Miscellaneous

About the time I posted yesterday the Donald took the stage in Iowa, melted down, and proved me right.  I’m starting to feel like a psychic.  The terrorist attacks in Paris have buried it, but the film from last night we will see again.  And again.

The timing is about right.  The normally level headed Robert Costa of the WaPo was out this morning on the panic sweeping the GOP, the realization that Trump could win, and the laughable need for Romney.  No worries, mate.  That’s a story you’ll wish you hadn’t written.  It’s a joke before it’s 24 hours old.

Trump’s problem is that Carson has caught him in the polls.  How can that be?  He can’t accept it. His ego is so fragile he goes ballistic when he’s not all alone on top.  He’s gone, roughly, from 30 down to 25.  This slide will continue, and the Donald won’t be able to handle it.   When he sinks into the teens he’s going to call it quits.  He hinted at that last night.  If the people of Iowa are so stupid to prefer Carson over him, to hell with them.  He’s got better things to do.  He’s a very rich man, did you know that?  He’s such a success in life we should make him President, and then we’ll be a success too.  And if we aren’t smart enough to figure that out we don’t deserve him.  He sleeps only with supermodels, did you know that?  Have you ever even slept with one supermodel?  Loser.

A final impression from the debate.  (My God, I’m starting to sound like Peggy Noonan.)  Cruz gave a great close, ending with a pitch for his website.  Impressive stuff.  Then Rubio is up, and matches him.  Except at the end, when he’s giving out his website, just as Cruz did, he gets this big grin on his face, laughing at himself for being repetitious.  And Neal Cavuto cracks up with him, smiling at him like he had a man crush.

Two guys, same speech.  Read a transcript, nothing to choose.  But to see how at ease Rubio is in his own skin, and how well he shows it off, is to watch a gifted man.

The Assembly of State Legislatures meeting in Salt Lake has adjourned after its most productive session.  The one state, one vote formula is intact, and stronger than ever.  And legislators from Idaho and Wyoming were there to see it happen, to see the Florida delegation, for instance, stand forthrightly and uncompromisingly for one state, one vote, even though Florida would benefit from population based alternatives.  Special recognition goes to Rep. Jim Stalzer of South Dakota for leading the fight for one state, one vote.

With this behind us we look forward to an easier path to 34, most particularly in Idaho and Wyoming.  Now that they’ve seen, themselves, that it’s one state, one vote, period, we should have a much easier time.

Though I wasn’t there, I must say it did my heart good to know that we had delegations from 27 states, meeting to discuss the procedures to be recommended to an Article V Amendment Convention.  They had recorded votes to resolve contested issues.  Regardless of the size of the delegation, or the size of the state, voting was conducted according to the one state, one vote principle.

As it always has been, and always shall be.

Trump’s  a bully, an asshole and a punk.  It’s time someone took him down.  Christie is the logical choice.  Let’s see if he’s got the balls.

He’s a bully because he builds himself up by cutting other people down.

He’s an asshole, as he proved when he said of eighteen year Congressional veteran, and two term Governor of the State of Ohio, ” I built an unbelievable company, worth billions and billions of dollars.  I don’t have to hear from this man.”  A man who has never won an election in his life, and who managed to invest his inherited wealth just well enough to match the return of an index fund, tells the Governor of the nation’s political bellwether to go to hell.

He’s a punk because he’s lived behind a wall of hired security his whole life, and this, and only this, allows him to go through life hurling base insults at anyone in his way.  Without that wall of security, long ago the Donald would have been knocked on his ass, and lucky if all he suffered was a broken nose.

In case both the Cubans falter we need a backup.  Because of poor political judgment and an unattractive personality, Kasich has thoroughly disqualified himself.  Rand Paul is a terrible communicator.  So it’s Christie.

Trump is in his lane.  The brash, urban, tough talking no bullshit guy from the big city.  Christie has to make a move.  If the relegation to the undercard continues he’s dead meat.  Town meetings in New Hampshire aren’t enough.

Here’s what I’d do.  Turn Trump’s wealth against him.  Explain that because of his cosseted life, he has no idea of what it’s like to struggle to make it in this country.  He was born into an elite class of rich businessmen who use the government at the expense of the common man.  That’s why Trump is all in on eminent domain.  That’s why Trump thinks affirmative action is such a good idea.  And that’s why Trump thinks wages are too high.

Maybe this line of attack could be accomplished on Twitter, which I know nothing about.  Trump uses it a lot, so maybe that’s the way to come at him.

