Miscellaneous

A guy called Sundance has a website, Conservative Tree House, where he elaborates on his conspiracy theory.  He thinks the RNC and all the mainstream candidates are conspiring to elect Jeb.  Kasich, Christie, Cruz, Rubio etc. aren’t really running for President, they’re all in it only to help Bush and stop his man,  the Donald.

In support of his theory he’s gone to considerable lengths in studying the minutia of delegate selection procedures in each state.   Depending on  when the selection takes place, it’s either proportional or winner takes all.  He makes a pretty good argument that the deck is stacked for a well financed “establishment” candidate to prevail over an insurgent.   Bush 3 was going to have the resources for the long haul.  Less lavishly funded candidates might do well in the early, proportionately awarded states.  But they wouldn’t have the money to transition to the more important winner take all contests.  This is where you start building your delegate totals.

Cruz is ready for this.  He’s going to keep going until the SEC primary on March 1st, where he’s campaigned extensively.  He’s got enough money, he’s got organization, and he’s got some momentum.  He’ll continue to do well in debates.  He’s a finalist.

Rubio’s got the hot hand, but he needs to turn it into money and organization.  He’ll get the money.  We’ll see what kind of campaign he’s got.  If they’re good, they’ll put an organization together.  (I don’t envy these people.  This is a lot of work.  And they’re just getting started.  They’ve got a year of this ahead of them.)

So coming out of March, I think they’re both in it, with the possibility of others as well, of course.  Here’s where Marco has the edge.  Most of the delegates available after March are in bluish states.  Republicans in these states are not the red meat types you see in the South.  They’re more toward the center.  Advantage, Rubio.

Back in January Nate Silver put out an interesting piece about these blue state Republicans.  This piece at 538 elaborates.  They have vastly disproportionate power in the Republican nomination, and bear a large part of the responsibility for McCain and Romney.  Take a Republican in the blackest, most Democrat Congressional district in the country.  That district will send three delegates to the Convention.  4,000 votes could win it.  Take the most Republican district in the country.  It gets three delegates.  To win them, you may need 80,000 votes.  This is an extreme example, but blue states send delegates, even though there may be damn few Republicans in them.   And these are more Rubio than Cruz type people.

I dislike a lot of people, none more than Paul Begala.  But he is what passes for a strategist among the left, so I read what he says.  He has a column out today, in which he says the Republicans are crazy.  That’s it.  That’s the column.

This is a tell.  He has nothing to say.

Bush 3 stupidity continues to astound.  He’s saying “he can fix it.”  What a bunch of morons.  I swear to God, that is the single most idiotic thing I’ve seen so far.  What, he’s going to “fix,” the IRS?  We don’t want it fixed, you dumb bastard.  We want it burned down.

Nate’s new take is up in the New York Times.  He says it could be Rubio.  And he didn’t use even one regression analysis.  Way to go.  I’ll never call you Numbers Nate again.

Kentucky was the last holdout in the South.  But the tide runs strong, and it’s a red state now.  Sam Youngman is a well respected journalist for the Lexington Herald-Leader, and he says yesterday’s election “.. might well have been the end of the Democratic Party …” of Kentucky.

This is extraordinarily important news.  In all likelihood, to get to 34 we’re going to need additional target states to emerge from the 2016 election.  I was convinced we were going to take out Democratic Kentucky House Speaker Greg Stumbo last year.  But this guy is a survivor, and a warrior, and he won’t go down easy.  But with a Republican Governor who hates his guts, a Republican State Senate, and two powerful Republican U. S. Senators lined up against him, I can’t see how he maintains his majority.  Every Republican in the state has the same goal  — take out Stumbo.  At Bevin’s victory celebration they were chanting, “Flip the House.”  A lot of people really don’t like this guy.

In 2016 Kentucky will go for the Republican Presidential candidate 60-40.  How can Stumbo withstand all of this?  He can’t, we get the Kentucky House, and we get Kentucky for the BBA.  The State Senate passed it a few years ago, and it will sail through the legislature in 2017.  If you doubt that, look at what Fruth was able to do in Tennessee  —  three no’s in the whole legislature.

