Miscellaneous

I think Gov. Kasich of Ohio wants to run for President.  I don’t know that he will.  A lot depends.  If he does, I think one of his issues will be Article V, and his support of it.  It’s possible Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana is thinking the same thing.

As far as I know, it’s never been an issue.  But here’s how it might be in 2016.  Either we get to 34, and have a the first Convention of States in American history, or we don’t.  Either way, it still works.

If we have a Convention, it will be a big deal — lots of press, lots of speculation about what it all means.  I’m assuming the Convention goes well.  After appropriate deliberation, it passes a Balanced Budget Amendment, which is put out to the states for ratification.  Then it adjourns.  All the worries about a runaway convention are put to bed.  It was all bullshit, designed to scare people.  With that behind us, what’s next?  Obviously, another Convention of States, to propose another of the Liberty Amendments.  Actually, I suspect there will be competing proposals.  One group will be pushing a Resolution proposing the Madison Amendment.  Somebody else will be banging the term limits drum.  As the Chinese say, “Ding pot chong pow!”, or, “Let a hundred flowers bloom.”  Hell, I’d like to repeal the 16th Amendment.  If my health holds, I’ll get involved with some people to push it.  Repeal the Income Tax!  What’s not to like about that?  The damned progressives sold the thing with lies.  Let’s get rid of the son of a bitch.

This is all a big deal.  Lots of press.  The New York Times will have a nervous breakdown.  The former Enron advisor who writes for them will slit his girly man wrists.  People out in flyover country, the Tea Party, regular Americans, and a lot of previously cynical people are going to be all jacked up.  It’s a national issue, one that candidates for President must address.

Naturally, the Republicans will be all for it.  How could they not be?  2/3 of the States have pulled an Article V, first time ever! 

What’s Hillary going to say?  I have no idea.  But whatever she decides, she loses.  If she backs Article V, she loses the left.  The teachers, the civil rights gang, the abortion lobby, the environmentalists, the public employee unions, the trial lawyers, Hollywood airheads — they all hate Article V.  That’s her base.  She can’t abandon them.

But if she opposes Article V, she opposes the people.  She’s opposing the lifeline the Framers gave to the states, and the people.  This is political poiison.

So what if we’re short of 34?  The Republican campaigns on a balanced budget amendment, and the use of Article V to get it.  Hell, 65% of Democrats want a balanced budget amendment.  It’s a great issue to run on, make the center piece of your campaign .  It’s a winner.

And Ms. Hillary?  She’s got to oppose it.  And that, along with a whole lot of other things, sink her.

After the Republican wins, we get to 34, and the whole scene described above takes place.  With the President of the United States, whoever he is, as our main cheerleader, we pass a bunch of Liberty Amendments, and save our country.

This could happen .

College YR’s, and their libertarian brethren, the Young Americans for Liberty, can be a great resource for us.  I’ve been racking my brain trying to figure out how to get to the national and regional leadership.  I think I’ve got it.

In Oregon I cold emailed the YR President at UO and got a response.  I’m following up, and hope to be able to arrange to meet the members.  I’d do it in conjunction with the Larson show and a trip to Salem to meet legislators and staff.  I think I can get these kids all fired up on Article V, and the BBA.  I’ll be asking them to translate their enthusiasm into hard work for Oregon state legislative candidates.  If it goes as well as I hope, I’ll ask the tendentiously named leader, Caleb J. N. Huegel (I’ve got to get him to drop either the “J” or the “N”) to talk to his regional or national YR leaders.  The goal is to get the whole college YR movement actively involved.  This could work.

I’ve got a plan for the YALers too.  I’m going to ask Sen. Marv Hagedorn in Idaho to invite the Idaho State Chairman of the Young Americans for Liberty, Dane Gower of Idaho State, to testify before the Idaho House or Senate Judiciary Committees.  He’ll be backing our resolution, talking about how his generation is the one that’ll be picking up the tab on all this bullshit.  I’m pretty sure we could get some local TV coverage.  If the kid looks good, sounds good, it would be a great boost for him, personally.  Hell, I wish I would have had a chance to do something like that when I was his age.  Anyway, the idea is for him to tell his YAL regional and national leaders all about it, and how Article V is so kick ass.

This could work.

Once we reach 34, and a Convention of States is convened, its only official function will be to propose a balanced budget amendment.  But, once this is accomplished, and the Convention officially adjourns, the assembled delegates from the 50 states can meet unofficially.  They can debate, and recommend, what comes next.  An amendment to limit Congressional terms?  The Madison Amendment, making it easier for the states to amend the Constitution?  The Federalism amendment, allowing 3/5 of the states to repeal federal laws or regulations?  Mark Levin’s “The Liberty Amendments” has ten separate amendments which could be considered.

