Author: Fritz Pettyjohn

Webster’s:  “To discriminate is to separate like things one from another in comprehension or use by discerning minute differences.”

Armenians and Chechens are distinct ethnic groups from the Caucasus.  Looking at them, they’re similar.  But the differences between them are far from minute.  As distinct from Armenians, Chechens are among the most violent people on earth.  They’re raised that way, and they like the way they are.  The Boston Marathon bomber was a Chechen, and he acted like one.

Pashtuns are from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region, and rival the Chechens in their ferocity.  They’ve been this way since forever, and they don’t intend to change.  From all accounts, the Orlando killer was a proud Pashtun, just like his immigrant father.

Because we don’t discriminate against Chechens or Pashtuns, we allow them to immigrate to this country.  It cost us in Boston, and it just cost us 53 lives in Orlando.  Because we refuse to discriminate, we die.

This is why Trump could get elected.  People have had it with being patsies.  Some whack job from Chechnya or Pashtun claims he’s a refugee, so we bring them to our country, where their sons kill us.  And Obama gets on the tube and says we have to be nicer to LGBT people.  No wonder people vote for Trump.

Trump’s a charlatan and a liar, but he’s also an unabashed patriot.  To a lot of people, that makes up for a lot.  Almost a year ago there was a lot of chatter about authenticity in the presidential candidates  —  who had it, and who didn’t.  Trump comes across as authentic, even if he’s not.  And he is authentically patriotic, which is more than you can say for the internationalist, U.N.-loving, cosmopolitan Clinton.  She’s a sophisticated woman of the world, who believes, along with her husband, in one world government.  So advantage Trump.

I saw Jeff Sessions on the tube and he said we have to vote for Trump or we’ll lose the Heller decision, and the Second Amendment.  But Sessions doesn’t know who Trump would appoint to the Supreme Court.  Nobody knows,  not even Trump.

Trust Trump?  Forget it.

The first thing I thought when I heard about the shooting in a gay bar was that it wouldn’t happen in a cowboy bar.  But it turns out you can’t carry concealed in any bar in Florida.  Safety, don’t you know.  There are a whole lot of concealed carry permit holders in Florida, and I’m sure some of them are gay.  If one of them had had his weapon, and knew how to use it, he could have saved dozens of lives.  Isn’t it a little odd that these slaughters occur in “safe zones”, like college campuses, and black churches, and public schools, where weapons are prohibited?  Actually, no, it’s not.  You’ve never seen a shooting at an NRA meeting, and you never will.  There is no safety in disarmament, only danger.

We have a right not only to keep, but to bear arms.  There’s a reason the word “bear” is in the Second Amendment.  It means carry, as in carry concealed.  I  carry all the time, and to hell with the law.  I have a constitutional right that supersedes any law.  I’m 70, with a lot of white hair  — a polar bear, according to some inner city blacks, a target for sucker punching.  Except I’ve got an ankle holster and a .38.  I try to avoid some black parts of Oakland, as does every sane white person.  I’m not Charles Bronson.  But self protection is the only thing between me and harm to me and mine.  And if I am not for myself, who will be for me?

Orlando was not a black swan.  The odds were in the terrorists’ favor.  They only have to get it right once, and there are a lot of them.  I can’t help  but feel this is going to keep happening.  If Trump were a normal Republican it would be enough to elect him.  But he’s a bullshit artist, a con man, and it’s going to catch up to him.

I haven’t checked out Johnson’s position on the Second Amendment, but he’s from the Far West, and a libertarian, so I’m sure he’s solid.  But he needs to rethink his position on immigration.

Soon.

 

Trump’s next gambit may be a trip to Moscow for a man to man chat with Putin.  Two tough guys, taking each other’s measure, but ready to make a deal.  Paul Manafort can set it all up.  He helped Putin puppet Viktor Yanukovych win the Presidency of the Ukraine back in 2010.  Yanukovych was later chased out of the Ukraine, and has supposedly taken Russian citizenship.  I’ll wager Manafort stays in touch with him, and he’s got a direct line to Putin.  In other words, Trump has a back channel to Putin.

