Miscellaneous

If anyone gets a bump out of Cleveland it will be Rand Paul.  He will make the case for the non-interventionism that has been the default preference of the American people since the founding.  He may go so far as to question the necessity of American soldiers playing the role of hostages in Japan, Korea, and Germany.  Go large, Rand.

Paul’s campaign has stalled, and he’s more of a long shot now than when he announced.  But if this issue plays out he could rebound.  He’s telling the American people what they want to hear.  No more war.  No preemptive war.  No war with Iran, no war in the Middle East.  No war.

We’re not pacifists.  If, as some military experts claim, we could destroy ISIS in 36 hours, and then leave, we should do it.  They’re a bunch of terrorists who’ve declared war on us, and we should kill as many of them as we can, and go home.  I’m sure the 82nd Airborne would love to jump in and do the job.  They would do it with relish.

I’ll be closely watching Kasich when this comes up.  Keith Faber told me that Kasich is completely opposed to nation building.  That’s a start.  But since then he’s come across as more hawkish.  The best path for him is to get in the middle between warhawks like Bush and Cruz on the one hand and Paul on the other.  Extreme reluctance to enter foreign conflicts is very good politics.  Oh, and it’s right.

I’ll give Trump some credit here.  In Europe he was asked about the Russian annexation of Crimea.  His answer was spot on.  Why is this our problem?  Why can’t the Germans handle this?  Why are we the world’s policeman?  Go Donald.

Judging from the comments at the American Thinker, there are a lot of people, apparently from Ohio, who think Kasich is a RINO.  I’m not buying.  Scott Walker gets major cred for his union reforms in Wisconsin.  But Kasich won even stronger reforms in Ohio, because police and firemen unions were not excluded, as they were in Wisconsin.  Because he went whole hog, he overreached, and sympathy for those cops and firefighters led to the referendum repealing these reforms.  But he went for it.  He was all in.  When I saw him in Phoenix he was still pissed off about losing.  That’s a RINO?  I don’t think so.

Once Bush craters, it’s game on between Walker and Kasich.  One of them will survive to be the alternative to the Tea Party candidate.  I’m looking forward to reading the body language between them.  Walker’s not as bright as Kasich, but he’s easily underestimated.  This is a man of cold calculation, and an iron will  — a marathon man.  He will go the distance.  You’ve got to admire him.

Every now and then a news story comes up and proves, once again, that our tide runs strong.  Joe Biden is being taken seriously in the Democratic Presidential contest.  This belongs in the Onion.

Since I’m a registered psychoanalyst, I’ll weigh in.  Joe’s running.  He’s already made up his mind.  Why the hell shouldn’t he run?  He’s 72 years old, and at that age (which I, sadly, am approaching) you do whatever the hell you want to do.  Why hold back?  What are saving it up for?  He’s waiting for another couple months so all the press speculation will give him free media.

Joe Biden is convinced, deep in his bones, that he would be one of the greatest Presidents in history.  He knows he can do the job.  When he campaigns, and is the center of attention, he glows with pleasure.

He also knows Clinton is dirty.  He knows about a lot more dirt than we do, and some of it’s really bad.  The New York Times knows this as well, which is why it’s pushing him into the race.

So, here we are, a year before the Conventions, and the best the D’s can come up with is Joe Biden?

1920 here we come.

My piece on Kasich and normality is up at American Thinker.  It starts,

In America today, “normal” is not a word which should be used in polite society.  It’s a form of microaggression, since it implies the existence, and rejection, of abnormality.  Since everything is relative, and of equal worth, normal and abnormal are dangerous concepts, since they can lead to judgementalism.  Nothing is more hateful than being judgmental.  Those who make judgments about what is good, and condemnations of what is bad, are essentially fascists.  A politician who uses this new “n” word does so at his peril.

But when Ohio Gov. John Kasich said on Fox News Sunday that power should be taken from Washington and returned to the states and “normal people” he was just echoing the sentiments of fellow Buckeye Warren Harding from almost 100 years ago.  Wilson and the Progressives had pushed the country far to the left, and Harding promised a Return to Normalcy.  He won by the largest margin in the history of contested Presidential elections, 60-34.

The whole article is here.

Bill Fruth got Tennessee by having the NFIB lobbyist arrange one on one meetings with legislators in their offices.  Idaho legislators actually have offices, as opposed to Montana or Wyoming, and we have a good NFIB lobbyist in Suzie Budge.  Someone  — Fruth, Guldenschuh or I  — needs to spend several days in Boise sitting down with individual Senators and convincing them that what they hear from Bart Smith is baloney.  We’ll have to do a lot more, but I think this is the key.  Loren Enns has set up a schedule for the Idaho Task Force, and it’s a great start.  We can get Idaho.  There are 28 Republican Senators in a 35 member Senate.  You can lose 10 of 28 and still win.  We didn’t do much of anything in Idaho last year.  We were relying on Speaker Bedke, and he couldn’t budge the Senate and Davis.  A true full court press gets us Idaho.

