Miscellaneous

Since we’re counting on flipping as many as five state legislatures into Red, the Nov. elections loom large.  There seems to be a consensus that the D’s chances are tightly bound to Obama’s approval rating, currently in the mid-forties.  For a really big wave, that  number needs to fade a bit.  If it starts edging up, we could even lose the Senate again.

So what’s going to move that number in the next nine months?

1)  Foreign affairs?  I can see a lot of problems, not a lot of opportunities.  I’ll bet Obama doesn’t get any upside from overseas.  A lot of bad things could hit the fan, especially in the Middle East. 

2)  The economy?  Everything I see says this won ‘t help Obama much.  The best he can hope for is modest recovery, which I can’t see giving him much upside.  Obamacare, and all the federal regulations, will prevent any real rebound.  So, more of the same, with the possibility of something blowing up ever present.

3)  Obamacare?  ok, I’m a fanatic about this.  I follow the damn thing as closely as I can; I read everything that’s out there.  Jim Capretta above all.  And Avik Roy.  I swear these guys aren’t partisan hacks.  They’re legitimate experts, whose predictions have been spot on.  They say it gets worse.  Everything I’ve learned tells me they’re right.

4)  Republican implosion.  I think the R’s have realized they can’t win in a showdown with Obama, on the debt ceiling g, spending, or just about anything else.  It doesn’t matter if they’re right.  The MSM is still too powerful.  So I think they avoid shooting themselves in the foot.

5)  Another 9/11.  We do rally around a President, any President, at such times.  The big east coast hurricane the last week of the 2012 campaign certainly helped Obama (thanks, Christie.)  You never know. 

6)  A black swan.  Something nobody saw coming.  Something off the wall.  An assassination  attempt.  Michelle gets cancer.  A Tea Party member blows up a federal building.  I remember the political climate of early 1995.  Things did not look good for Clinton  and the D’s.  People were pissed off at the federal government.  The Waco slaughter was only a year old, and it stunk.  A teenager was shot and killed at Ruby Ridge by the feds in a gun sting gone wrong.  Things were moving our way.  It felt good.  Then came Timothy McVeigh, blowing up the federal building in Oklahoma City.  He was a righty, a militia guy.  He was used to discredit all of us .  It worked.  The MSM went overtime, and Clinton caught a wind which started him on his reelection run.

Barring that swan, I’m willing to bet that Obama’s barely in the 40’s in November.  We win, big.  Good stuff begins to happen , including our Article V campaign.  1946 was a huge year in American political history, and is much underappreciated.  We could do even better 68 years later.  These things take a long time.

You gotta believe.

 

Rep. Gary Banz (OK) told us in Friday’s cc that Dr. Coburn will be in Oklahoma City on Monday.  He’ll give a talk to the Republican Caucus of the State Legislature.

This is not that unusual.  Ted Stevens did it a couple times when I was in the AK legislature.  What’s different is that

1)  Dr. Coburn is deeply respected by almost everyone in that Caucus.  He’s a great man.  Period.

2)  His second Senate term doesn’t end for two years, but he’s resigning his seat because of his fight with cancer.  There will be a poignancy in this meeting.  It’s the beginning of a long goodbye.

3)  We think he’s going to come out, strongly, for our Article V BBA.  We’re hoping he makes it a highlight of his remarks.

So I think Gary should write a column about it and submit it to The Oklahoman, where it might be noticed by the national press.  Even if it doesn’t catch on nationally, it will help us in several other ways.  But I think I need to really write the column.  You may not know it from reading this blog, but when I put my mind to it I can write. 

So I emailed Gary with the idea, and I’m waiting to hear what he thinks.  We’d clear the whole thing with Coburn’s press people, of course.  I’d love to write that article.  I really, really like Cob urn, and I would make him look good.  And I’d dramatize the whole thing.  I won’t actually be there, so I’ll just make it all up (fact checking with Gary, of course).

When Stevens was running for reelection in ’86 he met with all the Republican legislators in Juneau.  Closed door, off the record.  He wanted our support — there was no other reason to meet us — but he wouldn’t really need it, he made that clear.  What a little asshole.  His whole attitude was so obnoxious I felt like walking up to him and twisting his pug nose.  Finally he said, “I don’t know who’s going to run against me.  For all I know it might be somebody in this room.”

He was talking, mainly, to me.  He couldn’t stand me, and I didn’t try to hide how I felt about him.  And I was the logical guy to run, if anybody did.  You’d have to take Ted on from the right, and I had that territory pretty well staked.  And I was a lawyer, 40 years old, with a nice family, ambitious and smart.  So I said, “Ted, would you agree to spend no more than ten million dollars on your campaign if I ran against you?”

That pissed him off.  “No, no I wouldn’t,” he snarled.  I just kind of laughed.

Ten years later the son of a bitch got his revenge.  I’d been writing a bi-weekly column in the Anchorage Daily News for about  six years.  It was all about politics.  It made me kind of the intellectual godfather of the Alaska right.  And I got my digs in on Stevens.  So, in a meeting with the editors and publisher of the ADN, the publisher asks Stevens, “Is there anythin g we can do for you?”  And he told them to fire me.  And they did.  (One of the guys in the room, Mike Carey, told me all this).

So, Stevens got in the last punch.  I never really laid a glove on him.

What an asshole.