But maybe a visit wouldn’t be such a good idea.  Putin may make a move on Ukraine this summer, and Trump doesn’t want to be seen endorsing that.  Trump will oppose the use of American force to stop it, as will Johnson, I expect.  This puts Obama, and Clinton, in a very tough spot, and they’ll have no real choice but to back down.  This country won’t go to war for the Ukraine, or anybody else, for that matter (with certain exceptions).

Later this year the 40 foot high statue of Saint Vladimir should be completed, located right next to the Kremlin.  He brought Christianity to Russia a thousand years ago, and Putin reveres him, as he does the Russian Orthodox Church.  Putin wants Russia to be a Christian nation.  This is another reason we won’t go to war with Russia.  We’re a Christian nation, and we are at war with radical Islam.  Russia can be an ally in that war.  It’s more important than the Ukraine, or the Baltics, for that matter.  The American people understand that.

All this helps Trump.  He’ll be disqualified if Clinton and the Hive have their way.  But if he’s not destroyed, it seems to me that foreign policy crises, or terrorist incidents, help him.

It’s possible all this could redound to Johnson’s benefit.  This is all idle speculation, but it’s all I’ve got.  Johnson wants the Clinton and media attacks on Trump to succeed.  He wants Trump so beaten up and discredited that he, Johnson, is the only viable alternative to the Harridan.

Tuesday is the South Carolina legislative primary, and 84 year old Hugh Leatherman has a serious challenger.  I’m hoping for an upset, but old Hugh still knows how to win votes.  As long as he’s in the Senate, his district will get more than its share of state money.  Hugh has delivered on that for over 30 years, and it’s a poor district.

So we’ll probably have to deal with Leatherman again next year.  Why in the name of God his Senate Republican colleagues surrender so much of their power to this guy amazes me.  But they do, and he rules the Senate, and the legislature, with an iron fist.  We have to find a way to get to Leatherman.  I have a hunch it can be done, but it will need to be a pretty big carrot.  South Carolina, Virginia and Montana will be our toughest states.  I think we have to raise some money in order to get them.

There are, presumably, some big Republican donors who are not going to give to Trump.  If just one of them was smart enough to understand the opportunity represented by the Article V BBA, we’d have enough to do it.  But most of these donors are interested in access, or in the prestige of being associated with a Presidential candidate.  Little things like the Constitution aren’t that sexy.

1968 was a crazy political year, just nuts.  2016 has the same feel.

When you think about it, the term “libertarian” makes more sense than liberal or conservative.  And Ted Cruz is almost a libertarian, in my book.  How do “social conservatives” such as Cruz differ from libertarians, politically?   Both Cruz and Johnson believe in overturning Roe v. Wade, and returning control over abortion laws to the States.  I believe both Cruz and Johnson believe that state legislatures, not federal courts, should make the laws of marriage within their states.  I don’t think Cruz is all hot and bothered that some states are legalizing marijuana.  It’s a state decision.

They disagree about what should happen at the state level.  But at the federal, Presidential level, they basically agree:  hands off, none of our business.  Cruz had some success appealing to the libertarian vote once Paul dropped out.  I’m Exhibit “A”, myself.  He understands that he is naturally allied with the libertarian wing of the Republican Party.  He’s an ardent federalist, and federalism is a libertarian concept, beloved of the Framers.

Cruz was a little dodgy on foreign policy, but he rejects neoconservatism and foreign adventurism and nation building.  And once he really thinks it through, he’ll understand that the people of this country will absolutely refuse to send soldiers to Europe to fight the Russians.  That will not happen, and NATO is dead, and Cruz needs to come to grips with it.

And since Cruz and Johnson basically agree on fiscal and regulatory restraint, and federalism, and the Transfer of Public Lands, why don’t have a little chat?  Off the record, of course, and just between friends.  The thing is, Cruz can’t say it, but he can’t stand Trump, and believes he’ll destroy the Republican Party.  When Trump gratuitously called his father an accomplice to the Kennedy assassination he pissed Ted Cruz off for life.   It’s personal.