One question that needs to be answered is how much emphasis should be placed on land transfers to the states.  60% of Idaho is federal, and these people want their land.  Any Idaho politician who is seen fighting to get their land from the feds is a popular Idaho politician.  This is a question for Speaker Bedke.  I’ve talked extensively with him about land transfers.  He’s interested.  Politically, I can’t see a downside to it in Idaho.  He’ll make the call.

Here’s an idea.  Georgia Senate Majority Leader Bill Cowsert calls fellow attorney and Idaho Senate Majority Leader Bart Davis, and reasons with him.  Depending on how that call goes, it can be followed up by others  — Keith Faber of Ohio, David Long of Indiana etc.  Davis is not some asshole.  He seems fairly jovial, and approachable enough.  He’ll take the calls, and be civil.  Maybe we can just wear him down.

Kasich was on Fox News Sunday, and in fine form.  He’s tweaked his response to the Medicaid expansion question, and it’s a lot better.  He mentioned he wanted to return power to the states and “normal people.”  This naturally brought back memories of Harding’s Return to Normalcy campaign of 1920.  I wrote an article about it and submitted it to the American Thinker.  Harding did OK by talking about getting back to normal.  He won 60-34, the largest margin of victory in the history of contested Presidential elections.  The funny thing is, Obama has a whole lot in common with Wilson.  Both are academic leftists who pushed the country way left, farther than it wanted to go.  It’s entirely possible the 2016 backlash against Obamaism could resemble the landslide of 1920.  If the civil unrest of 1919 is repeated, it could happen.  You read it here first.

I was misadvised by Mark Meckler in San Diego.  His friend Hugh Hewitt is not a moderator of the first debate, so there’s much less of a chance that the BBA will be asked about.  It would be nice if Kasich gets an opportunity to work it in, but that depends on the flow of things.

The only way Kasich screws up in the debate is if he tries too hard.  Comportment is all important in making a first impression, and he needs to look  Presidential.  A man is judged more by the eye than by the ear.  Although he comes across as a bit boyish, he’s actually a 63 year old man, so he ought to be able to keep his cool.

I love politics.

Two years ago, on the eve of the first anniversary of the Benghazi attack, Jeb Bush, Chairman of the National Constitution Center, awarded that group’s Liberty Medal to Hillary Clinton.  This was the culmination of years of cozying up to the Clintons by the Bushes.  Maybe Jeb thought Hillary would cut him some slack down the road.

On Friday, at the meeting of the Urban League, Jeb found out just how wrong he was.  While waiting to give his speech, Jeb got to listen to Hillary trash him.  Rather than respond, when he took the stage he thanked her.  I guess he’s seen Trump’s rise in the polls and has decided to become the anti-Trump, a wimp.  Jeb, remember, is the smart one.  The only question for Bush is how much of a fool he makes of himself before he quits.  Since Jeb thinks illegal immigration is an act of love, maybe the Donald can ask him about Juan Francisco Lopez-Sanchez.  After being deported for the fifth time, Juan decided to come back to the U.S., no doubt as an act of love, and then randomly murdered Kathryn Steinle in sanctuary San Francisco.  Love makes the world go round, right, Jeb?  Come on, Donald, show us a pair.  Bush recently said, “It’s completely unAmerican to require people living in the shadows (sic)”.  So opposing amnesty is unAmerican.  Who knew?  He also said he’ll govern like LBJ.  The man’s intelligence is overwhelming.  He’s just got that touch.  Like when he says he’ll be willing to lose the primary to win the general.  How the hell do you win a general election you’re not in?  One of the imponderables is what he’s going to do with all his money when it’s clear he’s losing.  Will he go negative on the leaders?  Or will he stick with joyous?  Only Jeb knows for sure.  It’s possible he’d show a little class, but don’t count on it.

Campaigning joyously might not be such a good idea this cycle.  Trump’s rise demonstrates, above all else, that the American people are royally pissed off.  They want somebody who understands their anger and is prepared to do something about it, like seal the border.  Now.  No ifs ands or buts.

My moderator question for Hillary:  “Mrs. Clinton, your intervention on behalf of banking giant UBS, and their subsequent donations and speaking fees to your Foundation, may not be a violation of the law, but isn’t it important that high government officials avoid even the appearance of impropriety?  Doesn’t it just look bad for America’s Secretary of State to appear to be profiting from their actions in office?”