Say this for Stumbo.  He’s the last Democratic presiding officer of a state legislative chamber in the South.  That’s something he can hang his hat on when he loses the Speakership.

We held our own in the Virginia Senate, which was all we could realistically hope for.  McAuliffe put everything he had into beating us, and we were seriously outspent.  Now McAuliffe is a lame duck, and we still have a shot in Virginia.  This is going to be a hard one.  This is going to take an actual campaign, as opposed to lobbying and grass roots.  We have to get the public behind us.  This has to become an issue.  This is going to take money that we do not have.  Someone with some money is going to have to step up if we’re going to get Virginia next year.  It could happen.  Our momentum is building.  But it’s a short session, ending on March 5th, and we don’t have a lot of time.  Biddulph and the Task Force gave it all they had earlier this year, and they didn’t get that close.  If we don’t get Virginia this year it will be available in 2017, when the BBA will be an issue, and we will have the public behind us.

One of the keys to the Republican wins in Kentucky was  County Clerk Kim Davis, who went to jail for refusing to issue a wedding license to gays.  Bevin embraced her, literally, and she was all for him.  She’s a Democrat.  Not for long.

Because Sam Youngman knows what he’s talking about.  Kentucky Democrats are blue dog Democrats, and they’re going extinct.  There are only a few left in the whole country.  When County Clerk Kim Davis switches her party registration she’ll be joined by a lot of her tribe.  I think it’s almost like a tribe, these Scotch-Irish parts of Appalachia.  They’ve been solidly Democrat since before the Civil War, and shrinking all the while.  There’s not that many of them left, and their loyalty to one another is important to them.  They’ll go en masse to the Republicans.

It could start on January 5th of next year.  That’s when the legislature convenes.  If five House Democrats switch parties, Stumbo’s out of the chair.  This could very easily happen.  It happened in the Kentucky Senate a few years back, engineered by Mitch McConnell.  It’s happened all over the South.

These House Democrats are not stupid.  They can see the handwriting on the wall.  There’s no future for the Democratic Party in Kentucky, or anywhere in the South.  They can stay Democrats, and lose next year.  Or switch, and survive.  These good old boys will do what’s best for them.

So, we may have Kentucky as a target come January.  Depending on the self preservation instinct of some very old school southern politicians.

And the tide, rolls, on.

Numbers Nate Silver and the guys at 538.com publish their political bull sessions, where they sit around and B.S. after a hard day crunching the numbers.  I can see them with their feet on their desks, sipping their double cappuchino lattes.  Today they’re trying to decide if either party will have an advantage next year.  They think the R’s might possibly have a teensy weensy advantage.  They can’t decide to call this a 54-46, 52-48, or 51-49 advantage.   Nate himself rejects the idea of Obama being a negative because “… running a regression model based on an n of four is inherently kind of ridiculous.”  As you can imagine, that penetrating insight shut everyone up.  Nate knows how to cut a guy down, hard.  He goes on to say that any Republican advantage will be offset by a teensy weensy Democrat advantage in the electoral college, which is a regression model based on an n of two (2008 and 2012).  Nate just has better regression models, I guess.

They do get around to talking a little about what I think about exclusively:  politics.  They call this the elephant in the room.  No shit, Sherlock.  They accept the idea that a Hillary-Marco match up doesn’t really look that good for the D’s, but they really don’t want to speculate.  I like these guys.  They do try to keep their liberal political opinions out of their analysis.  Nate absolutely nailed the 2012 outcome.  He’s obviously a very bright guy.  But the reason the Republicans almost have this thing in the bag doesn’t show up in any statistic or numerical data point.

After a few beers down in Cabo I wound up in a political conversation with Ryan, a thirtyish North Carolinian who’s moved to San Francisco to pursue a career in apps.  Uber is an app, so you never know.  I don’t think Ryan spends a lot of time thinking about politics, so I said the election next year is real simple.  It’s who you got.  We got Marco Rubio.  You got Hillary. You’re screwed.