The best part of the debate was watching the Money Honey and Don Juan make eyes at each other.  She was right in the middle of her delivery of a softball when Marco started grinning at her.  The audience had hissed a little when Bartiromo praised Hillary’s experience, but Marco could see where she was going, and he was loving it.  I tell you, it helps if you get along with the ladies.

Once he clinches the nomination Rubio has to resign the Senate, allowing the Governor to appoint an interim replacement. Whoever it is, they will be an incumbent Republican in the general a year from now.  The Florida seat will not be in play if Marco is the nominee.

Per Biddulph the Assembly of State Legislatures voted 14-11, with two abstentions, in favor of the strict one state, one vote principle in the proposed Convention Rules.  I’m shocked the vote was that close.  If we had lost it would have set us back a year, or more.  Too close for comfort.  I should get the full dope tomorrow.

I’m glad I’m not there.  This is the kind of iron butt stuff that I didn’t like in politics.  I did it, but I didn’t like it.  I don’t operate well in groups.  I work better on my own.  Because of this, I had no business in the state legislature.  The whole thing went against my nature.  But I wanted to go to Washington and kick some ass, and this was how I was trying to qualify myself.

I was a terrible politician.  I’d go campaigning door to door on a weekday afternoon, and a lot of housewives would answer, home alone, and I could tell some of them were a little afraid of me.  I’d tell them that I was a candidate for the state legislature, but they were skeptical.

I was so bad that I was losing my first election when my buddy Bill McConkey had George Lukens come out to the house and do a TV spot with me, Babbie, and our three little boys.  That spot won the election.

Thank you, Babbie.

There are a bunch of very confused youths at the University of Missouri.  They need the safe space of the campus in order to function as human beings.  The fact that a drunken white boy may have yelled the “n” word at someone, or someone may have made a crude sign made of feces, has caused enormous emotional turmoil.  These young people need help, and kindly Dr. Carson is the man to give it.

As an M.D., Gentle Ben may not have much training in psychiatric counseling, but he has the natural bedside manner of a caring physician, and may be helpful to these poor souls.  He could tell them a little about his life, and what he’s had to overcome, and the obstacles he has surmounted.  He succeeded because he was tough, he was determined, and he was disciplined.  Perhaps they’d give him a listen.  It would be good for their tormented souls.

We’ll know for sure if Bush 3 is ready to exit the race tonight.  If he goes at Rubio again it’s all over.  A clear sign of desperation.  If he’s fool enough to try, Marco will hand him his head again.  I don’t expect it to happen, but then I’ve overestimated Jeb before.

It’s amazing how quickly this field has sorted out.  Setting aside the media candidates, as any serious analyst should, it’s becoming the consensus that it’s Rubio and Cruz in the all-Cuban main event.

Is this a great country or what?  Their families left Cuba just 50 years ago, and have a convert’s passion for this country, which was passed on to the two of them, and which burns brightly in both.  I admire the hell out of both of these guys, and will be pleased as punch when one of them takes the oath of office.  Yeah, it’s a great country.

Old Stan Greenberg is at it again.  One of the high priests of Democratic Deep Thought, his Democracy Corps did a big survey, and lo and behold the D’s are in great shape.  A big nothing burger.  He gets the kind of results he wants by prefacing his questions with explanations of Republican and Democrat positions on issues.  After hearing these Democrat talking points, they  — surprise!  — agree with the Democrats.

It’s good to be strong in war.  It’s even better to have a weak opponent.  Thank you, Lord, for our opposition.  We are, indeed, blessed.

Everybody talks about the red state/blue state, urban/rural, liberal/conservative divide in this country. As if it’s something new.  We were a hell of a lot more divided in 1787 than we are now.  Virginians and Yankees came from two very different societies and cultures.  They figured out a way to get along, and put it in the Constitution.  It’s called federalism.  It works.  We should give it another try.

Tonight in Salt Lake City a group of state legislators and political activists are meeting to discuss the rules to be suggested for the First Article V Amendment Convention.  At the Assembly of State Legislatures meeting tomorrow the discussion will be broadened, and will include representatives from 30-35 states.

The seed is sprouting.  The soil is rich.  And the sun shines.

Aside from demographics, the Democrats’ Presidential hopes in 2016 are centered on their “blue wall” — eighteen states with 240 electoral votes that they’ve won for a quarter century.  With that as their base, it’s relatively simple for them to tack on another 30 electoral votes for a majority.  But there are weaknesses in the wall, and it’s not really blue.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with 46 electoral votes between them, are among the weakest sections of the wall.  Were it not for a disappointing turnout of working class white men, Romney could have won any of them.  All three state legislatures are firmly under Republican control, and all had Republican Governors until a weak Republican incumbent in Pennsylvania was ousted last year.  Wisconsin and Michigan have gone right to work.   These are not blue states.

