Author: Fritz Pettyjohn

Natelson thinks Nicholas has a hard on for our bill.  I disagree, but what do I know?  I previously stated that we’d need 20 of 30 Senators to vote to take up our bill in 2016.  I took another look at the Wyoming Constitution.  I was wrong.  You need a 2/3 vote in either chamber, not both.  With our 44-16 margin in the House we could get to 2/3.  Or, alternatively, Gov. Mead could call a special session immediately upon adjournment next year.

Either way, we’d have a shot.  If Wyoming was lined up to be our 32nd, or 33rd, it could happen.  I said we didn’t want to go there.

But you do what you’ve got to do.

Sponsor Rep. Chris Kapenga has told us to let him handle it.  He says it won’t happen until very late in the year because they’ve got as lot of other stuff to do, like the budget.  I read Kapenga as an ambitious kid who was born to scheme, and I wonder if he’s trying to maximize the attention given to the Wisconsin vote by making it the 31st, rather than, say, the 28th state.  We have not received any sign of support from Gov. Walker up to now, which is surprising.  Back in December of ’13 I predicted that either Kasich, Paul or Walker would pick up the BBA ball and run with it.  Walker and Paul chose not to, perhaps because Kasich had already put his brand on it.  After Ohio passed it in November of ’13 Kasich sent a letter to all the Governors of target states, asking them to get behind the effort within their state.  Walker got that letter, and declined to follow Kasich’s lead.  For whatever reason.  Rivalry, whatever.

The Wisconsin legislature is open for business year round, and can pass our Reso whenever they want.  The votes are there this year.  It could really be done any time.  If Walker declares for President this summer, how does he intend to deal with this issue?  I have no idea.  But if Kasich declares he can smoke him out.  He can smoke them all out, challenge Bush et. al. to join him in his ongoing campaign to get Arizona, Oklahoma and Idaho to be the 32nd, 33rd, and 34th states.

Hell, he can smoke Walker out before he decides to declare.  He can go to Wisconsin any time in the next few months and make the case.  I’m not sure, but I believe Kapenga would cooperate.

My flight to Denver was cancelled, so I’m going through Boise with 30 minutes to make the connection to Denver.  Dicey.  I may not get to Cheyenne in time for the hearing.  We should be able to get a continuance of a day or two.  I need to be there, unless Fruth gets a firm commitment from Sen. Nicholas this afternoon, which I doubt.

But, on the other hand, he is the Closer.

(1)    We can’t count on Democrats.  We may have had as many as ten, led by Rep. Ellie Hill.  That would have offset the loss of eighteen Republicans, almost a third of the caucus.  But when the call came from Governor Bullock it was game over.   We can expect the same as we move into other states.  The leadership of the Democratic Party is scared to death of a BBA through Article V.  If this becomes a big issue in 2016 they think it will kill them.

Actually, they’re probably right, as I’ve been saying for months.

(2)    We’ve been noticed.  The Soros funded Center for Budget and Policy Priorities may have a number of different priorities.  I’m betting beating us is number one.  Soros will give them all the money they need.  And we can’t assume they won’t play dirty.  They will, if it comes down to it.  Some on the Task Force have wanted to stay low profile, hoping we wouldn’t be discovered by the left.  I’ve always disagreed.  The left isn’t that stupid.

(3)    We need public support.  People have to know and understand what we’re doing.  They won’t help us if they don’t know who the hell we are.  We want publicity.  When people google Article V I want the Reagan Project popping up #1.  The Balanced Budget Amendment Task Force was a name chosen by a committee of accountants, or something.  It sucks.  The Reagan Project’s got some pop.  Sometimes when I’m wandering around the woods in the evening, having a cold one, I try to think up some kind of publicity stunt, some gimmick, to get earned media.  I’ll keep at it.  I did a show with Glen Biegel in Anchorage, KOAN, a couple days ago.  For me, he was the perfect host.  Gave me this glowing introduction, about how I had introduced him and his wife to conservatism when I was on in the 90’s.  We had almost fifteen minutes of substantive conversation about the Reagan Project, Article V, and the BBA campaign.  I thought it went very well.  But I don’t really know.  If he invites me back is how I’ll know.  Anyway, the point is that I can’t count on talk radio.  It may be too complicated to spring this whole thing all at once on people.

The first thing I’ll do, once we’re set up in about a month, is do an op-ed.  I’ve got some ideas about how to get it noticed.

The other obvious angle is getting donations.  People won’t give us money if we’re hiding in the shadows.  We not only need to do things, we need to be seen doing things.  So once we’re over this hump in Wyoming I’m backing off from this whole lobbying business.  I don’t think I’m really suited to it.  I don’t have a bad attitude or anything, but I think I may arouse some resentment.  It’s hard to explain, just a vibe.  Kind of like, who the f— are you?  Like I say, it’s not my line of work.

It’ll be snowing in Denver tomorrow.  This trip could be a bitch.

