Miscellaneous

Now that I am, for the moment, in the Kasich camp, it’s worth comparing him to the rest of the field.  In ascending order:

Christie  — Not only will the NRA take him out, he’s got other problems.   “Double Down” was a pretty good book on the 2012 campaign.  It says when Romney vetted Christie as a possible VP pick, there were some questionable deals in Christie’s background, serious enough to eliminate him from consideration.  Joisey is a place where a lot of questionable things go on.  And I don’t think his bully act has legs.

Bush  — It’s not only that everybody is sick of Bushes.  He’ll have to defend his brother’s record.  Enormous deficits, bullshit policies like “No child left behind”.  And thousands of fine young Americans in an early grave because of his lunatic nation building.  He took the Republican brand down, and we’re just starting to get it back.  Fuggedaboutit.  Your dumb shit brother with his compassionate conservatism (read “soft”) ruined your chances.

Cruz  — I don’t really know why, but I don’t like the guy.  Smarmy, cocky, self-absorbed.  He’s a great example of why a high IQ is of such limited value in politics.  He lacks judgment.  He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know.  Call back in 2024.  And in the mean time, study up on Article V, smart guy.

Jindal  —  He’s on board with Article V, and that says a lot.   Impressive guy, smart as hell, but not much of a politician.  Good governors figure out how to work with their legislature.  From all I’ve heard, most of the R’s in the Louisiana legislature can’t stand the guy.  But what an HHS Secretary!

Walker  — Dullsville.  Too bad, but being an effective communicator is part of the job. A year ago I told Rep. Chris Kapenga, our guy in Wisconsin, that he needed a speech coach.  He said they’re working on it.  I haven’t seen any improvement.  Plus, for some reason he won’t come out for Article V.  That does not speak well of him.

Perry  — He’s all Texas, all the time.  W not only screwed his brother Jeb, but made people sick of the whole Texas thing.  Biddulph says he’s with us on Article V, so I’m sympathetic to him.  He’ll get over The Big Flub from 2012.  Good record and all, but a Governor in Texas doesn’t have all that much power, so he’s claiming credit for things he had little to do with.  And, did I mention , he’s from Texas.

Pence  — He gives a good speech, and is an out front guy on Article V.  Excellent record in Congress and as Governor.  But nothing stands out about the guy.  Why Mike Pence?  I don’t know.

Paul  — It’s between him and Kasich, as far as I’m concerned.  We are in a libertarian moment, and he’s timing it right.

Kasich  —  I always liked the guy.  He’s got a good attitude.  Plenty smart, good on his feet.  Good record, on the Budget Committee, and as Governor of the must win state for R’s.

And he’ll be campaigning for Article V.

Bill Fruth has a meeting Friday with Merle Madrid, Gov. Kasich’s public liaison.  He’s handling Kasich’s efforts on behalf of an Article V BBA, or, put another way, on our behalf.  Kasich has publicly committed to go on the campaign trail on this issue.  By establishing this line of communication, Bill, and the Task Force, will be able to assist Kasich, and make his travels more productive.

Our goals, and his, are, of course, not identical.  We want him to go to Boise, Cheyenne, Oklahoma City, Phoenix and Richmond.  Richmond, Virginia may appeal to him, as would Columbia, South Carolina (the third state on the nomination calendar, after Iowa and New Hampshire).  Bill checked with our man in South Carolina, Charleston County Republican Chairman John Steinberger.  He said, Come on down.  The Party would have an event for Kasich the evening after he testifies before the legislature (if that is, in fact, what he would do).

At the Liberty Congess in  Philly, Dick Morris said we’d get the public’s attention when the Presidential candidates start talking about our issue.  Even though he made a fool of himself with his confident predictions of a Romney win, Morris is no dope.  He played a major role in getting Clinton reelected.  And he’s right.  The media, Fox in particular, can’t wait to cover the Republican nomination fight.  It will drive ratings.  A horse race with so many legitimate contenders is fun to follow.  So a Kasich trip to Columbia would make news, even if it’s not, technically, presidential campaigning.  It’ll do.  For political junkies, it’s mainlining.

[In this vein, Dave Biddulph avers we’ll soon be getting help from retiring Sen. Coburn of Oklahoma.  It won’t get as much play, but he could help, a lot.  Insiders in Conservatism Inc. have respect for Coburn.  He’s as straight a shooter as there is.  He’s a local hero back in Oklahoma.  All the Republicans love this guy.  If he could get us Oklahoma, we’d be tickled.  I actually don’t think we get Oklahoma without him.]

In the mean time, what are the leventy-leven contenders doing?  Doing all the same old same old.  Iowa, New Hampshire, New Hampshire, Iowa.

