Author: Fritz Pettyjohn

Natelson won’t make it to Helena due to ill health, so Bill Fruth will make the main argument to the assembled legislators on Monday.  I’ll be there as well, just like Wyoming.

Wyoming is our inspiration.  People in Montana can’t be more conservative than people in Wyoming. It wouldn’t make sense.  Six weeks ago we didn’t even have a sponsor in Wyoming, and the NFIB lobbyist there said we didn’t really have much of a chance.  We won 44-16.  All we have to do is replicate in Montana what we did in Wyoming.  A piece of cake.

The more I’m learning, the better I feel about our chances in committee.  Freshman Zac Perry is a committee Democrat from Hungry Horse, just north of Bigfork.  He won with 42% of the vote running against a libertarian Republican and Libertarian.  This dude is vulnerable, and he knows it.  Does he align himself, on this issue, with the Birchers and the Democrats or with the conservative and moderate Republicans?  His brief voting record so far is what you’d expect from someone from this part of Montana.  I think we can get Zac.  I look forward to having a good conversation with him.  He even looks like a good guy, someone I could be comfortable talking to.  My son Brendan will start ginning up calls from his constituents tomorrow.  We have a real shot at this guy.  And I think we’ll get Theresa Manzella as well.  Her district is crawling with Birchers, but she’s not one herself.  They’re just the only constituents she’s heard from on this.

We may argue and lobby our way past the committee, but to win on the floor it’s going to take strong support from the public.  I’m going to try to get the press really interested in this story.  Matthew says they love writing stories about fights inside the Republican caucus.  This is a fight between normal Republicans and kool-aid Republicans, so it will appeal to them.  It’s got national implications, as I’ll explain to the reporters.  It’s Montana or bust for the BBA.  Hell, Kasich was just there pushing it.  It involves an issue, federal spending, which a lot of people care about.  Article V itself is a little exotic.  The army of Birchers we’re expecting at the hearing adds some local color.  I hope they all come dressed in camo, as members of the Montana Militia.  I hope they’re armed.  I hope they issue threats.  If I was a little younger I wouldn’t mind some fisticuffs with these whack jobs, as long as it was on camera.

I get carried away.

South Dakota House, 38-31.  We counted on Hal Wick, and he came through.  Wyoming House, 44-16.  A lot bigger margin than we were expecting.  Very, very encouraging.  We’re confident of Senate passage in both, so we will soon need only eight more.

I spoke today with Idaho House Ways and Means Chair Christy Perry, who will be taking point.  She asked for a couple things, which we sent her.  Idaho adjourns in about two months, so the pressure is on.  She thinks we need to shoot it quickly through the House, and then take up the main fight in the Senate.  Speaker Bedke has made this a priority bill for House leadership, so we should be OK there.  NFIB lobbyist Suzi Budge has maintained all along that the House will be a lot easier than the Senate.  Bill Fruth says he’s willing to go to Boise with Natelson, so we’ll need to set that up, along with everything else we’re doing in Montana.  If the Wyoming vote is a sign of things to come, we could get Idaho this year.  Palin could help, and would, I believe, if we could get a chance to make our case to her.

Until we get through Montana, it will remain our top priority.  Fruth and Natelson are teaming up in the Capitol at noon on Monday.  That’s our best shot.

Virginia’s starting to look interesting.  We’re out of committee in both Houses, and may get floor votes as early as Friday.  The House looks within reach.  The Senate is a throw of the dice.  If by some chance we could steal Virginia it would be a shocker, and a sign of major momentum behind this whole movement.

Getting it done in 2015 was always a long shot.  It could still happen, but only if we get major support, and quickly.  From a partisan Republican standpoint, 2015 is massively better than 2016.  If we do it in 2015 there will be an actual proposed amendment which the Democrat would have to take a stand on.  If it’s 2016 the Democrat can say she’ll keep an open mind until she sees what’s actually proposed.  So if there were any really smart Republicans out there, who had money, they’d be climbing aboard.

It’s amazing how dumb some of these rich guys are.  Foster Friess, bankrolling Santorum?  Sheldon Adelson, backing Gingrich?  They get behind some of the most politically idiotic things you can think of.  It makes you wonder how they made all their money.

There’s got to be one smart one.

36 in South Dakota, 31 in Wyoming.  We’re up for final passage in the House in both, and those are the votes we need.  The first big test.  We’re pretty much a lock in South Dakota, and look strong in the Senate as well.  Wyoming is an open question.  If we get the House, we will get the Senate, no doubt.  Bill Fruth and I met a lot of these Representatives in Cheyenne last week, and they certainly seemed open to our arguments.  But the Birchers will be spreading wild conspiracy and end of times theories, and you never know.  I’d be severely disappointed in these people if they fall for it.  We’ll see.

In Montana the vote we need to get out of Judiciary is Theresa Manzella, from Hamilton, fifteen miles east of the Idaho border, and the Continental Divide.  It’s rugged and beautiful country.   She’s a horse woman, and moved from back East to be in real horse country.  A proud, patriotic American.  But she drank the kool-aid.  My son Brendan is calling voters in her district from Bozeman tonight.  He’ll ask them to call her and ask for her vote.  I checked the phone number she lists in the Legislative Directory to make sure it worked, and she picked up.

