Author: Fritz Pettyjohn

Is $20 trillion of debt enough, or do we need more?

Most building is done with debt.  You don’t wait to buy a home until you can pay for it.  You borrow, and buy your home over the course of 30 years.  Without debt, things don’t get built.  The Roman Catholic Church was opposed to debt, or usury as they called it.  So it couldn’t borrow the money needed to build the great cathedrals of Europe.  As a consequence, they took hundreds of years to build.

Trump’s a builder, and he’s going to take on debt to do it.  Interest rates will rise, and we’ll have some inflation.  This is not necessarily a bad thing.  It’s basic Keynsianism.  You borrow and spend when the economy is weak, and you stop borrowing once the economy has returned to full strength.  You count on economic growth to provide the revenue to pay the interest on the debt.

The problem with Keynesian economics is that once they start borrowing, the politicians never stop.  Even when the economy is relatively strong, as it was under Bush 2, they keep on borrowing.  The pressure to spend, especially on popular entitlement programs, is too great.  This is why we still need a Balanced Budget Amendment.  Not to stop Trump from two more years of taking on debt.  It’s to stop him, and his successors, from continuing to borrow, when the borrowing is based on political, not economic, considerations.

State legislators understand all this.  The one thing every Speaker of the House, and every President of the Senate, knows is that they are responsible for passing a budget.  It’s the one thing they have to do, and in almost all cases it has to balance.  They know how it’s supposed to work, and they want Congress to work that way.  And with Article V they can make it happen.

Any day now I may hear the news that Project 2017 is a go.  And if that happens, we’re going to get to 34 this year.

When I started this blog three years ago I did it with the hope that the political tide had turned, and great change was coming.  The rising tide of change would be so strong that it would lift even the heaviest of boats — Article V.  If ever the time was right, this was going to be it.  So I called Lew Uhler, who I hadn’t been in touch with for 30 years, and he brought me in to the BBA Task Force.  I had no idea such a group existed.  I was amazed, actually.  They were working under the assumption that there would be support from Democratic State legislators.  They started working on this about seven years ago, in 2009, when Republicans had complete control over 14 State Legislatures.  They did not believe that Republicans would, over the course of the next four election cycles, pick up 19 more States. They thought, instead, that they’d get help from Democrats.

In this, they were completely misguided.  The Task Force has added 12 States to the 16 that were still valid from the Lew Uhler era.  Every one of them was under complete Republican control.  We never got one bit of help from any Democrat in the country, who mattered.  And we’ll get to 34 without one bit of help from any Democrat.  I hope that’s wrong.  The Democrats need a new identity, and offering a balance to the wild spending of Trump may be a part of the way back for them.

For Article V to happen, it took true believers, like Dave and Suzie Biddulph, and Bill Fruth, and Loren Enns to carry the ball when the cause was, in fact, quixotic.

Well, it’s not quixotic any more.

Harry Enten of 538.com just pointed out that this is the first Presidential election since the 17th Amendment in which no Senator was elected in a State which was won by the other party’s Presidential candidate.  Clinton won New Hampshire, the Senate seat went to the Democrat.  It was the same in all 34 States with Senate elections.

As long as we’re polarized like this, the Republicans will control the Senate.  Right now, at a minimum, I can name 30 red States.  There are something like 15 blue ones.  The other 5 are purple.  Over the course of the next two election cycles, 2018 and 2020, the Senate should see 60 Republicans, a filibuster proof majority.  And they could win some of those purple states, as they have done in the past with  moderates.

If Trump is successful, the Democrats are going to be in  big trouble.

Which gets me to Article V, and the Balanced Budget Amendment.  We should get support from moderate Democrats in States like Kentucky, and we will.  But where we really need some help is in the Minnesota Senate, where Birchers live, and we have a one vote majority.

If you’re a reasonable Democrat, why wouldn’t you be for a BBA?  It’s their country that’s going bankrupt, as much as it is ours.  They know something needs to be done.  Trump won’t balance the budget, he won’t even try.  He’s the King of Debt.  He brags about it.  He’s a builder, above all else, and in order to build you need money, and if you have to borrow to build, you borrow.