 

A Great Living American, one of the few in D.C. immune to Potomac Fever, forced to leave the Senate because of his health.  I’ve done what I could to encourage our fine OK sponsor, Rep. Gary Banz, to convince him to testify for our Resolution.  And Gary has pulled it off.  The good Senator will be in Oklahoma City on Monday to speak to the Republican caucus.  We fully expect him to come out strong for our cause.  Gary will try to get something in writing.  This will no doubt get a good deal of press in OK.  Too bad we don’t have a press agent, because this should be a national story, at least on Fox.

It’s a national story because Coburn is recognized by friend and foe as a man of integrity, who sincerely believes in the good fight.  And in the final months of his political career in Washington, that started in the 90’s, he’s coming home to push Article V as our last best hope.  In a fair world, this would be a big deal.

I was on KSOO in Sioux Falls yesterday, and I think I came on  a little too strong, a frequent problem for me.  The interview, with Rick Knobe, former Mayor, was going pretty well, when he decided to bring me down a peg.  He told of a conversation he’d had with a former high ranking federal politician.  He explained to his listeners that this guy had won a lot higher office than I ever have (or, to be fair, that he himself had achieved).  This guy says a Federal BBA won’t work because the federal budget, and federal spending, are so en twined with the economy that the BBA would screw everything up.  This kind of appeal to authority always pisses me off.  I was already in a bad mood at some news out of VA.  So I said that it sounded as though this guy was pretty knowledgeable, so what was his solution?  Except I said it a little too strong, came at it too hard.  We went to a break, and then wrapped up the interview after a total of 20 minutes.  We could have gone a lot longer, as it was going pretty good.  But I had “topped” the host, a big no-no.  I think I could tell he didn’t like it.  Oh well.  Lesson learned.  Again.

I got a big mouth.

Based on the fact that my appearance on Fred Forman’s show in Yankton did in fact result in a number of calls to the SD legislature, I’m going to push to get on in other states.  I had a lengthy and productive talk with Rep. Powell today in Utah, and he has agreed to try and get me on the “Rush Limbaugh of Utah”, Rod Arquette.  Rep. Harrison in LA is going to try and get me on Robinette’s show in New Orleans, and Sen. Hagedorn is arranging for me to get on a couple of stations in Boise.  Based on my experience in SD, these should all go well.  Having been a host, I know how to guest.  This should build on itself, success breeding more opportunity.  I’ll be on KSOO in Sioux Falls tomorrow, and will really try to get people to call in to Pierre.   Hal’s Reso is heard in State Affairs on Friday, so the timing should be good.  I’m going to try to parlay that in to convincing Rep. Banz in OK and Rep. Thorpe in AZ to make a real effort to get me on in their states.  If, as I expect, all my appearances produce results, this may mean I go into TN as well.  Maybe SC too.  And I’ll definitely be using all these appearances to our advantage in MT, ND, and WY this summer.  Also, I’d like to be on in WA, OR, MN, and KY.  I really think this will be helpful, and I’m anxious to get it really rolling.  And I’ll get better with practice.

Troubling email from Hagedorn in ID about a “brutal” committee hearing.  I really don’t know what this is about, but we may have a real fight on our hands there.  We’ll do all we can .  I’m going to talk to Lew about sending our “letter” that was designed for candidates and tweaking it so we can send it to sitting legislators in ID an d UT.  Idaho is Birch country, I guess, and it could be tough.

Rep. Powell in Utah seems very committed an d intelligent.  He wants to work closely with me.  I agreed to go to Salt Lake to testify.  We’ll try to get Sens. Hatch and Lee.  Powell is going to talk to the Gov., as well as the Senate President.

No one said this would be easy.

Things are looking up in Utah, one of our problem states.  Rep. Kraig Powell is introducing our Resolution.  Sponsor Rep. Ivory will handle the Delegate Limitation  Act.  Powell is a three termer, who sports a Ph. D. as well as a J.D.  I’ll be on a conference call with him and his aide, Tony Castagno, tomorrow.  If we can get U.S. Sen. Lee to come out for us, it would be a huge help.  He’s got the cred with the hard right caucus goers who put him in the Senate.  Lew Uhler is going to see if Sen. Hatch can get him on board.  The I Am American crew is planning a Utah event.  And I’ll do all I can to get on Utah talk radio.  Stay tuned.

In Kentucky Rep. Jim DeCesare has put in a Reso.  I emailed him and hope to hear back.  I know I don’t have the political savvy of someone like Mitch McConnell, but for God’s sake, how in the hell can he NOT want to dive in and help us.  He’s got a serious Tea Party primary challenger.  What better way to inculcate yourself with the budget hawks and hard right folks?  It’s so obvious.  Lew has talked of going back to Kentucky to give McConnell some sort of deficit fighter award from Lew’s NTLC.  I called Lew and asked him to see if he’s following through, and at the presser have Rep. DeCesare there, and have McConnell come out full bore for the BBA.  It would be big news in KY, and probably make Fox News as well. 

For the life of me I can’t see the down  side for McConnell.  And if he’s an old acquaintance of Lew, why not do him a favor as well. 

We’re not going to pass the KY House this year.  We all know that.  Speaker Stumbo won’t allow it.  But if we get traction on the issue, it could be a big part of a lot of KY House campaigns.

We want KY.  We only need to flip four House seats to get it.  I know McConnell wants to flip the House.  According to Barone’s Almanac, he set up the big party switch that gave us the KY Senate.

Come on, Mitch.  THINK!