Reality

AZ Senate Pres. Biggs wants to kill the bill.  SC Finance Chair Leatherman is holding us by the throat.  So our losses in SD and ID leave us, this year, with MI, WI, LA, TN, OK, and UT.  Even if we get UT (a long shot) we get to 27, seven short.  We need $ for 2015.  If we can get them, we can really run actual campaigns in ND, MT, WY, ID, and SD.  All four would get us to 32.  So we’ll need KY, MN, ME, WA, or OR.  The fact is without a big wave in Nov. we’re in trouble. 

More reason than ever to lay the groundwork in the five we hope come our way.  KY and WV pledge letters are in the mail.  If we don’t get a good response I’ll try and think of something else.  I’ll talk to Overington in WV and DeCesare in KY to see if they think the letters do any good.

This is going to be a long haul.

Salt Lake

A two day trip to the UT Capitol was productive, as I may have helped persuade a couple R’s to pass the Reso out of committee on a 5-4 vote.  On to the House floor.  Dave is tight with Sen. President Niederhauser, who has promised a vote.  They adjourn on 3-13, and a Senate vote would probably be in the last two days of the session.  After our losses in SD and ID a win in UT would be a huge boost.  Still a long shot, since the Eagle Forum is so well organized, and the UT caucus primary system gives organized activists a lot of clout.  We’re working with the UT CoS guy.  He was at the committee hearing and realizes his bill will go absolutely nowhere if we fail.  NFIB promises big help.  Lew Uhler is close to Sen. Hatch, and is trying to get him involved.  We’re trying to get Sen. Lee to help.   We’re doing all we can.

AZ passed the House 32-29, but the Senate Pres. plans to kill the bill.  We’ve got to get a way to turn him.  It may not happen, but we’ve got time to work on it.  We’re going to try and organize four Tea Party groups in his Senate district. 

TN is looking great, as House and Senate race each other to be the first to pass the bill.  I’ve got to get them to reach out to Glenn Reynolds, and get us an Instalanche.

SC Senate Finance Chair Leatherman is thus far impervious to our entreaties.  Bill Fruth is on top of this, and a lot of other things.  I’m calling him this weekend to strategize.

A couple weeks ago Rep. Yvette Herrell of NM told us of calling in to the Mark Levin talk radio show, getting right on the air, and having a good 5-6 minutes of air time.  I asked GA Sen. Bill Cowsert to call in and report on GA being 21.  Bill’s a geat guy.  Met him at ALEC in Dec.  He liked the idea.  I’d like it to be a tradition, every time we get another state the prime sponsor calls in to report.

Mailed the WV pledge letters today!  Now that’s something to celebrate.

I’m having a beer.

Lobbying and campaigning

Lobbying is getting legislators to vote for your bill.  Campaigning is about electing legislators to vote for your bill.  The Task Force has concentrated on lobbying.  We need to campaign.

This is where we can most effectively use Coburn — campaigning, not lobbying.  He needs his own group, to educate the voters, and win support from candidates.  I know!  He can call it the Reagan Project!

I gotta talk to this guy.

The test

UT Rep. Kraig Powell seems to  be an exceptionally earnest young man.  For some reason he seems to hold me in some esteem.  He quickly agreed to set me up to meet not only with the House Republican Caucus on Thursday, but with the Conservative Caucus Wed. morning at 7:00.  So I’ll get my shot at these guys.  The big one, for me, is the Conservative Caucus, because it presumably includes the hard right Birch sympathizers we have to get.  My own politics has always been hard right.  I used to say on my talk show that I was as conservative as you could be without being a nut.  So I should be able to relate to these guys.  My hope is that they’ll open up to me about their concerns of a runaway.  I know I won’t be able to completely disabuse them of this, but I’m hoping, and assuming, that the format of this meeting is informal, give and take.  So I’ll get a chance to show that the truly “hard right” stance is pro Article V.  As Sen. Cowsert (GA) told us on Friday, some of the GA legislators stated in the floor debate on our Reso that they did, in fact, remain concerned about a runaway.  But they were willing to take that risk, because the alternative — to do nothing — is even riskier.  Which is, of course, true.

The Task Force guys, Bill Fruth in particular, have been bearish on UT.  They think we have no chance without rallying Tea Party grass roots support.  They may be right.  But if I could somehow convince enough of these guys to pass the Reso in the House, I will have proved them wrong.  Naturally, I have an exaggerated opinion of my own persuasive skills. 

Utah is my test.

Tennessee and Idaho

Very good reports from TN and ID.   I think, barring something weird, we get TN.  Sen. Marv Hagedorn says everything’s on track in ID, and Typhoon Lew is there this weekend talking to the Tea Party.  This guy is amazing.  A former Navy Petty Officer, he really can relate to the regular folks you find at Tea Party events — normal, concerned, and patriotic Americans.  He speaks their language, is very animated, and knows how to make the case.  Lou Marin, a Great Living American.  By the time he leaves Idaho, the betting is he will have recruited a local to take an official role in the cause.  What a guy.  I look forward to seeing him again, at December’s ALEC meet, if not before.

GA Sen. Bill Cowsert reported on his success.  Two years ago the Tea Party fought him, and he failed.  This year the Tea Party was with him, and the vote in the House was something like 112 to 65.  Last year a political rival of his in the GA House (they were both thinking of running for the same Congressional seat) convinced the Speaker to kill the bill, and deny Bill an issue if he ran.  That’s over (she ran, he didn’t) so the Speaker let it slide.  This shows two things.  1)  We’ve got to get the Tea Party  2)  Obscure legislative rivalries can kill your bill just as easily as open opposition.  For all we know, this may be behind SC Senate Finance Chair Leatherman’s refusal to pass our bill out.  Sometimes it’s hard to get to the bottom of these things.  Only true in siders know what’s going on, and  most of them won’t talk.  Lesson:  if possible, when getting our sponsors in WY, ND, and MT, we should get presiding officers or powerful respected veterans.  Don’t settle for less.

Everybody’s still jacked about GA.