sponsor retiring Rep. Hal Weeks is as dedicated as anyone on the Task Force, and continues to do yeoman work.  Hal gets us to 28.

Wyoming:  Susan Gore of the Wyoming Policy Institute has a lot of clout, and is unsold on Article V.  We’ve got to bring her around.  I think we will — I’m going to ask Natelson to reason with her.  She’s not a Bircher or Eagle Forum, so she can listen.  But Wyoming is so overwhelmingly Republican I think it be, in the end, 29.

Add Utah and North Dakota and we’re three short, at 31.  If we got Arizona, Oklahoma, and Idaho we’d make it, but I’m not sure we can get all three.  Virginia is a long shot in 2015, but their legislative elections in November, 2015 — with Article V an issue — mean we should get them in 2016.  If the Kentucky House flips R, we should win there.  To win West Virginia would require a political realignment in the West Virginia Senate, with Democrats switching parties.  A long shot.

But if, seven months from now, we’re at 31, I think the cavalry arrives.  Then we’ll win.

Restoration

It’s a word that belongs in the campaign theme of the Republican nominee in 2016.  As in “The Restoration of America”, or “Restoring Freedom”.

Obama sought to transform America, and to an extent he succeeded.  The reversal of a transformation is a restoration.

Political revolutions often appeal to a return to better days in olden times.  The American Revolution was fought, in part, to defend the ancient liberties of British freemen.  A restoration is a return to better ways.  Politically, in 2016, it will mean repealing Obamacare, radical change to the tax code (with the goal of abolishing the IRS), the rebirth of federalism, and wholesale downsizing of the size and scope of the federal government.

Article V will play a role in the Restoration.

War is hell

When you’re coming on strong, as the R’s are, in October, you’re afraid of surprises.  I think the D’s, because of Obama’s War, will get a surprise.  There’s an isolated town on the Syria/Iraq border, full of tens of thousands of Kurds, women, and children, that ISIS is about to take.  Obama’s War is against ISIS, and if they win this victory we’re losing the war  — it’s our war, even if it’s Obama’s.

For the Low Information Voter, and especially for security moms, the images which would come out of this town would turn them hard against Obama.  He will have allowed our enemy in war to perpetrate mass slaughter on our allies in the war — the Kurds.  And the women and children.  It won’t be pretty.

I hope none of this comes to pass.  But it’s only a hope.

Put up or shut up

Rep. Kraig Powell of Heber City, Utah may be our best sponsor, and when we came up short last year I told him, “I’ll be back.”

So I may wind up spending a week in Salt Lake City lobbying.  I think I’ll probably have to do the same in Montana.  If the legislators will give me a fair hearing, if they haven’t been captured by the Birchers/Eagle Forum crowd, I’m confident it will work.

It’s a big commitment, but, what the hell.  It’s not like I’m making such a huge sacrifice.  Bill Fruth and Dave Biddulph have done more.  I made a promise to Kraig that I have to keep, and Montana is the one state we just have to get this year.  If we don’t get it I don’t think we’ll get to 34 before 2017 — two and a half years.  Even if we’re one or two short in 2016, it can still be a big political issue that year, if the Presidential candidate chooses to talk about it.  And that would probably depend on the extent to which voters are even aware of it.

Publicity is what we seek.  I’ve spent a fair amount of time trying to think of some publicity stunt, but have failed.

The election is four weeks from tomorrow.  This particular midterm will go down as a vote of no confidence in Obama.  Part of it will, I think, be racial — a white backlash against Eric Holder’s blatantly pro-black policies, against the Ferguson Missouri riots, and against affirmative action generally.

And against the affirmative action President specifically.