Think about it.  A Cubano version of Jack Kennedy, without the baggage, against a stunningly unattractive shrew

Nate and the boys might point to the new WSJ/NBC poll that shows Hillary beating Marco.  That poll is meaningless.  Show me a poll after the American people have had a chance to see these two together on the same stage.  Marco will have to struggle not to appear a bully, it will be so one sided.  But since I can’t prove that with a regression analysis, Nate dismisses it.  See you in September, Nate.

I have a hard time believing we’ll get to 34 next year without Virginia, and they’re having their legislative election today.  I haven’t followed this at all, and really don’t know who’s favored, though the R’s sound confident.  One State Senate seat in Virginia could be the difference between getting there or not.  Biddulph and others on the Task Force have been trying to help in selected races.  If the tide is with us, we should be O.K.

At the end of the evening in Cabo we’re around a bonfire on the beach, and this young fellow asks me what song to play on his little device.  So I say, “What a fool believes, he sees.”   He hadn’t thought about the meaning of that title, and said the reverse was true as well.  But it’s not, as I explained to him.  A fool does not believe what he sees.  He only sees what he believes.

In politics, as in most things, seeing is believing.  And as for Nate and I?

We’ll see.

Because I was young and stupid, when I entered Cal in ’62 I majored in Political Science.  It made sense to me.  I was interested in politics.  In my youth, I was unaware that the term “political science” is not only an oxymoron, a contradiction in terms.  It’s also a tell.  By and large, these people really didn’t know what they were talking about.  What they taught me was mostly horse shit.  Political academics wanted to have the respectability of scientists, even though politics is all art.

And that’s why I’ve always loved politics.  I don’t have a scientific temperament.  Based on the stark contrast between my verbal and math IQ scores, it’s innate.  When I give people like Numbers Nate Silver a hard time, it’s because they try so hard to inject science, or at least math, into an artistic enterprise.  Of course, six months from now I’ll be going to 538.com every day.  Just not yet.

Political science types think our nomination process is a disgrace.  It’s so disorderly, and unscientific.  And long, and expensive, and exhausting.  People even contend that it keeps qualified people from running, though the field this year conclusively rebuts that argument.  Despite all these shortcomings, look at what we’ve learned so far in 2015, largely as a direct consequence of this half-assed system.

Jeb Bush is a really lousy candidate,and Marco Rubio is a gifted political natural.  It’s taken a while for everyone to figure these things out.  We’ve also learned everything we need to know about Perry, Walker, Jindal, Kasich and Paul.

Trump, Carson and Fiorina have given voice to over half of the GOP electorate that is so pissed off at Washington that it doesn’t care about qualifications.  If these three weren’t running we’d have a third party going right now.  And a third party is the only way Hillary could win.  So to the Donald, the Doctor and the lady I say thank you.  Hang in there until the Convention if you want to.  You’re keeping a lot of people in the Republican Party right now.

We’ve also learned that Ted Cruz is the real deal.  He’s not just smart.  He can play the game, which is a lot different than being smart.  If Mario stumbles we have a backup.  And give Christie a little credit.   If they both go down he’s the third string quarterback who at least knows how to handle a snap.

Now it’s November, and our jury rigged system is ready to give us the second act.  Barring divine intervention the two Cubans have four or five months to fight it out.  One of them is the next President.  Is it worth a few months of our time to make a final decision?   Whoever we pick could be President during the eight years this country either gets its act together or starts coming apart.  So let’s take our time.

Since it’s always the economy, stupid, it’s worth keeping an eye on the economic numbers.  If economic growth should suddenly occur it would give Hillary something to talk about.  Third quarter GDP was up 1.5%.  Very weak, and very little prospect of immediate improvement.  If these numbers don’t improve in the next two quarters it’s game over.

I’m at a big wedding here in Cabo and everyone is very nice.  The bride and groom are graduates of Piedmont High, and everyone is either from Piedmont (a wealthy white enclave of Oakland), San Francisco. or Marin.  As you might imagine, I haven’t talked about politics.  Nobody has, thankfully.  When people get too aggressively liberal on me I find it hard to shut up, especially if I’ve had a few.