I’ve been trying to get into Kasich’s head.  Hell yes, he wants to run.  He’s 62, and it’s now or never.  He made a token run 16 years ago, and learned from the experience.  But announcing early would be wrong for him.  He’s a Governor.  It’s a big job.  And campaigns burn cash.  He can’t be sure how he’d fit in the field until the field is formed.  Are Bush and Christie in or out?

So he waits.  But he’s stuck in the backwater of Columbus.  How does he get out and test the waters, without appearing to do so?  Keep his name, and the prospect of his running, in the conversation?

Campaign across the country for the most important part of the Constitution, Article V.  And a BBA.  The answers.

I think I am getting into Kasich’s head.  And what I’m finding is one smart son of a bitch.

He’ll be the mainstream conservative, the go to guy when Bush and Christie flame out  — and flame out they will.  Bush fatigue is not as prevalent as Clinton fatigue, but close.  And the NRA will take out Christie  —  a gun grabber is not going to win the Republican nomination.  Those Midwest white guys who refused to vote for Romney are a key demographic.  They all have guns.

Everyone else in the field will try to be Captain Conservative.  Kasich will have the more moderate vote all to himself.

He won’t allow himself to be called a moderate, of course.  And to prove his conservative bona fides he’s the one guy who grabbed the BBA through Article V and ran with it.  If he’s as smart as I think he is he will talk as much about Article V as he does about the BBA.

Article V is the most libertarian part of the Constitution.  Everybody who’s pissed off at the federal government is going to love it, once they understand it.

I don’t know if Kasich has the balls to go all the way with Article V  — to point out that it, in essence, creates a Fourth Branch of the Federal Government.  The Federal Legislature, which would come into existence with the routine use of Article V, has supreme power in our constitutional system.

If Kasich has the vision to see this, and promote it relentlessly, he could actually win.

I’d support him.

Those are the odds Vegas is giving on an R win in’16.  I think it’s 3-2, or 60-40.  If you’re a bettor, act now, because it’ll be 2-1 next year.

Big story in today’s Plain Dealer about Kasich’s plans to run around the country for an Article V BBA.  If I’m in the Paul campaign, I’m thinking, Do we want to let Kasich have this issue all to himself?  They respect Kasich’s smarts.  They know that, in Kasich’s mind, this is something he wants to take the lead on.  They know that Kasich doesn’t see any downside to what he’s doing.

I’m telling you, this is an issue to run for President on.  John Kasich has figured it out.  In my mind, he deserves a lot of credit  — and will get it.  If this thing takes off, and we get to 34 next year, who’s going to get the credit?  John Kasich.

I don’t care about who gets credit.  And I don’t really care who gets the nomination.  I want Rand Paul to jump on this bandwagon, big time.  I want Pence, and Jindal, and Perry, too. Hell, I want ’em all, even Bush and Christie.  The more the merrier.

I’m not predicting this.  Kasich may be an outlier.  But I sense a breeze stirring.

Some are more consequential than others.

1938 was big.  It slammed the brakes on the New Deal.  1946 was bigger.  It actually reversed part of the New Deal, and gave us Taft-Hartley, or right to work.  As a consequence we avoided the fate of the Brits, and union power began to wane  — today we have 6% of the private sector unionized, down from 35%.

2010 and 2014 were big — big enough to allow Article V to succeed, and to put the brakes on Obama.  2016, if it comes, will be bigger.  We will begin to dismantle the federal leviathan.  It will take an entire generation of political leadership, but it’s within our grasp.  It has to be done.  There’s only one way out of mess we’re in, and deal with the huge challenges ahead.  It’s economic growth, a massive expansion of the economy.  To achieve that we’ve got to cut the federal government down to size.  Only then can we fully exploit the amazing opportunities afforded by all the rapidly developing technologies.  Sustained economic expansion will allow us to handle the huge increase in the elderly population, with all of their demands for services.  And we can handle the debt, as well.

Look at fracking.  It’s changed the world.  When George Mitchell finally solved the problem, and made it work, it was because he was able to marry modern computing power to oil drilling.  People have used hydraulic pressure for 60 years to inject various substances into hydrocarbon formations.  Directional drilling has been around for 40.  Mitchell needed high tech to utilize them efficiently enough to make it all work.

Our economy will boom if we get creative destruction on a massive scale, and that will only happen if we cut the federal government out of it.  The federal government is the captive of entrenched economic interests, who will resist any change which reduces their power.

That’s why Article V is so providential, and so necessary.  It’s the only way to cut back the federal government.  The BBA and term limits are just a start.  I’d like to see an Article V Amendment every two years.

They don’t realize it, but the 7,000 odd state legislators are all also members of the Federal Legislature.  This Legislature has unlimited jurisdiction.  The only thing it can’t do is reduce the equal suffrage of the States in the Senate.  It exercises its power through the procedures of Article V.  Once those procedures have been more clearly established, and made routine, and become accepted as an ordinary part of our federal system, the Federal Legislature will be more than a concept.

It will be a reality.