Author: Fritz Pettyjohn

If we don’t get this done by 2016 we’re going to need a Republican Senate.  Even if we’re all done with the BBA we want a Republican Senate, in order to be sure that the next Article V application (probably term limits) is treated fairly.  The R’s are vulnerable in 2016 Senate races.  This is the class of the 2010 wave, and a number are from purple or red states.  We need a strong Presidential candidate to help them.

All of which makes Obama’s amnesty important to me.  Politically, I think it’s the best thing Obama’s done, except for Obamacare.  He won’t be content until he’s driven the last white working man out of the Democratic Party.

And tar baby that he is, Hillary’s stuck with him.  She can’t escape.  And she’s doomed.

Thank God for NFIB, and their lobbyists.  In North Dakota it’s former long time legislator Rae Ann Kelsch.  She’s as impressive as Suzie Budge in Idaho.

Hal Wick is pitching in in North Dakota, and he and Rae Ann agree Rep. Blair Thoreson should be our prime sponsor.  Between the two of them there’s little doubt he’ll agree.  Reps. Roscoe Streyle and Rick Becker should also be helping out.

Rae Ann was serving in the legislature when former Sen.Curtis Olafson got an Article V Resolution on the national debt passed.  The Republican vote was unanimous — no problem with the “runaway” scaremongering.  She says most of the Birchers are in Olafson’s district, and they aren’t that strong.  We really shouldn’t have that much trouble in North Dakota — except they have a lot on their plate.  For one thing I’m pretty sure they’re working on their version of the Alaska Permanent Fund —  big time legislation.  And we only get one shot.  They do not meet in  2016.

Hal says he thinks he’ll get the Reso through in South Dakota by early February.  After that he can concentrate on North Dakota, which won’t adjourn until the end of April.  He’s a retired Delta pilot, and can fly for free.  He’s volunteered to go to Boise, Helena, wherever.  He’ll be a big asset.

Rep. Kraig Powell was and is our Utah sponsor — and one of our very best.  We came up short earlier this year, 32-41 in the House.  NFIB’s Candace Daly will be working closely with Kraig.  She’s agreed to put together a spread sheet of returning yeas and nays, along with new members who have to be brought up to speed.  Rep. Brian Greene is a stalwart supporter — he just had an Article V debate with an Eagler at some public forum.  If he’s willing to work hand in glove with Kraig, it will be a huge help.

Of the four new House leaders, three voted against us — Hughes (Speaker), Dunnigin (Majority Leader), and Gibson.  But they don ‘t have the Birch-Eagle brain virus, so we should be able to reason with them.  They’re “moderates” by Utah standards, which means they’re conservative, just not Tea Party.  Kraig thinks they voted no because they thought our Reso was Tea Party radical — not mainstream.  I’m going to try and get Micah from the Republican State Leadership Council talk to them.  RSLC is an official arm of the Republican Party  — a state legislature version of the Republican Governor’s Association.

The House is now 64-11.  That means we can lose 26 of the 64 Republicans and still win.  Kraig says three seats the D’s lost went to R’s who will almost surely be on our side.  The magic number is 38.

I’ve got to believe we can do this.

Article V is going to happen.  No doubt in my mind.  But when?

It is possible we come up short, even in 2016.  That won’t be the end of it.  We’ll hold the House in 2016, but it will take a favorable environment, and a good Presidential candidate, to hold the Senate.  We need a Republican Congress to honestly aggregate 34 state resolutions — no funny business.

We’ve got plenty of good Presidential candidates, and unless something fairly drastic happens, we’ll have a good political environment.  2014 showed that the Democrat national coalition is weakening.

Blacks —  without Obama on the ticket, the D’s will get their 90%, but with lower turnout.  And D’s better be damn careful about criticizing the first black President.  For blacks, he’s their guy, and they’re sticking with him.

Latinos — Obama is giving them amnesty, but I don’t think it buys their loyalty.  In 2016 they’re going to want a good economy, just like everybody else.  R’s may misplay their hand with Latinos, so they’ll be up for grabs.

Yutes — How the hell do you get a 20 year old excited about Hillary Clinton?  First woman prez?  Whoop-te-do.  How about a job?  Obama will have had eight years to get the economy up to speed, and not much to show for it.  Yutes wil be ready for change.  They usually are.

