Miscellaneous

They don’t vote as a bloc, but they have tendencies.  The ethnic Catholics of the Midwest, aka Reagan Democrats, can decide elections.

This came to mind yesterday evening as I happened to hear Texas Ted on the Levin Show.  He’s no longer Texas Ted, he’s now Parson Cruz.  They were talking about the jailed county clerk in Kentucky, and “Ted”, as Levin calls him, sounded very much like an evangelical preacher giving a Sunday sermon to the faithful.  It struck me that that’s part of the problem I’ve always had with him.

I was raised as an ethnic Catholic.  My mother and her family were from Irish and German Catholic immigrant stock, and I was an altar boy who was instructed by the nuns at St. Cornelius grammar school in Richmond.  Catholics have an aversion to Bible thumping evangelists.  Back when I was a kid some of them were anti-Catholic.  I don’t think that’s true very much today, but the discomfort remains.  American Catholics are not evangelical or charismatic.  A Catholic Mass is a very formal, low key affair.  If you feel some religious enthusiasm coming on, keep it to yourself.

Maybe I’m a little oversensitive, but whenever I see a politician coming on like a preacher, I get turned off.  Cruz definitely had that effect on me from the Levin show.  It could be a problem for him.  It’s something to keep an eye on.

I’ve mentioned before Cruz’s other big problem, arrogance.  He’s so certain of himself, and enamored of his own intellect, and so experienced in the techniques of debate, that he has not a glimmer, not a scintilla, of humility.  Has Parson Cruz ever told a story on himself, one where he came out on the short end?  He probably can’t think of one.

Self deprecation is one of the greatest political tools.  In the second debate with Mondale, when the Gipper joked about how old he was,* he sealed a landslide.

I think Kasich’s childhood was similar to mine.  He’s an ethnic Catholic, Czech and Croatian.  After his parents were killed he joined a Protestant Church, but the boy is father to the man, and his religious sensibilities will always be the ones he absorbed in his youth.  You’d think he would know how to communicate with his fellow Midwest ethnic Catholics.  In fact, I’ll bet he does.

In most things in life, the more experience you acquire, the better you get.   Politics is no exception.  You’re better off with the old pro.

I liked being an altar boy.  You were up by the altar, in front of everybody, and you got to ring bells, and pour water and wine, and hold a plate under communicants.  My Grandmother and Aunt Mary were devout Catholics, and I liked doing things that pleased them.  I remember having to memorize all the Latin responses.  I can remember them today.

Ad Deum qui laetificat, juventutem meum.

I go to the altar of God, the joy of my youth.

“I will not take advantage of my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

It’s routine for politicians to do the two step.  For Republicans, take a step to the right in the primary, and a step to the center in the general.  John Kasich seems to be doing a three step. A step to moderation at this stage of the contest, to be followed by a step to the right when the field is winnowed down, and then the third step to the center in the general.

Actually, his strategy will be determined by who his principal competition will be, once the field has narrowed.  If Jeb! is still around he may want to stay more in the middle.  If Jeb! is gone he may emerge as the de facto “establishment” candidate, freeing him to move to the right.  If it comes down to Kasich vs. Cruz and Rubio he’ll want to stress his conservative credentials.  It seems to me that he’s maintaining his flexibility, which he needs to do in a volatile race.

He took a shot at Bush II the other day, complaining about the $5 trillion he pissed away, in an oblique shot at Jeb!  I thought it was $3 trillion, but he knows better than I do.  It’s a great line of attack, because in taking on Bush II he’s not only going after Jeb!, but, by implication the Republican Congressional leadership which actually spent all the money.  Republicans are angry at Congress for its fecklessness, and unwillingness to stand for conservative principles.  Kasich will win points for criticizing those in his own party for reckless spending.  Now may not be the best time.  This is a long campaign.

At some point he will have to do foreign policy.  This will be a speech I will listen to very carefully.  I’m an anti-war Republican, and that’s what I want to hear.  Keith Faber told me that Kasich thinks nation building is a crock, and that he even had misgivings about the first Gulf War.  So we will see.

I think the American people are anti-war, and that’s what they want to hear.  Who are we going to fight, the Chinese?  Are you crazy?  The Russians?  For what?  For Europe?  The Europeans have a long history of internecine warfare.  If they want to keep at it, so be it.  It’s their call.  It’s not our job to defend them.  We don’t need anybody to help us to defend our own shores.  We can do that on our own.  So let the Europeans solve their own problems.  Same with South Korea and Japan.  It’s your problem.  I’m all for going into the Middle East, killing as many terrorists as we can, and then getting the hell out.  It’s called a police action.

The Donald is now an official Republican.  This is very good news.  The man is capable of anything, including a third party run.  Now that that’s off the table he can be treated like any other candidate.  He took a shot at kindly Dr. Carson for not employing many people as a brain surgeon.  What a guy.

