Author: Fritz Pettyjohn

Demographers and other charlatans are constantly telling us that the Republican Party is headed to extinction because it’s the party of whites, and the Democrats are the party of the soon-to-be-majority everyone else.  Blacks, Latinos, Asians and other ethnic minorities will vote as blocs against the “white party.”  Disaffected single white women and young whites, along with a rag tag of special interest groups, get the Democrats to a majority.  There is nothing that can be done about any of this.  Because it’s demography, stupid.

But we’re not there yet, quite.  It will definitely happen in 2020, though, or 2024 for sure.

I find this kind of thinking odd.  We’re only a couple months from the Iowa caucuses, and no one really has any idea of how they’ll turn out.  But these  wizards can confidently predict our political future decades in advance.

When I was a kid in the 60’s everybody thought blacks were on their way to being a majority in this country.  You looked at the difference between black and white birth rates, did the math, and voila!, you can see a black America just ahead.  It’s demographics, don’t you know.

As I look around, 50 years later, blacks are the same percentage of the American population as they were then.  The pill, abortion, welfare reform, immigration and an evolution in attitude among upwardly mobile black women changed everything.  The demographers never saw it coming.  They never do, because they never think ahead.  It’s not scientific, so it’s not worth doing.

But politics is all about looking ahead, and if you’re any good at it you can see things coming.  As I wrote today in American Thinker, I look ahead to a tidal wave election next year, one that, in some ways, will be bigger than 1920.  If that does occur, you can throw your demography out the window, because we’re in a brand new ball game.  The Republicans, with the assistance of the Article V movement, will be able to make the fundamental reforms that are necessary to save us from ruin.

They will not only hold the House, they’ll pick up a few seats.  In the Senate they could expand on their majority to something close to cloture.  The new President, riding a wave of public support, proposes, and Congress passes, a series of bills that will have more impact than the first 100 days of the New Deal.

Entitlements are reformed, the budget is slowly brought into balance, regulations are slashed, entrepeneurship is encouraged at all levels of government, public lands are opened for development, the border is sealed, entire Departments of the federal government are eliminated, and an economic boom takes off that could surpass the Roaring 20’s.

And you’re telling me that demographics will, in the face of all or part of the above, put the Democrats back in power?  Because they’re for more immigration?

Oh, but I’m a bit ambitious, you say.  But this is what all, or virtually all, of the Republicans running for President are pledged to do.  They’ll have a mandate, and a Congress, to get it done.

Why the hell wouldn’t it happen?

Unchecked, demographics could doom the “white party” Republicans, but as even the most sanguine of Democrats will admit, we’re not quite there yet.  In fact, if the working class whites of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin turn out in 2016, the way they did not in 2012, the Republican can break the blue electoral wall and cruise to victory.

One reason they might is because of white racial consciousness.  This is a very taboo subject.  Brave men fear to utter the phrase.  Normally level headed guys like Ben Domenech at the Federalist get their knickers all twisted just thinking about it.

But it’s a reality in the South, and it’s moving north.  Kentucky is the latest indication.  Since Obama seems determined to drive the last white working man out of the Democratic Party, I predict it moves from southern Ohio north, into the Great Lakes and beyond.

It’s not a long term solution.  But for the Republicans, it’s enough to get them through 2016.

After that, it’s up to them.

 

Stanley Greenberg’s got a book out  — America Ascendant  — that will be closely read by the thinking left.  Stan’s been there for Clinton, Gore and Kerry, and he’s back chock full of advice for Hillary.

Don’t run for a third Obama term, he says.  Check.  Have bold policy proposals.   Check.  But wait.  The Democrats haven’t had such an idea in a generation.  So I go to Amazon to check out the opening of the book.  Stanley may be on to something.  This guy’s been around for as long as I have, except he’s operated at the very highest levels of Democratic politics.  He’s networked, wired and in the know.

It turns out his models of successful governance are California (which, he assures us, is the very best state for business)  and New York City.  I’m starting to breathe easier.  Stanley is delusional.  And then he sums it up  — “Democrats will have to make the case for governmental activism at the national level.”

That’s it.  More government.  Stan’s off his rocker, but he’s also right.  If the Democrats are unable to make the case for governmental activism they have no case to make.  They are the party of, by, and for the government.

This is not a winning message in 2016.  It’s a recipe for disaster.  But it’s the only one they’ve got.  They have one tool, one idea, one prescription: government.

O. K., I’m a libertarian, and I’m in the minority in the extent to which I despise government.  But my God we’ve just had a big heaping pile of government called Obamacare.  How’s that working out?  Do we really want another helping?

I keep reading about Obamacare is facing more and more serious difficulties.  Some very bad things could happen in 2016.  Pretty much what guys like Avik Roy and James Capretta have been saying for the last two and a half years, at least.  They’ve been on the money up til now, as far as I can tell.  Every time this story intrudes onto the campaign it hurts Hillary and every Democrat.  It’s the gift that keeps on giving.

