Author: Fritz Pettyjohn

I’ve been obsessing about a wave election for months.  I haven’t been counting on DE and MD, and without them we’re one short.  We have to win the Kentucky House to get to 34.  (Bill Fruth assures me that Mississippi is a lay up.  I believe him.)

The way I see it we were always in good shape to get Kentucky, wave or no wave.  I won’t go into details, but we’ve got a lot going for us there.  But even with KY, we’ve got no margin for error.  We would have to get all 12 states that are targets.

A well researched article in today’s WaPo says we’re going to get Maine and Washington, as well as Kentucky.  That’s what waves do.  We’ll also get the West Virginia House, but come up short in the Senate.  West Virginia will come in to play when some West Virginia State Senators switch parties and give the R’s a majority.  It’s happened in several southern states, Kentucky most recently.  U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin may lead the way, for all we know.  Because of Obama the Democrat brand is toxic in West Virginia.  So this is not a fantasy.

I think every “spare” target we acquire increases our chances dramatically.  The problem is, shit happens.  Grothman costs us Wisconsin.  Biggs costs us Arizona.  We can’t assume that we won’t run into the same thing in one or more of our 12 targets.  We need a margin of error.

That’s what waves do.

Dave Biddulph gave the Task Force a report on his talk with John Aglialoro, organizer of the 11-11 Liberty Congress in Philly.  He succeeded in convincing him to invite ALEC and NFIB, both of which he was unaware of.  It will be limited to 35 or so participants, including Dave, Lew Uhler, and either Bill Fruth or State Sen. Kevin Lundberg of Colorado, co-founder of the Article V Caucus.

Dave will be presenting our case, as will Nick Dranias for the Compact initiative, and Mark Meckler for CoS.  Dranias has agreed to promote an “all of the above” strategy, asking the assemblage to support us all.  Meckler will not agree.  In a sense, he really can’t, since that would undermine one of the premises of his own organization — to wit, only a handful of our 24 Resolutions can be aggregated, that is, counted. Natelson won’t be coming, so we’ll need to rely on Prof. Randy Barnett to refute this claim.  Barnett is more widely known than Natelson — he’s a heavyweight, though not an Article V specialist.  It is absolutely critical that he is prepared, and willing, to confute the charge of non-aggregation.  Once that has been rebutted, the logic of getting behind the Task Force as the first train through the Article V tunnel is overwhelming — Meckler really doesn’t have a leg to stand on.

I’d heard there might be a problem with the Mississippi Resolution, as there was with Florida.  Florida has been fixed, Mississippi hasn’t.  Add one to our list of targets.  Mississippi shouldn’t  be a problem.  Hopefully Rep. Joe Harrison, Master Legislator,  of neighboring Louisiana can set us up there.

Kevin Lundberg has agreed to help in Wyoming.  He represents an adjoining area of Colorado, and has numerous contacts in Wyoming.  He’s a smart, conscientious guy, and I feel better about Wyoming now.

Another day, and nothing to upset the narrative of this election.  I can’t trust my own judgment on this.  I’m so invested in the wave that I see signs of it all over the place.  I have an excellent imagination.

But it gets fevered sometimes.

You won’t be disappointed if you do.

Expecting the worst means assuming Maryland rescinds.  Very blue state, with former Gov. O’Malley wanting to run for President.  We’re down to 23.

It also means assuming one of the Resolutions we’re counting is defective — could happen.  Down to 22.

So even if we got all our target states we’re at 33.  That’s why the election in 5 days is critical.  We’ve got to win the Kentucky House to get to 34.  Maine, Washington, Oregon — any or all could flip in a wave election.  If we only get Kentucky that means we have to win every target state, including tough ones like Idaho, Arizona, and Oklahoma.  Can be done, but it will, in my reluctant opinion, require more than the Task Force currently has going for it.  We need help.  Having a couple states to spare would make it a lot more realistic.

Catch a wave and you’re sittin’ on top of the world.

John Aglialoro made a fortune making exercise equipment.  John Mackey co-founded Whole Foods.  Both are libertarians.  Aglialoro is hosting the Liberty Congress in Philly on 11-11.  Mackey will be there.  They’ve got oodles of money and want to save their country.

The Congress is about Article V.  Nick Dranias will present on his “interstate compact” approach.  Mark Meckler will present for CoS.  Dave Biddulph will close for the BBA Task Force.

Mike Ferris of CoS has already gotten to Aglialoro, but he wouldn’t be calling the Congress if he didn’t want to explore alternatives.

I think this is big.  If they don’t quite “get” Article V yet, Aglialoro and Mackey will come away from the Congress convinced that Article V is the answer.  They’re very bright, patriotic guys.  They may not know a lot about politics, but they’re quick learners, I hope.

Worst case is they decide to go whole hog on CoS.  Best case they fund the Task Force.  But they’ll decide to push Article V.  They probably won’t just jump in — they’ll take some time.  But once the Task Force gets to 27, 28, 29……they’ll get it.  Do the BBA through Article V and everything falls into place.

Money talks.

Spoke today with Sen. Fred Emerich, ALEC co-chair of Wyoming.  He’s concerned about a runaway, but reasonable.  He’s the kind of guy that Natelson, or even I, could bring around.  He’s a college buddy of Appropriations Chair Eli Bebout, who we’re targeting as our sponsor.  Bebout is set to move up to Senate Majority Leader, and Emerich says he would bring people around if he’s the sponsor.  Emerich was friendly, encouraging me to go ahead and make the cold call to Bebout.

Natelson only lives 100 miles or so from Cheyenne, so he’ll have no problem making an appearance when the session starts.  I’m betting he hits it out of the park.  He doesn’t want to testify at committee hearings, since he feels minds are already made up.  I’ll see if the Wyoming Liberty Group would sponsor a round table discussion, seminar — maybe even a debate.

Wyoming’s legislature has a forty day session in odd years, when substantive matters are dealt with.  A 20 day session in even years dealing only with budgetary issues, unless 2/3 vote to take up substance.  So here’s the backup plan if we don’t get Wyoming in 2015.  We have the Republican Governor call a special session, to convene immediately after the regular 2016 session adjourns.  That way there’s no real added expense, and we don’t need 2/3.  If we’re at 32 or 33 I think we get a special session.  This plan is not available in Montana, which has a Democratic Governor.  So Montana remains the must get state of 2015.

People are saying the Amazing Democratic Turnout Machine will rescue the D’s from that big wave we see coming.  But turnout never beats a wave.

Kobani looks like it won’t fall, thank God.  That would have been ugly.  Just a hunch, but I think the White House realized that the fall of Kobani would have been a huge political hit on Obama.  So they told the Pentagon to do what was necessary.  For once, political calculation does some actual good.

Once the World Series is over, no later than Wednesday the 29th, the undecided will decide.  If there are more cases of Ebola, it would turn into a rout.  Barring that, for the life of me I can’t think of anything that changes in the next two weeks.

And if nothing changes the wave roars.