While a recommendation from the delegates to the Convention would be non-binding, it would give impetus to one or more of the possible amendments.  It seems to me that once the state legislators of this country have successfully exercised the power given to them by Article V, they’re going to want to do it again.  Collectively, they have the power to fundamentally change the direction of this country.  If the election of 2014 has put the Republicans in control of Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Maine, they will have a rare window of opportunity to do things that might seem, to some, as radical.

I’m talking about repealing the 16th Amendment, which gave us the income tax.  Congress has used this power to control our lives.  It’s how they raise all their campaign cash.  It’s incredibly wasteful and inefficient, creating all kinds of perverse incentives.  It’s a major drag on  the economy.  And it’s the ultimate infringement of our liberty.

To replace the revenue, a consumption tax, or value-added tax, would be needed.  If Congress botches it, their product could be repealed and replaced by an Article V  amendment.

Repealing the 16th Amendment may be a bridge too far.  The country may not be ready for such a massive disruption.  It’s hard to say, this far out.  But maybe, just maybe, the appetite for reform will be strong enough to make it doable.  If so, this whole Article V movement will need a name.

Like the Revolution of the States.

 

 

One of the few clouds on the political horizon is the growing schism in the Republican Party between the Tea Party and Chamber of Commerce “moderates.”  It will play out in 2014 in Republican primaries all over the country.  The Tea Party will back insurgent candidates, the Chamber pragmatists.  The same thing happened in 2012, with mixed results.  The Tea Party gave us stars like Cruz and Lee, and duds like Angle in Nevada and Akin in Missouri.

I’m with the Tea Party, up to a point.  The Buckley Rule says you nominate the most conservative candidate who can win.  The Tea Party doesn’t seem to pay much attention to the “can win” part.  Hopefully some of these folks will have learned their lesson from the last election, when we lost seats we should have won.  A good test case will be Alaska, where Joe Miller is trying to be the Tea Party candidate for Senate.  He’s trying to repeat his victory over incumbent moderate Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the 2012 primary.  After he got the nomination he proceeded to lose in the general to her write-in campaign, which is virtually unheard of.  He made some truly goofball mistakes, and carried some baggage that didn’t come out in the primary.

Since I spent 27 years up there, most of it in Republican politics, I have a pretty good feel for Tea Party thinking there.  And I don’t have an answer.  Some of these folks are so hardcore you can’t even talk to them .  Others will listen to reason.  But they’ll only listen to those they trust.  And they don’t trust too many people.

I got a lot of them to trust me.  I earned that trust.  Too bad I’m not in Alaska, I could be of help.  As best I can tell, Miller’s got a shot at the nomination, and if he gets it he’ll probably lose to Begich.  And that could cost us the majority.

Oh, well.  I don’t really care that much about the Senate.  I care about state legislatures, and, from what I can tell, the Tea Party is an unalloyed good in these contests.  The wave I’m expecting wouldn’t b e nearly as big without them

And I’ll trade a state legislature for a U. S. Senator any day.

An encouraging sign for a BBA through Article V is its embrace by Govs. Kasich and Pence.  As our Resolution moves through the Wisconsin legislature I have very little doubt that Gov. Walker will join them.  IMHO the 2016 Presidential nominee of the Republican Party will be one of these three.  They’re all solid conservatives with long and impressive resumes.

Sen. Ted Cruz is more dynamic than any of them, but I bet that his thin resume, similar in many respects to Obama’s when he won the nomination, will be a serious problem for him.  And there is a widespread feeling, and not just among “moderates”, that he made a major error in leading the government shutdown.  He had no end game, he may have cost Ken Cuccinelli the governorship of Virginia, and his goal — delaying Obamacare — was actually against the political interest of the Republican Party.  Letting Obamacare go into effect has been the greatest boon to the Republicans since the epic failure of the Carter Presidency.  The shutdown, in retrospect, looks to  be a self-serving rookie mistake. 

Sen. Rand Paul doesn’t look ready, and he seems to know it.

All the talk about NJ Gov. Christie is crap.  He’s an East Coaster to his bones, and it won’t sell in the South and West.  The NRA will take him out without breaking a sweat.

LA Gov. Bobby Jindal has a great deal going for him, but he hasn’t managed to be as successful a Governor as the other three mentioned above.  He’s made a lot of enemies in the Republican legislature, and, in all candor, he’s exotic.  It shouldn’t be a liability, but it is.  I think Republicans will want to play it safe, and not break new ground by nominating an Indian -American.

So the big three are Kasich, Pence, and Walker.  Assuming Walker comes aboard behind our Resolution, all three backers of our cause.  And, as we begin to get closer to 34, and we start showing up on the radar, it sure as hell seems to me that they will begin to bang the drum for Article V.  Right now, with Washington so widely despised, it’s kind of a no-brainer. 

Article V will become a de facto part of the Republican nomination process, embraced by all — part of the Republican consensus.  We hope to get to 34 early in 2015, but if we run into headwinds, and are forced to fight into 2016, this could be big.