Is Vance the Presumptive Republican Nominee in 2028?

Not necessarily. The process doesn’t even start until three years from now.

One thing seems certain: There is going to be a great deal of change in this country and around the world in the next year, much less three years. Most of it will be good, I think. Trump seems to know what he’s doing this time, and his most dangerous opponents are on their heels, whether it’s Russia, Iran, or the media-academic axis. No Russia hoax to distract him. and a band of talented loyalists around to do his bidding. Things look good.

So it’s easy to assume Trump will anoint Vance as his designated successor, and hand him the nomination. But that’s an assumption, and as a wise old pol told me, “Assumption begins with ass.”

Vance’s own political skills, based on the record, aren’t particularly impressive. He won in Ohio in 2022 in a relatively close election, with 53% of the vote. The rest of the 2022 Republican ticket did a lot better.

I like Vance, and admire him, and think he’ll do a fine job. But it’s way too soon to think he’s got the nomination in the bag. Let’s see him earn it.

Talk about change! Syria has been a country for over 100 years, and now it’s disappearing before our eyes. Israel has now completely freed itself of the hostile powers surrounding it: Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria.

Maybe there will be peace in the Holy Land this Christmas. Now that’s change I can live with. Now if we can get peace in Ukraine, we can really celebrate. The natural order of the world, with Russia and China and the United States as the three hegemons, is forming. And there is no reason in the world that these three peoples would want to fight each other.

Merry Christmas indeed!

Don’t Just Drain it. Eliminate it.

It doesn’t do much good to drain a swamp if it just fills back up again. So, everything Trump and the Republicans do to fix the mess in Washington can be undone by a new administration. The problems are structural, and to fix them for good you need amendments to the Constitution.

That’s where Article V comes in. Trump and the Republican Congress have no role to play in that process. That’s up to both Republican and Democrat state legislators.

Trump and Congrerss just have to get out of the way. That’s exactly what the Framers had in mind when they wrote Article V.

How Presidents Trump and Xi get Along

Jaw, jaw, jaw is better than war, war, war, and Trump has no desire to go to war with China, or anyone else for that matter. Taiwan’s de facto independence will be maintained, but we can still get along with the ChiComs. We just need to reach an accommodation that we both can live with. Nixon did it and so can Trump.

Trump has been belligerently aggressive with Canada and Mexico on tariffs, but not really with China. China is too big and proud to be bullied. He wants to cut a deal, but he knows better than to try and back President Xi in a corner.

A little personal diplomacy helps make the medicine go down, and here Trump has a great asset in his granddaughter, Arabella Kushner. Seven years ago, she serenaded President XI, singing to him in Mandarin. It was a huge hit. The Chinese people ate it up. I’ve little doubt that Xi would like to see her again. She’s grown into a beautiful young woman.

It all provides quite a contrast with Biden, who had his reprobate son try to shake the money tree in China, as well as Ukraine.

In world affairs, Trump’s next four years will be consequential for the rest of the 21st century. He will facilitate the end of the Ukraine war and bring peace to that war ravaged country. He will normalize relations with Russia, using carrots as well as sticks.

There’s no reason Russia can’t be a prosperous, peaceful country, part of the European family of nations. With American and European assistance, Russia’s enormous natural resource wealth can be fully developed, enriching the Russians and benefitting all mankind. Russia just needs to acknowledge that the post-Cold War international borders are inviolate.

India will be brought ever closer to the United States, and the developing nations of the world will be gradually integrated into the world economy. Prosperity won’t be achieved by beggar thy neighbor policies. Let the whole world prosper.

Trump has a lot of gas left in his tank, and he will exploit the opportunities for peace and prosperity with great energy for the next four years.

But the world is not our oyster, and the bad actors in it must be brought to heel. Military force will not be required, except in extraordinary circumstances. When it is needed, it will be brought with overwhelming force with a newly revamped and reenergized American armed forces. America and its allies can use our economic power to punish and reward in almost all circumstances.