Hillary’s entire candidacy is based on name recognition, money, and gender politics.  It’s not enough.  Millennials will be her undoing, along with black and Hispanic men.  Her digs at Uber won’t help.  He support of the FCC’s “net neutrality” will hurt as well.  If there’s one thing millennials like it’s the freedom of the internet.  Women will stick with her when she starts tearing up, as she did in New Hampshire eight years ago.  It won’t be enough.  If I’m wrong I’ll throw this computer in the dump and go live in the desert, eating roots and bugs.  For over 40 years Hillary has watched her husband bullshit his way through life, knowing full well that she’s smarter than he is.  She figures if he can pull it off so can she.  But Bill’s special.  As former Nebraska Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey said, he’s a truly great liar, a virtuoso of falsehood.  Hillary tries the same shtick and falls flat.  Life’s not fair.

I think I may be in a little bit better health than Bill.  I hope so. He’s on my bucket list.  I want to outlive him so I can piss on his grave.  It’s personal.  Maybe I can do an internet campaign for a group of guys to all get together and we all piss on it en masse.  A good way to bond with fellow patriots.  We can even pass out commemorative bumper stickers, “I pissed on Clinton’s grave.”  It could start a trend.

The worst political analysis I ever did was 1996, when I thought Dole had a chance to beat Clinton.  Dole wasn’t much of a candidate, but Clinton had been revealed as a sexual predator, and I couldn’t believe he’d get away with it.  But the American people held their noses and voted for him, because we had peace and prosperity.  Most people vote in their own self interest, by and large, even if they don’t even like or even trust the candidate.  Are the people of this country so dimwitted that they can be convinced that Hillary Clinton can lead us to peace and prosperity, going down essentially the same path we’ve been on for the last eight years?  They say no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.

If you believe that, bet on her.

In my American Thinker piece I stated that Amendment Conventions were not subject to “external controls.”  Rob Natelson points out that the States are external to the Convention but can “control” it through control of their delegations, that Congress could refuse to specify a mode of ratification for an ultra vires Amendment, and that the Courts might declare an ultra vires Amendment void.  Rob’s correct, of course.  My language was imprecise.  Next time I’ll see if Rob can review my stuff before I send it out for publication, at least on legal issues.

Lou Marin says there’s a better chance of him getting hit by lightning than moving Sen. Biggs.  Well, lightning strikes about 600 people a year, so there’s hope.

Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore is #17, and on Special Report yesterday disqualified himself by calling for a Middle East NATO.  Craziest idea yet.  American soldiers are going to die defending the borders of Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt?  Crazy isn’t strong enough.

For the moment the polls separate the field into three groups  — the Big Three, the Middle Six, and the Rest.  Trump, Walker and Bush are in the lead.  Trump is not a serious candidate.  Bush is going nowhere but down.  So Scott Walker, as of today, is the man to beat.  The Middle Six (Rubio, Huckabee, Carson, Paul, Cruz and Kasich) contains three sure losers, Huckabee, Carson and Cruz.  I include Cruz because people don’t like a smart ass.  Paul’s star seems to be fading.  He won’t kiss up to donors  — he’s not all in.  I think he’s running, in part, because of Daddy issues, just like Romney was.  When he decided to hang on to his Senate seat it was a tell.  His heart’s not in it.

If you count Paul and the Rest out, as I think is reasonable, it gets down to Walker, Kasich and Rubio.  I like Kasich, but any of these would be fine.

The debate to watch is Democratic.  Sometime in August or September the DNC will have the first debate in Iowa.  That will be a kick.  Lincoln Chafee was in the Senate with Hillary when she voted for the Iraq war.  He knows it was a politically calculated vote, and it really pisses him off.  He looks kind of goofy, but I think he’s got balls, like his war hero dad.  I’m betting he goes after her on that vote, as he should.  Bernie Sanders also carries a set, and all the people who turn out for his rallies want him to separate himself from Hillary.  The big question that begs to be asked is the Clinton Foundation corruption.  The moderator has to ask that one.

If esprit d’corps is worth anything the Task Force seems to be going strong.  Everyone is happy with San Diego, and ready to get back to work.  Loren Enns deserves recognition for his work in getting prepared in our target states.

In an ideal world, when the filing deadlines for running for the state legislature in 2016 start up, every legislative candidate, of any party, who files for office should get a letter explaining Article V, and their responsibility under it if elected.  The trick is to get them to read and understand it.  When I filed for the State Senate in 1982 I’d never heard of Article V.  I read everything people sent to my campaign (not much) and I would have read an explanation of Article V with great interest.  You want the letter to arrive right after the filing deadline, so that it will be one of the first such letters they get.  This is what the Bradley Foundation should do with all their money.

Sometimes I ask myself, If you’re so smart, how come you don’t have any money?

I never have an answer.