And what, exactly, does Ted Cruz owe the Republican Party?  They fought him when he ran for the Senate four years ago, they fought him every day in Washington, and they set the nomination process up in a way to make it hard for him.  Sure, he wants the nomination in four years, but he owes the GOP nothing.  They did everything they could to stop him.  And like any sane American, he worries about this country for the next four years.  Things may get really bad if we don’t change, soon.

Ted Cruz should do what he can for Johnson, behind the scenes.  Or maybe, down the road a bit, even in the open.  No one has any idea of how things will play out for the next five months.  Everything seems in flux.  Things that once seemed outlandish may become possible.

Bill Fruth has been working on the Assembly of State Legislatures meeting for the last few weeks, and it should go well.  The set of Proposed Rules they’re working on will be helpful next year as we push for 34.  Tom Llewellyn continues to work on getting the Article V BBA into the Platform at Cleveland.  And Loren Enns has apparently left Florida and will be hanging out in the Far West, promoting the BBA Resolution in Arizona, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.  Fruth thinks with $100,000 of media we could get Montana, and I think he’s right.  Maybe this is the year we raise some money.

The last twelve months have been amazing, from an historical political perspective.  The next twelve might be more of the same.  I guess I’d rather live in interesting times than not.

Long ago, in a political universe far, far away, personal likability was thought to be important in Presidential politics.  It was believed that, since we’re stuck with a President for at least four years, and they come into our homes constantly via the TV, we want to vote for a person we’re personally comfortable with.  Supposedly, the only time the less likable candidate won in the TV age was 1968.  Reagan was successful, in part, because he was likable.  Bush 2 was more likable than Gore and Kerry, etc., etc.

Who likes Hillary Clinton?  Who wants to hear that screeching voice?  Who wants to be hectored like a beat down husband?  My God, the woman screams unlikability.  And a new Fox poll shows 65% of Independents think she’s lying about her emails.  Who wants to spends time with a lying shrew?

I guess some people would like to have a beer with Donald Trump.  I call people like that jock sniffers.  They admire celebrities like jocks, actors, anybody rich and famous.  I can only speak for myself, and all the guys I know like me.  He’s an obnoxious coxcomb, and a complete jerk, madly in love with himself.  No thanks.

Gary Johnson is probably a guy I’d love to knock a few down with.  He’s originally from Minot, North Dakota, where his dad was a school teacher.  His father had been adopted by Scandinavian-American parents, while his mother was of Ukrainian immigrant stock.  The family moved to Albuquerque where Johnson ran track in high school, and went on to work his way through the University of New Mexico.  A year after graduating he started his own business, which turned into one of the largest construction companies in New Mexico.  When he was 40 he took on the Republican establishment, and with half a million of his own money won the nomination, and went on to beat an incumbent Democratic Governor.  After two eminently successful terms he took some time off to climb Mt. Everest, and is one of these fitness nuts.

He’s 62 now, divorced, and making his second run for President as a Libertarian.  I’m going to make a leap of faith and assume he’s serious.  He should be.  This is the craziest year in American politics in my lifetime, and anything can happen.  Right now Fox has it at Clinton 39, Trump 36, and Johnson 12.  We’ve got five months coming of Clinton and Trump hammering each other, and doing it effectively.  But there is always danger in a political attack.  It can hurt both the attacked, and the attacker.  Johnson can stay serenely above the fray.  I’ll be surprised if he can’t get in to the debates.  I think people will feel as though he should be given a shot.  And anything’s better than having to spend a whole debate looking at Trump and Clinton.  And once he’s in the debates, anything can happen.  I have a strong suspicion that Johnson is smarter than both Trump and Clinton, and would use that to his advantage.  I can dream.