These people are here to celebrate a wedding, not think about the problems of the world.  But it’s strange to think that all these very nice, educated, upscale people are, when it comes to politics, dumber than stumps.  They don’t know their ass from a hole in the ground, and this is significant.  Most of them are liberals not out of conviction, but convention.  Everybody’s a liberal.  Conservatives are weird somehow, different, unsophisticated.  I really don’t think any of these people really give any thought to politics, at least serious thought.  So when we win next year, solve the country’s problems, and start (in Marco’s delightful phrase) a New American Century these people will be happy.  They are Americans, after all.  They will benefit just like everyone else in the country.  And because they’re really not stupid, they’ll accept it.

I can find potential Republicans anywhere.

The betting markets, Bill Clinton, and I agree.  It’s Marco.  The question for Billy Jeff and the left is, what are you going to do about it?  While we know the slanders are coming, we don’t know when, and we don’t know how. It’s their only realistic hope.  Hillary can only be elected if she’s able to disqualify her opponent.

Bush country doesn’t look like it going to take this lying down, and that’s a good thing.  Throw everything you’ve got at him, I say.  Put everything on the table, so that when it’s Clinton’s turn there’s nothing new to say.  Make it all old news.

As I’ve been saying, fire should be fought with fire, but Rubio and his campaign are not the ones to do the torching.  Especially against a female, attacks can blow back on the attacker.  So Future 45 (the next President will be our 45th) and similar superpacs will need to do the deed.  I hope to affiliate myself with one.  This is the kind of thing that I enjoy, and, if I do say so myself, I know how to do.

I really want to tag Hillary on the racial discrimination that masquerades as benevolent affirmative action.  This is the issue that wins the working class whites in the Midwest, and seals the election.  And it’s an issue Rubio shouldn’t bring up himself.  He wants to be the President of all of America, including blacks.  Strident opposition to affirmative action has nothing to do with racism, but a lot of blacks cannot be convinced otherwise, so Marco won’t do this himself.

One idea for an ad is to have four nice looking young women on camera, white, black, Hispanic and Asian.  The announcer explains that the government will promote the interests of two of these women at the expense of the other two, and ask why?  Then you tie it to Hillary.  It’s a work in progress.

What was it like on that debate stage a few days ago, watching Rubio up close?  It’s got to be a little demoralizing.  This guy is so good, such a natural, that they all knew they were watching a star being born.  The showman Trump, in particular, must have been impressed.  When the time comes, I want the Donald out on the campaign trail for Marco, so that’s important.

I remember reading some semi-scholarly dissertation on the qualities of a leader, back in paleolithic times.  The first was skill in the arts of war. Marco doesn’t have that,  but he’s a bit of a jock, getting a college football scholarship.  The second was being a personally attractive person, the kind of guy other guys like to be around.  The third was communication skills.  There were a bunch of others, like intelligence, coolness under fire, and a sense of justice.  The one that still counts in today’s world is being liked by the ladies.

Babbie is a 68 year old white woman, married to the same man for 44 years, and not particularly interested in politics.  In the first debate she probably saw Rubio on the screen for ten minutes.  Afterward she told me it wasn’t even close.  It was Rubio.   Case closed.

When I first felt the change in the political tide two years ago, I knew it would be historic, but you never know to what extent.  I thought it was going to be so strong that it didn’t really need a leader.  Anybody, a Kascih, for instance, would do.  A modern day Harding, if you will.  But by God we’ve got a leader, and an exceptionally skilled one, and an attractive man and family to boot.

We call this site the Reagan Project for a reason  — respect for the Gipper.  So it’s no disrespect to say it, but Marco Rubio is by far a better politician.

My old buddy Danny Fleming’s boy, Daniel III, is getting married on the beach here at Cabo San Lucas in about 15 minutes.  Big Dan can’t be here, but I know he reads this blog.  It started raining at 4:30, but stopped after 15 minutes, so everything is cool.