I know one phone call she could get that would bring her around.

From Sarah Palin.

We need one of the two or we won’t get out of the Montana House Judiciary Committee.  Matthew Monforton is counting on Natelson to bring them around, but Rob caught a bug in Pierre and won’t be in Helena next week as planned.  We’ve been scrambling all day to figure out a new plan, and it’s in the works.  Fruth will also give his highly persuasive pitch, and I saw in Cheyenne that it can turn votes.

I’ve reached out to Sarah Palin through an old friend from the Alaska Legislature, Jerry Ward.  He tells me he’ll get my proposal to her, and that’s all I can ask.  Alan Doane is from rural northeast Montana, Teresa Manzella is from the rural southwest Montana.  People from these parts of the country love Sarah Palin.  She reminds them of them.  If she’ll agree to a 30 second robocall, I’d bet the farm that it motivates people to write or call their Representative to support HJ 4.  Jerry may have trouble getting through to her, since she just told the WaPo she’s interested in running for President.  She’s probably being overwhelmed with reaction to her statement.  But Jerry will get through.  He’s one of those guys who does what he says he’ll do.

Utah convenes tomorrow, so I’ll need to start working with Kraig Powell.  It will be a fight all the way, just like Montana and Wyoming.

Idaho is another place I’ll need to check on.  Kasich was there Friday, and may have helped kick start things.  He was on Fox News Sunday today, and was on his game.  He talked about the BBA, and how it would be good if we had a convention  — a learning experience for young people.  He did not, thankfully, downplay our chances or say he hopes an Amendment Convention would be avoided by Congress passing a BBA itself.  Neither statement is helpful.

Kasich handles himself as well or better than anyone else in the field.  That’s good for us.  The more attention people pay to him, the more opportunity he’ll have to promote the BBA.

Bill McIlvain will be working the halls in Wyoming next week.  We went over our list of targets together today, and it sure seems to us that he, Tyler and Dan should be able to get to 31.  South Dakota #25, Wyoming #26.

That would be sweet.

We were sure of only two going into the committee meeting, and I’m convinced Bill Fruth’s power point presentation on the need for the amendment convinced a couple of the members.  Sponsors Lindholm and Laursen think some of these were strategic votes, with an eye toward killing it on the floor in a voice vote to advance the bill.  Frankly, I’m skeptical of this theory, but we’ll find out Monday.

Former Speaker Bill McIlvain was and is enormously helpful.  He got Fruth and Speaker Kermit Brown together, and we found out that he had technical legal objections to the DLA which was causing him to also oppose our Reso.  We’re killing the DLA, and this seems to have brought him around.  McIlvain is old friends with Senate Majority Eli Bebout, and he is now aboard as well.  All in all we’re pretty confident about the Senate.  In the House we believe we have 20 votes, and are targeting close to 30 more.  We’ll only need eleven of these targets for a majority.  If something crazy happens in the House we have Senate sponsors who are ready to put in a bill on a moment’s notice.  They could shoot it through the Senate and over to the House for another go.

South Dakota is on track for a House floor vote next week.  Hal says presentations by Natelson and Fruth last Monday sealed the deal.  Over 30 years of dedication are about to pay off for Hal Wick.

Kasich’s trip to Montana was a bust because of the Senator from the John Birch Society Scott Sales.  He disrupted everything by going after Kasich over Ohio’s Medicaid expansion. Elsewhere the trip went quite well, as far as I know.  I saw him in Cheyenne and everything went smoothly.  It was big news in Wyoming; on TV and the front page of the statewide paper, the Casper Tribune.  I’m beginning to think we don’t win this thing unless the public, generally, understands it and gets behind it.  It’s too big a dal, there’s too much resistance.  Kasich as elped, and can continue to help, educate people.

Also in Montana, Mathew Monforton says he’s got two Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee who are no’s because of a fear of a runaway.  That’s just enough to kill the bill.  We’ll be up in committee on Feb. 3rd.  He was hoping that Natelson could turn them around on Tuesday, but Natelson caught a bug in Pierre and is laid up.  I’ve requested that he get well and join Fruth and I in Helena a week later, on Monday, Feb. 2nd.  The two of them could repeat the South Dakota performance that proved so effective.  Matthew is setting up some kind of wine and cheese reception after the session that day and swears he can get these guys to come and listen.

The robocall campaign produced mixed results, and we’re changing it.  In Montana calls will go into the districts of the two R’s on Judiciary asking if the respondent supports a balanced budget amendment.  If yes, my son Brendan, in Bozeman, will be given the number and call them personally to ask them to contact their Representative.  He knows the issue well enough to explain the significance of the BBA, the safety of Article V, and the importance of Montana.  He’s good on the phone, if a little windy.  Most importantly, he’s calling from Montana.  I don’t think this works nearly as well if the call is coming from out of state.  But if the list is too long for him we can get Typhoon Lou to have the calls made.  If this works we’ll use it elsewhere as well.

Since I’ve got to be in Montana on Monday the 2nd, I’ll go early and watch the Super Bowl with sons Brendan and Darren and some of their friends.  I’ve invited Bill Fruth to join us.

I’m trying to remember who’s playing.