Black Lives Matter is going to college, and allying itself with a bunch of affirmative action crybabies.  What a spectacle.  There are a lot of good decent black Americans, and they have got to be appalled by all this.  They need to speak up.  In the mean time, BLM is more or less an official affiliate of the Democratic Party.  That will bring home those working class whites!  That’s the ticket!

Trump’s not getting the nomination, but I think he’s still doing the party a service.  He’s bringing attention to the whole process, and he’s pushing the party to the right on immigration.  These are good things.

The thing about the Donald is, someone is going to beat him, most probably Rubio or Cruz.  And whoever does is going to be a hero to everybody else in the party.  He saved us from Trump!  Either one of the Cubans will have a united party behind them.  So, in that sense, the longer the Donald sticks around, the better.

And then there’s Obama, Barack the Indifferent.  He just doesn’t care any more, and he doesn’t mind showing it.  And Hillary’s packing his baggage  all the way to next November.

This is all just too good.  Go away, black swan.

I’ve seen trouble all of my days, and the latest is in Idaho, with Senate Majority Leader Bart Davis (B,  — for Birch — Idaho Falls).

I saw him on the floor in Boise back in April, and learned a few things.  He’s a big, affable guy, and apparently well liked by his colleagues.  And as we’ve been told, he’s the go to guy in the Idaho State Senate when it comes to constitutional questions  — such as Article V.  As a member of the leadership he can see that our Resolution is referred to State Affairs, where he has an outsize voice.  We haven’t found anyone in the Senate to take him on.  He believes strongly in his Birch fantasies, and will not be moved.  I imagine he can be a little intimidating.

Bill Fruth will be flying to Idaho to meet with as many State Senators as he can, looking for an opening, a way around, over or through Davis.  It won’t be easy.  We have to face the fact that we may not get Idaho next year, in which case we’re looking at 2017 to get to 34.

When I was young and ignorant, a couple years ago, I thought the Article V BBA campaign would get to 34 in 2016, and be a major boost to the Republican ticket.  That could still happen, but only if the BBA Task Force gets a massive amount of help, and gets it soon.  We can’t plan on it.  Until the nomination fight is over (April?  May?) all eyes are on it, and we can’t expect some well heeled donor to discover our cause and fund us.  So we need to start thinking about 2017.  Now.

That’s because the filing deadlines for target legislatures are coming up.  I don’t have the exact dates, but based on the deadlines from 2014 the last day to file for the legislature is:

Kentucky — January 28th

Idaho — March 3rd

Montana  — March 10th

Once these dates pass we need to contact candidates with a chance of winning and explain Article V to them.  Very few will have heard of it before.  It’s not that hard to explain.  And the sooner you contact them, the more receptive they’ll be.  Hell, I remember when I first filed for the legislature in 1982.  If someone from outside had called me up, right after I’d filed, and talked to me about a national issue that I would be addressing if I won, I would have been flattered.  The key is to do it right after they file, when they’re in the planning stage of a campaign.  If we had some money, we could make a modest contribution — $250 is a lot of money to these guys  — to get them to remember us.

These are not big shot politicians.  They’re just regular people with an interest in politics and a willingness to serve.  Unless they’ve been previously infected with the Birch virus, we should get every one of them.

Depending on what else is going on, this is a project I’m assigning myself.  I like these people.  I was one of them, a long time ago.  I might enjoy it.

I’ll be calling Rep.DeCesare in Kentucky next week.  If there’s not a coup that tosses Speaker Stumbo, we still want to pass our Resolution in the Senate, to put pressure on Stumbo, and create a campaign issue in the legislative races next year.  We’re going to try to do this in all the split states where we haven’t passed  — Maine, Minnesota and Washington.  Biddulph is working on Minnesota with Speaker Daudt.  Senate President Pam Roach of Washington has told me it’s not going to  be possible there, but I can double check with her.

So it looks like  I was too optimistic when I thought we’d get there next year.  But I think I’ve got a better feel for this Presidential race than I had for our prospects in various state legislatures.  And the coming Republican landslide is what will put us over the top, not vice versa.

Kentucky will be solidly red, I have no doubt of that.  One more target state.  After the blowout of 2010, Washington, Maine and Minnesota were solid Republican state legislatures.  2016 will be a Presidential year, and bigger than 2010, so we can get them back.  More target states.

And in target states like Arizona, Idaho and Montana the wave should give the Republican majorities a lot of new members.  And new members, we’ve found, are far less likely to have been brainwashed by the Birchers than the old fossils they’re replacing.  And our margin for error will increase.  The more Republicans, the more you can afford to lose, and still have a majority.

This can be done, and will be done.  I’ll see you on that golden shore.