Minot, North Dakota and Albuquerque, New Mexico are on the very eastern edge of the Far West, which does not include the easternmost parts of the Dakotas, Colorado and New Mexico.  So Johnson is  a man of the Far West, from birth.  It’s no coincidence he turned to libertarianism, because this is the most libertarian part of the country, by far.  It’s in the culture.  If a cowboy’s not a libertarian, who is?   And as a former Governor of New Mexico, he knows all about the big absentee landlords in D.C., the BLM and the National Forest Service, and he’d like to be rid of them.  He gets the Transfer of Public Lands issue.  He doesn’t need to learn it.

This is the issue that wins him electoral votes, and possibly throws the election into the House.  If that happened, you would see the most important game of cutthroat in American history.  Last time it happened, in 1824, we had the Corrupt Bargain.  But, of course, back then politicians were corrupt, so nothing like that could happen now.  Our political class, represented in this case by the 435 members of the House to be elected in November, will be making the decision, and we can all have complete confidence in them.

Every state gets a vote, just as the Constitution intended, and it takes 26 states to win.  Alaska and Wyoming have as much say as California and New York.  The majority of each state’s delegation decides who to vote for.  No one is bound to do anything.

This is why the Far West should vote for Johnson.  Throw the election into the House, where a block of ten or twelve Far Western States could get whatever they wanted.

Including their land.

 

 

Cutthroat is always fun to play.  There’s usually one weak player, and his only hope is to stay out of the way, and let the two stronger competitors beat each other up.  Then he steps in and delivers the knockout to whoever’s left standing.

In the Presidential game of cutthroat, nobody’s going to beat up Gary Johnson.  He’s not worth it.  The 10% or so he’s got seems drawn equally from right and left, so he’s no particular threat to either one.  But for the next five months we’re going to drown in   mud.  Clinton and Trump hate each other, and 2/3 of the country hates them.  I don’t think issues of substance are what will drive this campaign.  It’s attack, counter-attack, trench warfare of the ugliest kind.

And then there’s Mr. Sunshine, Gary Johnson, always with a smile on his face, talking about the great future in store for our country, once we’ve unshackled ourselves from government.  It’s a great spot to be in politically.  He can stay completely above the fray, refusing to wrestle these two pigs.  He can talk substance, about liberty and the Constitution.  It will be quite a contrast.

Bill Clinton is supposed to be a really smart politician.  If he is, he’ll cede the Far West to Johnson.  This is Hillary’s weakest area, and she should completely ignore it.  Let as many of her votes go to Johnson as you can.  Because every electoral vote Johnson wins in the Far West is a vote Trump needs to get to 270.  Make him work for those EV’s, while Clinton is in the battle ground states.  If it’s basically a two man race in the Far West, Johnson has a real shot.  This would be Johnson’s most realistic opportunity to  win EV”s, and he should concentrate his campaign there.

Other possibilities exist.  There may be a blue state that Trump concedes, and in which Johnson has a chance against Clinton if it’s one on one.  Cutthroat can be a fun game.

I’ve always had a hard on for the Libertarian Party.  They cost me my seat in the State Senate.  There was a strong Libertarian running for Governor in ’82, Dick Randolph, and he got enough conservative votes to elect the Democrat, Bill Sheffield, my mortal enemy.  The Alaska Supreme Court, in the most overtly political decision in its history, overturned the ’82 reapportionment plan and allowed Sheffield to redistrict the whole state.  His number one target was me, and he got me.  I stuck around, and got elected to the House, and damn near got Sheffield impeached, the corrupt bastard.

I ran for a third House term in ’88 only  because I thought I could get in the majority and be Speaker.  But we lost a couple House races that we should have won  because of Libertarian candidates siphoning off our votes.  The Libertarian Party of Alaska was always a damn nuisance when I was up there.

But times change, and the times they are a’changin’ right now.  Trump ran me out of the prediction business.  But I have to say it’s hard to imagine a set of circumstances being more favorable to Gary Johnson than we have in 2016.  My God, most people can’t stand his opponents, either one of them.  That’s always a good way to start a game of political cutthroat.

I haven’t been looking forward to the next five months of a really nasty Presidential campaign.  But now, when all I’ll see is mud flying, I’ll take comfort in the fact that Johnson’s not in the middle of it.