Expect the worst

Hope for the best. The vote in the Wyoming Senate will be a few hours from now, and it’s too close to call.  The Gun Owners of America are fighting us, and may be having an effect.  These people are crazy.  The way they raise their money is by claiming the NRA is weak on the Second Amendment.  When we were fighting for concealed carry in Alaska our problem was Commissioner of Public Safety Brian Porter.  He was the former police chief of Anchorage, and a friend.  These whack jobs came on my radio show and started making threats against him.  I shut them up, quick, and we got our bill.  Like I said, they’re crazy.

When I was in college I got sucker punched, square in the nose, by a very strong guy.  I remember what it felt like.  That’s what a loss in Wyoming would feel like.

I didn’t go down.

Education

I think Wyoming Senate Majority Leader Eli Bebout gets Article V.  That federalism, the division of power between the states and the federal government, with the states supreme, has been under attack for 100 years.  And that Article V is the means provided to us by the Framers to defend and reassert federalism.

While we were waiting for the Rules Committee to convene, a college intern, assigned by Bebout to research Article V, told me he was amazed at what he’d found.  He’d read some of Natelson’s stuff, and realized that Article V was the keystone of the Constitution.  This was what he reported to Bebout.

I got a chance to chat a bit with Eli.  We’re of an age.  A smart guy, and a patriot,

I’m glad he’s on our side.

Leadership

I think Senate President Phil Nicholas looks at an Amendment Convention as an opportunity to exercise some on behalf of Wyoming.  As he explained in the Rules Committee, Wyoming is uniquely vulnerable in any “Grand Bargain”  to balance the budget.  It is heavily reliant on a mineral royalty arrangement it has with the federal government.  Most big mines in Wyoming are on federal land, and Wyoming is not entitled to share in royalties.  It gets some through some federal law or program which would be on the chopping block in a budget deal.

It’s generally understood in the Capitol that Nicholas is the sharpest knife in their drawer.  He would lead any delegation to an Amendment Convention, and with one vote of 50 would have as much power as anyone.  He could form an alliance with Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Alaska. I happen to know the Republican leadership in all of them, excepting Idaho.  Nicholas is as bright, or brighter, than any of them. With almost 20% of the votes needed to form a majority of 26, this alliance could play a key role in the organization and functioning of the Convention.  As a leader of this group, if not of an even larger one, he could ensure that whatever Amendment comes out of the Convention would protect Wyoming to the greatest extent possible.

This is why I think Nicholas will help us.  With three out of 535, Wyoming is more vulnerable in Congress than it would be in an Amendment Convention.  The Grim Reaper of budget cuts is coming, and he could save Wyoming’s bacon.  A challenge, and, politically, the opportunity of a lifetime.

I actually kind of like Nicholas.  He reminds me a little bit of me.  What people call his arrogance is just impatience with the slow witted.  You get tired of having to explain everything to people, and get short with them.  This might be an issue if he runs statewide.  It won’t hurt him at the Convention.

To be a leader there you not only have to be smart, you have to be seen as smart.

The greatest leader I personally knew was Gov. Jay Hammond of Alaska.  In 1978 he won the nomination of the Republican Party, and, effectively a second term, by 97 votes over a divided field.  I was Chairman of Hands for Hammond, a volunteer group, and I figured that without the contribution I made he would have lost.  Of course, there were about 100 other people who could make the same claim.

They finished the pipeline during his term, and wealth began to flow into Juneau  in astonishing amounts.  The Legislature was determined to piss away every last dime, but they met their match with Jay Hammond.  He clubbed the legislature like a dog, and they gave him 25% of the money, constitutionally.  It’s up to $50 billion now.  It’s like every Alaskan is born with an $80,000 savings account.

Jay was a preacher’s son from New England who flew Marine fighters in WW II.  He came to Alaska after the war, became a bush pilot, and married Bella, the prettiest Eskimo girl in the state.  This was a man’s man.

As I look back at a lifetime in politics, I really don’t have a lot to show for it.

But Jay Hammond was a friend of mine.

Bandwagons and Talk Radio

We need to build upon, and exploit, our imminent victories in Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota and West Virginia.  After the South Dakota win Hal Wick called the Mark Levin Show to announce the news.  He was able to explain to the call screener who he was, and what he’d done.  But Levin was off on some rant about ISIS and never put Hal on the air.  But Hal planted the seed, and when we get our 26th state the call screener will remember Hal’s call about #25.  I’m betting the screener is smart enough to realize this is something the audience, and the host, would find interesting, and encourage Levin to take the call.

Levin is bright enough, but he lacks judgment, as evidenced by his embrace of the CoS model.  He’ll resist climbing down from that horse, but it will happen.  He’s not a fool.  The sooner he gives up on CoS the better.  His audience understands Article V.  If they knew we were closing in on 34 they could be a huge source of grass roots support.

The best person to make these calls is the sponsor, but that may not be possible because of time commitments.  You need to devote three hours, from 4:00 to 7:00 MST, to this call.  If the sponsor can’t do it we need a substitute.  In Wyoming that might be Bill McIlvain, in Utah the head of the College YR’s.  In any event the sponsor needs to find an instate surrogate if they can’t do it themselves.

The exploitation of talk radio should not be limited to Levin.  Anyone who has the time can call Limbaugh, Hannity and the others to trumpet the good news.  Our message of hope can go viral, and should.

But we’ve got to make that happen.

What Utah Means

Idaho, maybe.  The LDS is a dominant force in Utah politics.  It’s nearly as important in Idaho.  We have reason to believe that a number of Idaho LDS co-religionists were watching their brethren in Utah, and will follow their lead.  Idaho has about five weeks left in their session, enough time to ram a bill through if leadership wants it.

If that pans out we’d have a shot at 34 this year.  The Dakotas and three of the four mountain states (ID, UT, WY), when added to Wisconsin, West Virginia, and South Carolina get us to 32.  With our momentum building all of these are realistic.

Oklahoma would be the key.  We got our asses handed to us last year.  It was ugly.  But we’ve got 20% turnover, and the freshmen haven’t been exposed to Birch bullshit for years, so they’re gettable.  Dr. Coburn made his pitch.  It’s a tough state, but not as tough as Montana, with 40% Democrats and a Democrat Governor.  So you can lose a fair number of Republicans (as just happened in Utah) and still win.

Then to Arizona, our 34th state, and a reckoning with one Andy Biggs.  I’m not underestimating the man.

But he stands alone.