Author: Fritz Pettyjohn

As I obsess over the size of the Republican resurgence (or, more precisely, the Obama rejection) which will come on Nov. 4, I worry about events which could dampen it. Back in ’95, fresh off the 1994 Republican wave that gave us a House Majority, we were sailing along — and then came McVeigh and the Oklahoma City bombing. It was used by the media to discredit all criticism of the Federal Leviathan, and our sails went limp.
Obama’s decision to go after the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria worried me at first. It could be a game changing event. Americans are pissed at these guys, and want them punished. If Obama managed to blow a bunch of these bastards up before November it would give his party a boost.
But the more you think about it, the less likely it is that Obama will take bold action, and be given credit for it. He’s clearly being reactive, and bowing to political pressure. His heart’s not in it, and his head is too empty to do it even if he wanted to.
I’ll make a personal admission — I think Obama’s right. Aside from securing Israel, we have no business in the Middle East. We’ve fracked our way out of dependence on it, and the only people who deserve support are the Kurds, who I do want to help. The rest of them should be encouraged to kill each other to their heart’s content.
Islam is a religion of war. Raping ten year old girls is OK — you just “marry” them first, as the Prophet himself did. These people are fanatics, who have nothing to contribute to the 21st century. I say get the hell out, and let God sort them out.
But, politically, that’s hard to do. So Obama has embraced a tar baby, it seems to me. And given his incompetence, and that of his inner circle, it’s almost guaranteed this whole thing will be a huge mess all the way to November and beyond. The only thing he’s got in his favor is the press, which will go overboard to defend whatever he does. But it won’t be enough.
So the wave has even more wind headed to its back. We could pick up ten seats in the Senate. And in addition to the Kentucky House, we could get Maine, or Oregon, along with strengthened majorities in places like Montana and Arizona.
In Arizona, that could mean additional State Senators, maybe enough to oust Andy Biggs from the Senate Presidency. Monday’s meeting with him went as I knew it would. He basically told us to fuck off. We’ll either get rid of Biggs, or go around him. If the latter, we may wait until we’ve got 33, then make our move.
Rep. Ken Ivory says he thinks we’ll get Utah next year. That’s a change in his tune. Though he’s a big supporter, he wasn’t even willing to try earlier this year. Rep. Kraig Powell stepped up, and we dang near won. I want Utah — it’s one of my four states, so I’ll be flying back to lobby and testify.
Signs are also very good in South Dakota. Hal Wick is feeling pretty good about 2015. We made a somewhat half-hearted effort this year, and still came within one vote.
With a substantial R majority (thank you, wave) we should get Montana. Hell, they got it in 2007 and 2011, so we can sure as hell get it again.
So my goal of having 31 by the end of 2015 looks doable. 24 plus WS, SC, KY, ND, SD, MT, WY and UT would be 32. Then we win big in the 2015 Virginia state legislative elections, and get it along with Idaho, Oklahoma, Arizona and West Virginia — that’s 37, giving us a margin for error.
Lord willing.

Brent Mead of the resurrected Montana Policy Institute told me this morning that the best thing Montanans for a Balanced Budget could do right now is help State Senate candidate Jedediah Hinkle in District 32 — East Bozeman. He’s running against Rep.Franke Wilmer, who chairs the Poly Sci dept. at MSU.
At first glance, she looks pretty smooth, and Jed looks a little rough.
Brent says it’s tight, and I believe him. In a tight race in East Bozeman in 2014 a little can go a long way.
This could be fun — a State Senate race in a district that’s a bit like the one I won in 1982.
Brent’s a savvy guy, and I feel 1,000 % better about Montana after our long talk. He says they passed our Reso in 2011, but it was flawed. And the Birchers shouldn’t be a problem. He just started bringing the Institute back to life, and I think he sees working successfully with us as a feather in its hat. He works closely with Sen. Wittich, who is a former sponsor and the foremost expert on Article V in the Montana legislature.
Brett says me may want to a stealth campaign — we’ll have to see how the election turns out.
He made a good impression. I feel like I’ve got eyes and ears in Montana. If we can help elect Hinkle, we’ll have friends as well.

I love that name. He chairs Senate Appropriations in Wyoming, is a former Speaker and Republican nominee for governor. If we get him to take the lead we’re half way home in the Land of the Cowboy. Lew Uhler is trying to get Dick Cheney to help convince him. Maybe Micah at SGLF could help.
Amy Edmonds of the Wyoming Liberty Group (WLG) told me about him. It’s wishful thinking, but T think we can get WLG and old Eli pushing it — and we’ll get ‘er done.

A government shutdown, like the one last October, happens when the House won’t spend money that the Senate and President want.
Even though the House is well within its historical and constitutional perogatives, it’s still the House’s fault. I think that’s bullshit, but I’m in a minority.
So Obama’s “plan” was to unilaterally legalize 5 million illegals, provoking the House Republicans into another shutdown. Just about every Republican, including Ted Cruz, I believe, said now way, Jose.
So Obama’s going to wait until after the election to legalize them.
Damn! I always kind of doubted that Obama and his political team were so incredibly stupid that they’d do it before the election.
Oh, well.
A lot of chatter about the wave. Most seem to think that if one were coming we’d see clearer signs of its approach.
Maybe. Maybe not.
I like to fantasize about this being a realignment election, like ’32 or ’46. But more likely it’s like 1980. Except with no Reagan, and none in sight.
I remember 1980. I was Frank Murkowski’s deputy campaign manager up in Alaska, but I was watching the national scene, knew what was happening.
I remember this — on Labor Day in 1980 no one, and I mean no one, could see a sign of a wave.
But it was coming.

In the first four months of 2015 we get MT, WY, UT, ND, and SD — getting us to 29. Utah and South Dakota are looking better, so I’m including them. Then South Carolina — 30. Then Kentucky — 31. Then Wisconsin — 32. So just as the Republican nomination fight begins in earnest, toward the close of 2015, Virginia legislative elections are held in November. An issue in these elections is Article V — will Republican legislative candidates in Virginia support an Article V BBA?
At this point any Republican strategist who is paying attention will realize the impact a successful Article V move toward a BBA will have on the 2016 general election. So the Presidential campaigns (or most of them) embrace our efforts, and help us in Virginia. And they help, and fund, our efforts in Arizona (33), Oklahoma (34), Idaho (35), Virginia (36) and West Virginia (37).
I don’t know where the drama of the 34th state passing the reso will take place — Phoenix? Boise? Richmond? But it will be a national story. The whole issue of a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution will generate a lot of stories. Article V will have to be explained to the low information voter.
Then Congress aggregates the 34, and sets a time and place for the Amendment Convention, and also chooses a means of ratification — by special ratification conventions, or by state legislatures.
Drama in each state as delegations are selected, and delegate limitations are debated.
Drama over the election of the Convention Chairman, and then all of the deliberations and votes of the Convention.
And, if the timing works, elections to the ratification conventions take place in November 2016, coinciding with the Presidential election.
If I’m a Republican running for President, this is the dream scenario.
And it could happen.