Democrats need to understand that until 2020, or 2022, or 2024, there’as going to be a whole lot of spending going on, and they won’t have a thing to say about how it’s spent.  The Republicans will be the ones doing all the spending, and the Democrats will be paying the bills.

Maybe the future of the Democratic Party is to be the party of fiscal restraint?  It worked, twice, for Grover Cleveland, who was the 22nd and the 24th President.  Maybe they ought to give it a try.  What else have they got?

Oh, I forgot, they’ve got demographics.  But the very same Harry Enten, in a good piece at 538.com, finally admits I’ve been right all along.  Demographics aren’t destiny.  Political parties change, constantly, and demographics are just one aspect of the shifting coalitions that political parties are.

The Democrats will come back.  They always do, Republicans as well.  Because we’ve got this two party system so ingrained in our institutions, all people who are in opposition to the party in power will coalesce in the party out of power.  As long as the party in power keeps most people happy, it stays in power.  But only for so long, usually for no more than twenty years.

I actually saw crazy old Art Laffer on Fox Business, and he got all jacked up, and talked about staying in power for 1,000 years.  I’ll settle for a hundred.  The Progressive movement began around 100 years ago, and it will take 100 years to get back to the Constitution.

Maybe the future of the Democratic Party is to be the Washington Generals.  The loser party.  Let that be the epitaph of Bill and Hillary Clinton.  Everybody talks about Obama losing his legacy, and he will.  But he’s doing it with class, and grace.  This will be, he is determined, to be the most seamless transition in power we’ve ever had.

The Clintons, both of them, have been personally humiliated, and exposed as the frauds they’ve always been.  The big money days are over, and they’ll have to pay all those legal bills somehow.  Money’s going to be a problem. The Crime Foundation is kaput, and they’ll be lucky to escape indictment.

They lost it all, just like that.  The Lord is just.

 

A parliamentary system, which separates the duties of Head of State and Head of Government, has its advantages.  The King, or Emperor, or Sultan, or President  — the Head of State  — has largely ceremonial duties, allowing the Prime Minister, or Grand Vizier  — the Head of Government — to do his job full time, which is running the government.  Most countries of the world have parliamentary forms of government.  It may, in fact, be more efficient.

We may be about to find out right here in the USA.  Trump has no interest in actually running the government.  He’s going to be busy as Head of State, traveling around, Making America Great, and having the time of his life.  He’ll spend most of his time in Manhattan or on the road.  The White House will be where he stays when he’s hosting an official function, or is otherwise tied up in Washington.  No one will object, saying that he’s ignoring his constitutional responsibilities by delegating them to his Prime Minister, Vice President Mike Pence.  In fact, of course, everyone in the entire country will be happy that he’s chosen this course.  The people who love him will love him no matter what he does, and will be glad to see him enjoying himself.  God knows he’s earned it.  The people who hate and fear him  hope that he has absolutely nothing to do with running the government.

He and his inner circle will decide what they want, and then Pence and the rest of Trump World will set about getting it done.  Nothing is done without his permission.  Every initiative must receive his approval.  He sets goals, selects individuals to achieve them, and then exercises only a supervisory function.  He wants results, and will judge everyone in his administration by that standard.

This all became clear with the replacement of Christie by Pence as head of transition.  Jared Kushner gets his final revenge.  The damage done to his own father has been avenged.  And he made it happen. His father is very proud of him right now, and Jared is nothing if not a dutiful son.

Reince Priebus as Trump’s Chief of Staff is another tell.  The Prime Minister must work with the legislative branch, and Priebus is a Ryan guy.  Relations with Congress will go smoothly.  Pence is an old mentor of Ryan, and they will work hand in glove.  If Kellyanne Conway becomes Pence’s Chief of Staff she’ll be the most powerful woman in Washington.  I hope she gets it.  It would all fit together so nicely.  One can hope.

I guess Bannon is Trump’s consigliere and media consultant, which will suit him just fine.  If Trump appoints Cruz to the Scalia seat the whole picture will be perfect.  A presidential administration taking form without a hitch.  Add a little Article V spice to the mix and all will be complete.  We’ll have set the table for 2017, a year of political accomplishment that will be historic.

Babbie and I got to see our granddaughters, and their new house.  The older will spend the next eight years there, the younger ten.  I gave my twelve year old an assignment.  I asked her to read Article V of the Constitution, and try to understand what it meant.  And from that, can she figure out what it is that  I’ve been talking to her about for the last three years.  She’s pretty smart.  I bet she gets it.