Whites vastly outnumber Hispanics in all of them, 82-6 in Pennsylvania, 79-5 in Michigan, and 87-6 in Wisconsin.*  Adding blacks and Hispanics gives you 12% in Wisconsin, 17% in Pennsylvania, and 19% in Michigan.  You don’t need to be Nate Silver to figure it out.  The white vote is key in all three.

Working class whites, in particular, the kind that cling to their guns and religion.  In the spring and summer of 2012 the Democrats attacked Romney so successfully in these states that he was never able to recover.  He was damaged goods, and people wouldn’t give him a second look.  They didn’t like Obama, but they refused to vote for Romney.

I have, with great pleasure, watched Hillary go ballistic on gun control.  I understand why.  It’s the one issue where she is legitimately to Sanders’ left.  It’s also a tell.  She has no intention of trying to reassemble her husband’s electoral coalition.  She’ll win the way Obama did, or she won’t win at all  — with minorities, single women, gentry liberals, gays, Hollywood, trial lawyers and unions.  The gun toting white working class is not needed.

She’s well aware of the dangers in this strategy.  B.J. “Billy Jeff” Clinton, who was in a position to know, says that gun control cost the Democrats the House of Representatives in ’96, and the Presidency in 2000.  She apparently doesn’t care.  She’s basically calling out the NRA  — come and get me, if you can.

The full article is in today’s American Thinker.  Here’s the link.

 

If we get an Article V Convention, and it agrees on a proposed BBA, Congress will decide how it will be ratified.  We assume Republicans will be in control of both the House and the Senate after the 2016 election.  I assume there will be a Republican President.  The most likely scenario is that the 34 state threshold is met in early 2017, in the first months of the new President’s term.  The President will have an opinion on the better mode of ratification.  He will be in the midst of his political honeymoon with Congress, and there will be pressure to accommodate his wishes.

Whoever he is, he will have promised to balance the budget.  There’s a reason John Kasich  –who knows more about balancing the federal budget than the rest of the field combined  —  is the one candidate who has campaigned, and campaigned hard, for a BBA through Article V.  If he is elected, he will balance the budget, but he knows he’s going to need the club of a Constitutional Amendment to beat Congress into submission in order to do it.  Kasich gets it.

I expect Rubio or Cruz to be President in 2017, and they’ll reach the same conclusion as Kasich.  If you want to actually get a balanced budget out of Congress, any Congress, you’re going to have to beat it out of them.  And a Constitutional Amendment, ratified by 38 States, after having been proposed by the States, will be a mighty club.

So the President gets Ryan and McConnell down to the White House, and asks them to choose ratification by State Convention.  It’s been done once before, to repeal Prohibition.  This way you get a decision within a year, meaning it will be in effect within the first two years of the President’s term  —  in time to be of value.  And in purple or blue states with hostile Democratic majorities, the state legislatures are cut out of the process.  It goes to the voters directly, up or down.

I think this is the most likely scenario.  If the Democrats win the Senate next year we’re screwed.  Even if we got to 34 we’d never see the light of day.  If Hillary wins we’re screwed.  She doesn’t really care about the Constitution.

If for some reason Congress chose the route of legislative ratification, we have a problem.  It’s impossible for us to have complete control of 38 state legislatures, which means a legislative chamber controlled by Democrats would have to pass it.  This could be very difficult.  Something which is viewed as extreme or partisan could be stopped by a handful of Democratic state legislators.

This is the challenge for the Amendment Convention.  They must craft a proposal designed to appeal to purple state voters in Maine, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon.  Input from well meaning and serious Democrats would be appreciated.  But they should not have veto power over this decision.  That should be up to a simple majority of the states, or 26.  We will rely on the political judgment of these 26 state delegations.  They will decide what can be ratified, and what cannot.

This argument will be conducted at the Assembly of State Legislatures meeting in Salt Lake on Wednesday, November 11th, 1:00 MST.  It may be on C-Span.  You can get a live stream off the  Assembly of State Legislatures website.

Perhaps I’m a little out of touch, living up here in the mountains, but if I’m a voter in Missouri and I see what’s going on at the University I’m going to be royally pissed off.  It’s an absolute disgrace.  The thing is, this has been going on for decades.  I remember a lot of this exact same stuff happening in the 60’s.  These university people have absolutely no balls.  Nobody remembers Sen. S. I. Hayakawa of California, but he stood up to these crazy bastards at S.F. State, and got elected to the U. S. Senate because of it.

There are political implications to a lot of the craziness that’s going on.