But when Trump says, “There will be hell to pay,” the malefactors out there should pay attention.

The 21st century will be an American century, and President Donald J. Trump will be able to take a major share of credit. This will be fun to watch, and for those participating the most satisfying work of their lives.

The Question Kash Patel Needs to be Asked

I don’t know of anyone more devoted and loyal to Donald Trump than Kash Patel. With him at the FBI the President knows he has a man he can trust. As the head cop of the federal government, Patel will wield great power and need great discretion.

The FBI has a long and sorry record of improper political activism. Many of its violations of the civil liberties of American citizens were politically motivated. Is a man so feverishly loyal to the President capable of ever saying “No”?

If the President tasks him with surveilling his political opponents, with no legal justification, would Patel ever resist? If he cannot honestly agree to do so, he should not be confirmed.

“Tater Tot Ron” for Defense?

Ron DeSantis would, I’m sure, be an outstanding Secretary of Defense. He’d be a better President. I don’t think he can be both.

He needs independence if he wants to make a run in 2028. Working for Donald Trump wouldn’t work. He needs to be his own man, not subject to the caprice of an impulsive authoritarian. Vice President Vance has the inside track to be the Donald’s designated successor, and he will resent anyone competing in his lane.

DeSantis needs his own lane, and I think one is available – Reform Republican. The reforms which are needed are all understood and supported by large majorities of voters, both Republican and Democrat. But the needed congressional action will never happen, because these reforms are of Congress itself.

First, and most obvious, is fiscal reform. To have any teeth, it needs to go into the Constitution. It could be as simple and obvious as a line-item veto. 44 Governors have it, people are familiar with it, and it works. If the President had this power, he would be responsible and politically accountable for deficit spending. There are other fiscal reforms which work in other countries, like the Swiss debt break.

Next is congressional term limits. Want to drain the swamp? Keep recycling the swamp creatures. Don’t let them get too comfortable. The American people understand this issue, and they dearly desire that someone takes up this cause.

Third is campaign finance reform. Using the powers granted to it in Article 1, sec. 4 of the Constitution, Congress has created a web of federal campaign finance laws suited perfectly to the incumbent. This power needs to be taken away from Congress, and returned to the states, and the people. Let each state decide on how it wants congressional campaigns financed within its borders. Kansas will do it one way, Rhode Island another. In states with an initiative available, the voters can decide, directly, how they want to regulate campaign financing. Every state already does it, but only for state elections. Give them the power to regulate congressional races as well. Simply remove that part of Article 1, sec. 4 which was inserted at the last minute by James Madison.

In 1787 state legislatures were the center of the anti-federalists. These people didn’t want the Constitution, which would mean the central government taking away their power. Madison was afraid that if the state legislatures controlled elections to Congress, they would abuse that power and somehow sabotage the first Congress.

It made sense at the time, but that concern is no longer a problem. Congress is the problem.

These three reforms must all be achieved using Article V of the Constitution. The states, acting together, can propose these amendments themselves, bypassing Congress. This provision was inserted because the delegates to the Convention knew that Congress, itself, could be the problem, which could not be relied on to reform itself. Article V was written specifically as a means of reforming Congress.

The effort to achieve these reforms began in 1975 with two blue dog southern Democrats. It’s had fits and starts along the way. But it has never gone away. It has never succeeded because it’s never had a leader.

Gov. Ron DeSantis could be that leader, and if the effort succeeds it would be as significant as the progressive reforms enacted at the beginning of the 20th century: direct election of Senators, the income tax, and women’s emancipation.

There were Progressive Republicans and Progressive Democrats, and there need to be Reform Republicans and Reform Democrats. It’s the on ly way it can work. Which is why anyone associated with Donald Trump cannot lead it.

Kash Patel, fanatically loyal to Trump, liked to call DeSantis “Tater Tot Ron” for having the temerity to challenge Trump. That’s the kind of loyalty Trump wants. It’s too much.

DeSantis is better off staying away from Washington. Instead, he should travel the states to gather support for the Reform Republican agenda.