Miscellaneous

It hasn’t come yet.  Will it?  At some point, when they take us seriously, the D’s will realize that putting the BBA, and Article V, at the forefront of the 2016 election will kill them, politically.  Their playbook from 30 years ago, when Lew Uhler got to 32, was to give Phyllis Schlafly’s Eagle Forum enough money to run an effective scare campaign against Article V  – the runaway bugaboo.

Their options are limited this time.  In all twelve of our target states, Republicans have the votes.  To stop us, the Democrats need to turn Republicans against us.  The runaway argument is the only one they’ve got.  Schlafly, and the Eagle Forum, and the John Birch Society, are spent forces.  Giving them money would not, at this point, be enough.

So they’ll sue, I suspect.  Find a Federal District Court Judge somewhere that they can count on, and get them to issue some sort of ruling against us.  Probably saying our Resolutions don’t aggregate.  I’m just guessing here.  Which makes today’s news out of D.C. significant.  Rep. Steve Stivers (R, Ohio) got a rule change passed by the House which sets up a formal procedure for aggregation.  This is the kind of thing which will discourage any interference from the courts.

The judiciary, as a matter of fact, hasn’t got one damned thing to do with Article V.  Any ruling, by any judge, attempting to insert the judicial branch into this process should, of course, be appealed.

It should also be ignored.

A lot of good news coming in.  We really could get a sweep in the upper plains and mountain states — SD, ND, MT, WY, UT and ID.  That’s 30, and Wisconsin, West Virginia, South Carolina and Oklahoma would make 34, and they’re all very doable.

The tide is turning.

Some people think Congress will propose a BBA itself, rather than let the states do it in an Amendment Convention.  That’s how we got the 17th Amendment.  This could happen if we get to 32 or 33 in June of 2015, and Congress has six months to react before the 2016 state legislative sessions begin.

I hope that doesn’t happen.  To get the votes of thirteen Senate Democrats I think you’d have to water a BBA down.  We’d get a better product from a Convention.  But, mainly, for me, I just want an orderly, successful Convention.  For the first time in our history the states would finally be exercising their supervisory role over the federal government.  And once it happens, it will happen again.  And again.

If we pull it off, and get to 34 this year, Congress wouldn’t be able to stop a Convention by passing its own BBA.  There’s nothing in Article V that says that Congress can avoid its responsibility to call the Convention by passing its version of what’s being sought at the Convention.  That’s bullshit.  For something simple, like repealing the 16th or 17th Amendments, it might make sense.  But a Congressional BBA and a Convention BBA are totally different animals.

Come to think of it, there might be a push to pass a BBA in Congress this year.  Why wouldn’t Boehner give it a go?  He only needs 43 D votes to pass it.  Highly unlikely, but a good issue.

Washington will be a mess in a month.  Obama overestimates the strength of his position.  And he doesn’t know how to negotiate.  It’s a lot of work, something that has no appeal for him.  No negotiation, no deals.  Fine with me.

Article V thrives on Washington dysfunction.

Sponsor Tyler Lindholm (R, Sundance) tells me today that Sen. Jeff Wasserburger has agreed to co-sponsor our Reso.  Tyler and his partner, DLA sponsor Dan Laursen, are members of the insurgent wing of the Wyoming legislature.  Wasserburger is identified with the establishment.  To win we have to have both factions of the legislature (in Wyoming, there aren’t enough D’s to matter much).  Tyler says this is big.

A month ago Jeff indicated a willingness to be our principal sponsor, but later shied away.  I’m not sure what gave him pause, but he may have thought this was all some kind of “Tea Party” thing that he didn’t want to associate himself with.  Tyler suspects the spreading word of Kasich’s impending visit to Cheyenne may have brought him back.

We’re glad to have him.

Tyler also says we’ll get support from Liz Cheney.  Maybe she can help with Susan Gore of the Wyoming Liberty Group.

Kevin Grenier and the 250 More gang are raring to go, and are making plans to barnstorm the state.  These guys may be our secret weapon.  Since we don’t have any money, we have to rely on the merits of our case.

And the people.

Nobody knows about Article V, and the real chance of using it this year or next.  Running a full scale media campaign in our target states would solve the problem.  Funding for such a campaign will be forthcoming when the Republican money men realize this could hand the Presidency to their nominee.  That realization will take place, I feel confident.

But when?

We might not get 34 by 2016.  Even if we do, the election of 2016 is important because the next Article V application, whether it’s term limits, the Federalist Amendment, or the Convention of States, will need a Republican Senate.  A Senate led by Harry Reid or Chuck Schumer would kill, one way or the other, any Article V submission.  Count on it.  Because the 2016 Senate landscape greatly favors the D’s, we’ll need a winning Presidential candidate to hold on to the Senate.

I’d bet money on the Republican right now, except for the McVeigh Effect.  In the spring of 1995 the Republicans were riding high.  Newt Gingrich was the new Speaker, and the Contract for America was driving the political agenda.  Clinton was in trouble politically.  He’d pissed off the NRA, he had blood on his hands from the Waco siege, and the Hillarycare debacle was a stain on his record.  The media was covering up his sexual misconduct, but Gennnifer Flowers, Juanita Broderick, and Paula Jones were out there lurking.  Looking ahead to 1996, things looked good for the R’s.

Then on April 19, 1995, Timothy McVeigh bombed the Oklahoma City Federal Building and everything changed.  The media tied McVeigh to militias, Rush Limbaugh, and the Republicans.  It changed the political tilt of the country, and Clinton and Dick Morris were clever enough to take advantage and win reelection.  Contrast the media coverage of Oklahoma City and Benghazi, and you begin to understand how Democrats win.

For the next two years the hunt will be on for the new Timothy McVeigh.  If they can find him, it would give the D’s hope.  Because the way things are looking right now, they’re in trouble.  It’s funny, really.  Look at their leaders.  Harry Reid is so old he can’t be trusted around exercise equipment.  Nancy Pelosi is suffering from first stage dementia, and her likely replacement, Steny Hoyer, is in his 70’s, I believe.  Hillary looks and acts old, out of date, passe.  Biden’s long, slow decline into stark raving lunacy continues.  Their dark horse, California Gov. Jerry Brown, would take office at age 79.

Of course they’ve got their issues ————————-?  More government programs?  Higher taxes?  Racial justice?  Defend Obamacare?  A better foreign policy?

I’ve got it!  They’ll increase the minimum wage!  That’s how you win the Presidency.

And there’s Obama.  I have no idea what he’ll do in the next two years.

But I know he’ll screw it up.