Most people could, if they ever read Article V, and thought about it.

 

We had Reagan the Magnificent, Bush the Kind, the Clinton Crime Family, Bush the Compassionate, Obama the Detached, and now Trump the Improbable.

Andrew Jackson was the most complete bad ass to ever win the Presidency, with the exception of George Washington.  He was a common man, born to poverty, raised by a widow who earned her keep raising the family of her kin.  He was absolutely fearless, and wore the love of his country on his sleeve.  He, more than any other man, fulfilled America’s Manifest Destiny.  He did this on the field of battle in 1814 at New Orleans.  Great Britain, the most powerful country in the world, controlled northern North America, or Canada, and it wanted more.  The Louisiana Purchase gave us title to the land in question, but that transfer was considered invalid by the British.  Our title to that land was cleared with blood, by an army under Jackson’s leadership.  One of his lieutenants, Sam Houston, later brought Texas into the fold, and his political protege, James K. Polk, won the war with Mexico, and acquired California and much of the west.  Polk also negotiated the peaceful addition of the Oregon Territory, making our continental nation whole.  That was all Jackson’s work, and it was a fulfillment of the dream of the Founding Fathers.  They didn’t fight a War of Independence for a narrow strip of land on the east coast of a great unexplored continent.  They wanted it all, and Jackson delivered.

He set this all in motion before he ran for President in 1824.  The entire American political establishment cooperated in denying him his victory, led by what today we would call the Wall Street money men.  Back then it was called the Second Bank of the United States.  When he ran again it was one of the truly historic political landslides in American history.  American democracy, as we know and practice it today, began with Jackson in 1828.

Which brings me to Donald Trump.  It’s not fair to compare any man to Andrew Jackson, and with Trump it’s a non-starter.  But, in strictly political terms, he is a Jacksonian to his core.  This pampered son of a wealthy New York real estate investor has the chance to be as consequential, politically, as Andrew Jackson.

It’s up to Mike Pence to show him the way.  Trump is entering a land far different from anything he’s seen before.  He must rely on his family and his inner circle for support, and in some cases, guidance.  On constitutional questions, I believe his chief adviser will be Pence.  And Pence knows the case for Article V cold.  When the time comes, he’ll make the sale to Trump, and we’ll all work together to save the Constitution through the use of Article V.

If that’s all Trump did, we’d have to call him Trump the Resolute, or something.

 

It’s delicious.  I’ve had my hopes dashed a lot since Reagan.  Bush I was no conservative, and squandered the Reagan legacy.  Once Bill Clinton was revealed as a sexual predator, I was convinced an honorable  man like Dole would beat him.  Bush II was worse than his father, and in eight years ruined the Republican brand.   McCain was a lost cause, and Romney lost a race he should have won.  I got so used to losing that I gave up on Trump when the Access Hollywood tapes came out.

Trump is no Bill Clinton, who’s in the lowest circle of hell, which is reserved for those with the sin of treachery.  But Clinton won reelection  because voters believed his Presidency was in their personal best interest.  His personal faults were deplored, but he delivered peace and prosperity, so they were overlooked.  People may deplore Trump’s personal behavior, but they believed he had answers to our problems, and that was more important to them and their families.

A lot of good things will be happening in Washington before long, but the most important impact of this election will be on Article V, the vehicle for restoring States Rights, or federalism, the foundation of the Constitution.  We expected to win the Kentucky House, which will get us to 34.  Because of Trump coattails, it looks like we’ll win the Minnesota Senate, by one vote.  If that holds up, Minnesota will be our 35th, meaning we don’t need Maryland.  We’ll have 34 without them.

It’s been a long three years, for me, personally.  When Obamacare crashed as soon as it was implemented, I figured the tide had turned.  It was the signature issue for the Progressives, and its implosion was all theirs.  It won the Senate for us two years ago, and it may have been the issue that tipped this Presidential election.

A guy like Donald Trump never fit into my calculations.  We’re both old dogs, and he taught me a new trick.  Congratulations to President-elect Trump, his family, his campaign team, and his legions of supporters.  We’re taking our country back.