One of these Republicans, on the way to Simi Valley, needs to go to Rep. David Valadao’s district in the Central Valley and endorse his water bill.  The environmental left is vulnerable on this one.  They waste so much water on the stupid delta smelt that they look like idiots.  It’s a damn bait fish, and is thriving in reservoirs not part of the Delta.  This district is very heavily Chicano, and they elect Republicans to Congress.  Everybody wants to appeal to Hispanics.  Valadao, a Portuguese-American, has figured it out.

Maybe somebody should listen to him.

Wargaming the nomination involves judging the quality not only of the candidates, but their campaigns.  Most of them are underwhelming as of now.

Rubio’s campaign decides it would be smart for him to attack Trump for implying, in his slogan, “Make America Great Again”, that America is not a great country.  What, he’s trying to win the semanticist vote?  Come on, Marco, you’ve got to be able to do better than that.

Walker goes off on the Iran deal, saying anybody who doesn’t tear up the thing on the first day is a pussy.  Oh, Scott, you’re such a tiger!  We’re so impressed.

Bush’s main line of attack against the Donald is to say he’s not a conservative, and Jeb! is.  Really inspiring stuff.  The kind of thing that will cause a mass exodus from the Tribe of Trump.  So Jeb! doubles down (and is immediately nailed by Drudge) and says, “El hombre no es conservador.”    I can see these people at a Trump rally, as the word begins to spread, from one to another, at first in whispers, then becoming a roar, “EL HOMBRE NO ES CONSERVADOR!” and running from the building.

And then on Special Report they lead with a story of Kasich tearing up at a New Hampshire event, soul hugging people.  When Johnny from Ohio left Congress, and  got himself a gig on Fox, and made some friends there, not a lot of people noticed.  It may turn out to be the best move, and the best set of friends, he ever made.

The bill I talked to my Congressman’s staff about  — statutory interpretation of the 14th Amendment with respect to birthright citizenship  — has been introduced by Rep. King of Iowa, HR 140, and doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.  Why not?  Beats me.  D.C. lawyer Mike Stern tells me twenty-two years ago Harry Reid introduced it.  But he’s evolved.

Some high school kid in Troy, Ohio wants to pretend that he’s a girl, so of course they the school tells the girls he can use their bathroom.  Tolerance, don’t you know.  The girls aren’t buying it.  What about the parents?  If you had a daughter in high school, and she tells you this guy at school is pretending to be a girl, and go to the girls bathroom, what do you do?  Shrug your shoulders?  Another story, unconfirmed, of a school sending a little girl home because of her Wonder Woman lunch pail.  Superheroes use violence, so verboten.  If you let them get away with this stuff you deserve it.

If Obama doesn’t come out with a forceful defense of the police, and a condemnation of their killers, I’d be surprised.  It’s Politics 101.  If he doesn’t do it there really is something seriously wrong with this guy.

Sometimes I think of the Left as a zit, or a boil, that needs to be popped, or lanced.  There’s some ugly stuff in there.  Make sure it comes to head so you can get it all.

Around fourteen months from now might be perfect.

What’s the magic number, the one that proves that 34 is within reach?  We know it’s not 27.  Wisconsin will be 28, but that won ‘t do it.  I think it’s 31 or 32.   That’s when we’re taken seriously.

Rep. Gary Banz believes he’s got things lined up for Oklahoma to be #29 in February.  The bills from last session carry over, we don’t need to go through committee, and his ducks are lined up.  Gary’s been working this for years, will be term limited next year, and will do all a man can do.  Yeah, Oklahoma is 29.

West Virginia should be 30.  They adjourn on March 5th, so if it happens it will happen quickly.  Scott Rogers is working on it, and the indefatigable Fruth will be visiting fairly soon.  Seante President Cole is with us, and Speaker Armstead is not an opponent.  Senate Presidents Faber of Ohio and Long of Indiana will help.  We ran out of time last year.  It won’t happen again.

If we win next year we will have passed in Wyoming (adjourns March 3rd) and Idaho (March 17th).  Fruth had a pleasant half hour conversation with Wyoming Senate President and has arranged to go to Wyoming to meet not only Nicholas but travel the state, speaking with legislators and others.  It is better for Fruth to do this than me.  I don’t think Nicholas, or anyone else in Wyoming, has any kind of problem with me.  I don’t have a bad attitude.  Swear to God.  But Bill has a proven track record of success.  He’s pulled it off before, in Tennessee, and he can do it again.  I’m not willing to bet the farm, but I think Nicholas comes around and we get Wyoming and 31.

