Author: Fritz Pettyjohn

I’ll be on the Chris Griffin Show KMMS 1450 AM Bozeman at 7:00 a.m. MST, and the Michael Dukes Show KBYR 700 AM Anchorage at 7:30 a.m. AST.

It should be fun.  It’s been a while.

It will be at 1:00 p.m.  MST tomorrow, available for viewing or listening via the Montana Legislature website.  When there’s a close vote, with an uncertain outcome, a good speech can swing a vote or two.  Not in Congress, but it does happen in state legislatures.

It helps being a lawyer, like Matthew Monforton.  You’re accustomed to addressing judges, and juries.  And good lawyers, like Matthew, speak well extemporaneously, and are skilled in rebuttal.

He plans on taking on the Birch Society.  Not the individual Birchers, but the organization.  It’s fertile ground.  As I’ve argued previously, the Democrats whose votes we need have good reason to want to crush the Birch Society in Montana.  It’s a malign influence in the politics of the state.  If Montana passes an Article V Resolution, their irrelevancy will have been proven beyond a reasonable doubt.

So, go Matthew.  I made a few such speeches myself, back in the day.

They were fun.

Would a BBA really work?  I think it depends.  I doubt it would do much to restrain Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi.  I don’t think the whole Constitution thing means a whole lot to them.

I think Hillary’s different, partly because of Bill.  He was the last President to balance a budget, and she would want to match his record, if not exceed it.   Right now the Republican frontrunner is Jeb Bush.  If a BBA is in place, or imminent, Hillary would embrace it, and promise to implement it.  She would point out that the last President to balance the budget was a Democrat, who happens to be her husband.  He was followed in office by Jeb’s brother, a Republican, who promptly blew through the trillions in reserve that were bequeathed to him by his predecessor.

So if it’s Clinton v. Bush, advantage Clinton on balancing the budget.  At least in historical, Presidential terms.  She could use the BBA to beat up Bush about his brother’s record.  What’s he going to do, admit the truth, that his brother’s a dope?

We haven’t had a lot of help from Democrats, though that may be about to change in Montana.  Once we pass this thing the Democrats will change their tune.  They would have no choice.  An Article V Amendment is the voice of the people.  In embracing it, the Democrats would neutralize one of their weaknesses  — the big spender tag.  One of the defining issues of 2016 would be how, exactly, we’re going to balance the budget in the timeline set out in the Amendment.  Hillary could talk about making the wealthy pay their fair share, and Bush would promise no new taxes.  This would have to have a positive effect on confidence in our economic future.  Another virtuous circle, as economic confidence grows, the economy grows, making it easier to actually balance the damn thing.

This is all bullshit.  I know.  Sitting around predicting how something will play out politically eighteen months from now is a fool’s game.  But it’s as plausible as any other scenario.  And it shouldn’t scare Democrats.

At least the good ones.

When informed that Sen. Monroe was wavering, and could cost us South Dakota, Lew called Alan Unruh of Sioux Falls, a chiropractor, like Monroe, who knows him very well.  Unruh’s wife is head of Right-to-life in South Dakota, and Monroe is strongly pro-life.  Unruh called Monroe, had a good conversation, and got a firm commitment to a yes vote on Tuesday.  If we lose in the South Dakota Senate, it won’t be because of Monroe.

Thank you, Lew.

That’s what Democratic Senator Bill Ray of Juneau used to ask when someone asked him for a political favor.  Do Montana Democrats have a dog in the fight between normal Republicans and the Birch whack jobs over HJ 4?  What’s in it for them?

For the Birch Society this is a very big deal.  If you go to their web site and look around you’ll see that the fight against Article V is their reason for being.  It’s the only specific thing they’ve had going for them for the last 25 years, that and their Support Your Local Sheriff program.  I’m not making this up.  In our work around the country we’ve found that Montana is their strongest state, along with Oklahoma.  If they lose in Montana, they can’t win anywhere, and the path to 34 is clear.  A successful Amendment Convention, on any subject, would drive a stake in the heart of the John Birch Society.

This would be good for the Republican Party, and the country, but would it be good for Democrats, in Montana and nationally?  I’ve argued yes, but a straight political calculation is complicated.  What’s not complicated is that both political parties in this country have an interest in an opposition party that is not influenced by nutcases.  There are many cases where bipartisan cooperation is needed to solve problems.  We haven’t seen much of that in Congress recently, but if you want a big fix to a big problem you can’t dance alone, you need a partner from across the aisle.

So it turns out that what’s good for the country is also good for the Democratic Party.  In Montana and elsewhere, the message to Democrats is clear.

Don’t let the Birchers win.