Here’s a good column in Right Wing News about scams on the right:

50 Million Down The Tubes: How 17 Conservative PACs Are Spending Their Money

The worst scam by far is the Draft Ben Carson for President outfit.  They’ve raised over $12 million and spent $500,000 on actually promoting his candidacy  — around 4%.  Then there’s the Madison Project.  What the hell is the Madison Project?  Former Olympic runner and Congressman Jim Ryun fronts for it.  What they have to do with the fourth President is beyond me.  What have they accomplished?  Who knows?  They publish articles on their web site.  They’ll probably be at CPAC in D.C. this week.  Doing what?  Promoting themselves and trying to raise money.  They’ve taken in over $5million, and spent $300,000 of it donating to candidates or spending money on behalf of candidates.  They look like they’ve got a paid staff of four people.  They’re probably all at CPAC, staying in a fancy hotel and schmoozing.  To what end?

Our principal “competitor” is the Convention of States (CoS).  They’ve raised at least two or three million dollars.  They’ve got three states  — low hanging fruit in Georgia, Alaska, and Florida.  They may pick up North Dakota and some other easy states this year.  Let’s say they’re wildly successful and get five, bringing their total to eight.  So they’re spending about $300,000 per victory.

The BBA Task Force has spent, in its entire existence, around $450,000, the vast majority coming from the personal funds of Dave and Susie Biddulph.  So far it’s won in nine states* and is on track to get six more** this year.  That’s $30,000 per victory.

And we’re, essentially, broke.  The Biddulphs continue to fork over money, but they just don’t have the capacity to keep it up.

Le Uhler’s trying to raise money.  His National Tax Limitation Committee has paid for a lot of the activities of the Reagan Project, including the pledge campaign (which yielded us sponsors in Wyoming and Montana) and my recent travel.

So we’re going to try to raise money at the Reagan Project.  In a month or so we should be up and running.  We’ll be too late to have much impact this legislative season.  But the hardest part will be next year, and it could get expensive.  Soros and his crowd are on to us, and were instrumental in beating us in Montana.  As we get closer to 34 we can expect our opposition to start taking us seriously, and fighting back.

I hate raising money, and was never any good at it.  I was outspent two to one when I first ran for the State Senate in Alaska, and was outspent in pretty much every political battle I got into up there.

But sometimes you’ve just got to do what you’ve got to do.

*FL, AL, NH, OH, GA, TN, LA, MI, SD

**ND, WY, UT, WI, WV, SC

According to sponsor Senator Larry Grooms, via John Steinberger, Kasich knocked it out of the park in South Carolina.  A home run.  Smooth sailing in the Palmetto State from here on.  Way to go, John Kasich.  The South Carolina legislature is hard to understand, at least for me.  So this is very gratifying.

He helped in West Virginia as well.  There will be no problem in the House (thank you, Delegate John Overington), and with Ohio being a next door neighbor, Kasich and his people should be able to shepherd it through the Senate, with a lot of help from Scott Rogers, a resident.  I’m counting on Senate President Bill Cole  — a politician’s politician.  (That’s a compliment.)

Let’s hope Dr. Coburn does as well when he speaks to the House and Senate Caucuses in Oklahoma City on Monday.  It’s a tougher sell.  Fruth says Oklahoma is where Birchers are born.  If anybody can do it Coburn can.

Wyoming Senator Larry Hicks has given us some idea of what Senate President Nicholas is concerned about.  Fruth has arranged to talk to him Sunday afternoon.  He’s worried about Congressional control, and the sanctity of one state one vote.  We should be able to satisfy him on both counts.  If we lose Wyoming it’s pretty much game over.  I’ll testify Monday afternoon.  Hopefully he won’t need any convincing by then.  All indications are that we have the votes on the floor.  Rules won’t meet until 3:00 at the earliest, so I’ll have Bill McIlvain guide me around the Capitol all day, trying to talk to Senators, particularly Senator Hicks, who’s carrying the bill.  Majority Leader Eli Bebout is helping as well.

Wyoming is scary.  After getting our ass kicked in Montana, a loss in Wyoming would be devastating, and not just on morale.  If we lose it, we need to sweep all eight of our remaining targets, plus pick up Virginia in 2016  — a very tough nut to crack.  Cutting spending in D.C. is not so popular in northern Virginia.

We can lose everywhere else, and come back again next year.  To do that in Wyoming would require a 2/3 vote in each House.  It’s possible, of course.  We won 44-16 in the House.  But getting 20 of 26 Republican Senators could be a hill too high.  We don’t want to go there.

When I heard the vote In Montana it was like a whack upside the head.  I’m over it.  At least I made a friend.  Matthew Monforton and his family will get together with me and mine in Bozeman this summer.  We’ll have a lot to talk about.  I think Matthew’s got a future in politics.  If he wants it.

All in all I’ve got nothing to complain about.  Life is good.

As long as we get Wyoming.