Which gets us to Idaho Senate Majority Leader Bart Davis.  NFIB lobbyist Suzie Budge told us today there’s really no way around him.  He’s got that kind of juice.  The Senate President won’t cross him, and the other lawyers in the Senate are intimidated by the guy.  Fruth will fly to Idaho Falls to meet him in a few weeks.  At least he’ll talk to Bill, which is more than he’d do for me.  I tried to get an appointment to see him when we were driving through Idaho Falls on our way to Montana.  No luck.  The good news is that Bart Davis is not Andy Biggs.  He’s no Bircher, and he’s no fool.  As a lawyer, he’s concluded that an Amendment Convention can’t be controlled.  He needs to stop thinking like a lawyer and start thinking like a politician.  Given the political realities in this country today, will a BBA Convention run away?  Will the 31 legislatures controlled by Republicans allow that to happen?  Balance that infinitesimal risk against the looming threat of national bankruptcy.  We don’t know if Davis can be reasoned with, so Idaho is a big question mark.

The other possibility is Virginia, which adjourns March 5th.  We expect Republican gains in the November legislative elections, but until them it’s idle speculation.

If Idaho or Virginia get us to 32, we’ll still need Arizona and South Carolina.  I say we get South Carolina for 33, and the Governor calls the Arizona legislature into special session and make it 34.  If Maryland has rescinded, you have to go back and pick up Montana, Idaho or Virginia.

It’s a double bank shot.

I used to be able to make those, when I was a freshman at Cal back in ’62.  They had a very cool pool hall in the Student Union, and that’s where I spent most of my time.  College wasn’t working out for me.  I wasn’t ready.  I was flunking German, which I hated.  The other classes didn’t really interest me.  I wasn’t learning anything.

So I became a pretty fair pool player.  We played for small stakes, and I held my own.  Pool is like poker.

You play people you can beat.

In case you hadn’t noticed, the Supreme Court understands politics, and its decisions often reflect political realities.  It is one of three branches of the federal government, and when it acts against the desires of its co-equals, the legislative and executive branches, simultaneously, it treads cautiously.

This is the argument for passage of a statutory interpretation of the 14th Amendment with respect to anchor babies.  Such a statute would state unequivocally that the language of the Fourteenth Amendment does not support birthright citizenship.  Rob Natelson has a piece in Today’s AT in which he dispassionately analyzes the relevant law, and concludes that without such a statutory interpretation the Court would most likely rule in favor of birthright citizenship.

I emailed Rob, asking him if he thought this approach had merit.  He replied that, legally, it did not, but in the real world it does.  Since we live in the real world it should be pursued.  Tomorrow I hope to meet with local staff of my Tea Party Congressman, Tom McClintock, and request that the Congressman introduce such legislation.  If it became law, signed and enforced by the next President, it could have a substantial impact on how a legal challenge to anchor babies would be resolved.  This idea is not new, and legislation may have already been introduced.  If not, I fully expect McClintock to do it.  Stay tuned.

Kindly Dr. Carson is surging in Iowa, and this is meaningful, somehow.  Really?  It just proves we aren’t ready to get serious.  If I was polled, I might pick the Kindly Doctor, just because I like him so much.  Send a message, in this case a positive one.  It has nothing to do with anything beyond that.

Like everyone else, I look at the polls for clues about what’s happening.  But, for God’s sake, how many times does it have to said  — polls five months before the first votes are cast have virtually no predictive value.  But if a poll agrees with what I think I’m seeing with my own eyes, I consider it a form of validation.  And what I’m seeing is the death of Jeb!’s campaign.  It’s over.  He’s toast.  We can thank Donald Trump for that.  Jeb! never had a chance, but the Donald did us all a service by dispatching him early in the cycle.

Thanks, Donald.  Whatever else you accomplish is gravy.

You learn things on the internet.  I’m in the Comments section at AT and some guy says Trump is very popular in the black community.  He’s referenced, positively, in a lot of rap.   Maybe they like his support of affirmative action.   No, just kidding, they like his swag, his cockiness, his whole shtick.

I’ve always gotten along with blacks.  When I was a kid in Richmond my buddy and I wandered into the black part of town, and some kids started throwing rocks at us.  So I started to go for them, and take them on.  They were about our size.  But my friend wouldn’t go, so we walked away.  “Them are n……s,” he explained.  That didn’t make any sense to me.  So what?  They threw rocks at me.  I want to kick their ass.

That’s always been my attitude toward blacks.  Treat them no worse, and no better, than anyone else.  Show them respect as fellow Americans.  Do not condescend.

I got my license on my 16th birthday, and my car the day next.  Naturally I had to figure out a way to get beer.  I heard somewhere that if you asked the right kind of black guy, they’d buy beer for you.  So I drive into the black part of Berkeley and find a big liquor store at a busy intersection.  There’s fifteen or twenty black guys hanging out there, drinking from half pints of whisky.  They seem like O.K. guys, so I get out of my car and ask one of them to buy me a six pack.  He says, “Sure” so I hand him a five and in he goes.  I feel a little awkward standing there with these guys, mainly in their twenties and thirties.  I say something about Willie Mays, but they’re not interested.  Out come the guy with my six pack and the change, which I tell him to keep, and thank him.

I did this all the time. I guess it wouldn’t be smart for a white boy to do it today.

Things were better when I was a kid.