Since I’m so cock sure about a Republican landslide a year from now (barring black swans), I’m always on the prowl for contrary indicators.  I read a lot of articles by lefties, and try to see things from their perspective.  I regularly consult 538 Nate  for the views of the nation’s premiere number cruncher.  I read everything that lefty gurus like Stan Greenberg have to say.   They’re all counting on demographics, the politics of the simple minded.

And income inequality.  If they have an issue, this is the big one.  The economic wizard they principally rely on is Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.  Back in April he issued his manifesto, “The Rules of the American Economy” in conjunction with the Roosevelt Institute.  It’s just been released in book form, “Rewriting the Rules.”

I read the manifesto upon which the book is based, and am decidedly unimpressed.  He wants more money spent on infrastructure.  Yawn.  No word on whether these projects will be shovel ready, or where the money comes from.

He wants to help the unions organize.  That’s some real 21st Century avant garde thinking.  It’s 2016, and everybody wants to join a union!  Good God.

He wants selective minimum wage increases.  That’s the ticket!  The key to middle class economic anxiety is assuring them that when they’re at last reduced to working at McDonald’s, they’ll be getting enough for a single young adult to squeeze by on.  We all feel so much better now.

He wants education!  This is a truly amazing insight.  No one has ever thought of this before.  He’s liable to get another Nobel Prize for that one.

And he wants paid family and sick leave.  If that doesn’t get the country fired up I don’t know what will.

That’s it.  That’s all he, and they, have got.  And it’s pathetic.  Oh wait, I forgot, there’s one not on Stiglitz’s list  — Hillary is going to take on Wall Street!   She’s a social justice warrior, fighting for all those little people out there.  If you want to know why people don’t trust Hillary, it’s because they know such talk on her part is complete B.S.  Nobody  believes her.

Another one Stiglitz didn’t mention was climate change.  This is a donor issue, not one most people really care about, and won’t, until there is an economic recovery, if ever.  But the donors insist, and it will be an issue with no real constituency.

Actually, there is an issue of economic inequality which should be a campaign issue.  It’s generational income inequality, as described recently in Fortune.  And it’s getting worse.  In 2000 oldsters (65-74) had $48,000 in family income.  In 2012 they had $58,000.

In 2000 youngsters (25-34) had $62,000 in income.  In 2012 they had $53, 000.

Old people in this country are doing just fine, and young people are getting screwed.  Think Social Security.

These numbers are a surprise, to me, and have political significance.  The political class, Republican and Democrat, have delivered for the old people of this country, and the young are paying the price.  It may simply be that old people are more effective politically, or are working more.  But it is a very unhealthy trend, and one which serious public policy experts should put their minds to.

I ain’t one of those, but I’ll give it some thought myself.  From the political side.

I like this guy Jeff Bezos.  He’s a gazillionaire who doesn’t believe in charity.  Instead he’s using his money to make more money, but in unusual and socially constructive ways.  He’s going into space tourism.   It’s like back in the day when airplanes were brand new, and people were trying to figure out how to make money with them.  So they’d go to county fairs and charge people for joy rides.  That’s Bezos’ idea, in a nutshell.

His company just landed a rocket for reuse, using reverse thrust.  How cool is that.  I was a science fiction nut when I was a kid, and this is the kind of thing we were all dreaming about.

What a brave new world we live in.

We’ve gone through three political cycles in the last century, and are about to embark on a fourth.

The first began in 1920, as a reaction to Wilson’s progressivism.  The eight years of Harding/Coolidge were a time of peace and prosperity.  Then came the unworthy successor, Hoover, who cocked everything up and gave us 20 years of the New Deal.

The second cycle started in 1952 with Eisenhower.  Again, eight years of peace and prosperity.  The unworthy successor, Nixon, lost to Kennedy in 1960, and the next 20 years were politically unstable, featuring four consecutive failed Presidencies  — LBJ, Nixon, Ford and Carter.  This was an era of a vast expansion of federal power, under both Republicans and Democrats.

The third cycle began in 1980 with Reagan.  Once more, eight years of peace and prosperity, followed by an unworthy successor, Bush 1, followed by three consecutive failed Presidencies, Clinton, Bush 2, and Obama.  Once again, a vast expansion of federal power under the Republican and the Democrats.

The fourth cycle begins next year, with the election of a Republican in a landslide.  We’ll have eight years to put things right.

While Harding/Coolidge, Eisenhower and Reagan all succeeded, none reversed the continuing concentration of power in the federal government.  Harding/Coolidge left the 16th and 17th Amendments in place, Eisenhower made peace with the New Deal, and Reagan was forced to accept the Great Society.  This coming cycle, riding a hundred year tide, promises more.  If the states are able to exercise their power under Article V, we can permanently transform the political landscape.  It is possible to return to the Constitution,  and our liberty.

I compare 1920 to today in a piece I submitted to American Thinker.  Editor Thomas Lifson likes it, and will post it when he thinks it will get the most exposure.  I’ll do the link.

There is a time for every season under heaven, and every purpose..

Our time is now.