Asians — fastest growing minority, and the R’s split their vote this time.  Maybe it was that video of the Asian shopkeeper being knocked around by the gentle giant in Ferguson.  Maybe it was the realization that the D’s will sell them out to help blacks.  They belong in the Republican Party,and they will find a good home there.

Jews — We got about a third, higher than normal.  Obama seems to have a real attitude toward Israel.  He sees it as a white European colonial power.  His obvious distaste for the Jewish state will drive more Jews to the R’s.

Women — The whole war on women thing is looking weak.  Unless we nominate a whack job like Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee we should do much better with women.  Senator Uterus in Colorado was the last gasp.

Whites — the migration of the working white man to the R’s is almost complete.  Romney didn’t appeal to these guys.  Any of the R field will do better.  Beginning in May of 2012 the D’s savaged Romney, he had no money to fight back, and he lost a lot of these votes in PA, MI, WI, OH.  I think the R’s will figure out a way to prevent that from happening again.

None of the above depends on anything Obama will or will not do.  Based on everything that’s happened since the election, he won’t do the D’s any good, and will probably do a lot of harm.

So 2016 will be good for Article V, and Republicans.  We will continue to try and expand the playing field, looking for wins, and total control, in the Maine House, Kentucky House, Minnesota Senate, Washington House, and Oregon House and Senate.  Potentially five new targets.

So, in the dreaded event that I’m still working on this two years from now, things will be looking good.

The wave has washed us ashore, and the wind blows strongly at our backs.

I figured Idaho would be one of those states that would have to wait until 2016.  Too many Birch-Eaglers.

My wife and I spent a few days in the Idaho panhandle recently.  I liked the locals quite a lot.  They seemed like my kind of people.  Politically hard core.  Really hard core.  It was where you’d expect to find Birchers, Eaglers, and militiamen.  I figured they even were stronger in Idaho than Utah or Oklahoma.  Back in February, our sponsor, Sen. Marv Hagedorn, couldn’t get the bill out of the first committee of referral.

Today Bill Fruth and I got a chance to discuss all this with Suzie Budge, NFIB’s veteran Idaho lobbyist.  A woman who obviously knows what she’s talking about.  She sees the political appeal of this issue, and thinks we can get it through the House; and if we can convince Majority Leader Bart Davis we can get the Senate.

Davis is no Andy Biggs.  He’s a lawyer, is not Birch/Eagle, and is open to reason.  We’ll get Natelson with him one on one and I’ll bet he’ll come around.

Lots of other stuff in Idaho as well.  Greg Casey of BIPAC for the establishment R’s.  Wayne Hoffman of the Idaho Freedom Foundation for the Tea Party R’s.

We can get Idaho.

Dysfunction in Washington right now is a good thing, from an Article V perspective.  If there were a bunch of adults back there, trying to figure out how to get us out of this hole we’re digging, people might want to hold off on something as unprecedented as Article V.  So I’m waiting for Ferguson Missouri to erupt in black violence.

This is a very bad thing, don’t get me wrong.  Put yourself in the shoes of the peaceful, law abiding people that live there.  Their town will be taken over by violent hoodlums and imported rabble rousers.

The big media won ‘t say it, but there are a lot of people who know why this will be happening.  Obama used Ferguson as a way to jack up the black vote.  It’s truly disgraceful.  You’d think there would be more thoughtful black people who would speak out about this.

Obama is serene in his faith that he is on the right side of history, that he is riding a strong current in a big river.  So he’ll stick to his guns the next two years, confident in his legacy of righteousness.  No give.  No backing down.  None of that half way stuff.

Hell go down hard.

We had a conference call on Wyoming last Friday, had one on Montana today.  Later in the week we’re doing Idaho, Washington, North Dakota and Utah.  Daniel Markels of NFIB set them up.

Montana’s the big one.  If we come up short in North Dakota or Wyoming, in the spring of 2016 we can ask the Republican presidential frontrunners to contact the Governors of North Dakota or Wyoming to call a special session to take up the BBA.  This would only happen, of course, if we’re close.  If we’re not close it may not matter.

Won’t happen in Montana, with a D governor.  So Montana is priority #1.  Everybody’s got limited time, and a tendency to spread themselves a little thin.  Not in Montana.  If I have to camp out in Helena for ten days, and buttonhole legislators, I’ll have to do it.  I won’t do it in Wyoming, or anywhere else.

It’s Montana or bust.