Month: May 2017

Our support of the family of Saud goes back to 1938 when American petroleum engineers from Standard of New York discovered oil on its land.  They’ve been more or less an American protectorate ever since.

Ronald Reagan’s first foreign policy initiative in 1981 was the sale to the Saudis of AWACS planes.  This gave them some protection from the Israeli Air Force, and was strenuously opposed by Israel and its American allies in AIPAC.  But the Gipper prevailed, and soon afterward the Saudis began flooding the world crude oil markets, driving the spot price per barrel down to as low as $8.  As in “eight”.

It broke the Russians, whose only source of hard currency was the sale of crude oil.  The Soviets collapsed because they didn’t have the money for an arms race.  The Saudis did that for us, and the world, and we haven’t forgotten.

Tomorrow Trump heads to Saudi Arabia, where he will meet as many as 20 Sunni heads of state, assembled for him by the Saudis.  A Sunni Arab NATO is being formed, headed by the Saudis, and including Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, the various Gulf states, and any Sunni Arab who wants to join, including the Kurds.

Trump will announce one of the largest and most comprehensive arms sales in Middle East history.  Obama’s tilt to Iran is over.  In the never ending war between Shia and Sunni, we’re on the Sunni, or Saudi, side.  Israel is cheering from the sideline.

This is what Trump will be accomplishing on his first two stops overseas, in Saudi Arabia and Israel.  While he’s in his third, the Vatican, I hope he publicly defends this country from the socialist Pope.  Saint John Paul II is dishonored by having this sappy sermonizer as Pope.  He needs to be put in his place.

All of the foregoing is important to the promotion of our national interests.  What Trump is doing is of world historical significance.  Together, the Americans, the Russians and the Saudis can control the world’s oil markets.  If we’re all getting along, we have a mutual interest in maintaining the price at a reasonable level.

As the world’s swing, or marginal oil producer, we can control the price of oil through the use of export taxes.  Every barrel of crude, and every mcf of natural gas, would have to pay an export fee to the United States Treasury in order to leave our borders.

We would be using our oil wealth to advance our own interest.  We’ve done it before.  Both World Wars were won with American oil.

So the next time you run across an American petroleum engineer, buy him a beer.

For the last few days I’ve been undergoing Trump Withdrawal Syndrome.  This happens when you’re so sick of reading about Comey and the Russians and impeachment that you stop reading the news, especially anything about Donald Trump.  He’s a jerk, but you only get one President at a time, and I wish him well.  There are other things to do, and think about, than Donald Trump, thank God.

The capper was Ross Douthat’s piece in the NYT calling for Trump’s removal under the 25th Amendment.  With this, Douthat has gone over the edge, into the liberal universe of moral preening, and good riddance to him.  He’s now an official lap dog of the liberal left.

AG Sessions, Deputy AG Rosenstein, and Special Counsel Mueller are three of the most honorable people in the American system of justice.  As far as I’m concerned, until Mueller completes his investigation, this whole story is dead.  Anything said or written about it is a distraction from the nation’s business.

Trump didn’t do anything wrong with the Russians, so he’s got nothing to worry about.  If anybody did, their heads should roll.

This was done very cleanly, and for that you can thank Rod Rosenstein.  I’ve liked every move he’s made.  He’s a very smart man, and he’s incorruptible.  The same goes for Mueller.

Former U. S. Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska was a notorious publicity hound.  He’s famous for seconding his own nomination for Vice President at the Democratic Convention in 1972.  He was so moved by his own words that he broke down in tears.

In 1974 he was reelected to the Senate.  That was fine with me.  I moved to Alaska, in part, to run against him.  The guy was obviously a complete nut, and that Senate seat was vulnerable to a conservative Republican.  If I couldn’t win in 1980 there was always 1986, when I’d be 41 years old, and in my prime.

I heard a lot of stories about Gravel, who everybody in Alaska politics hated.  After he was told about some story in a newspaper attacking him, he supposedly asked, “Did they spell my name right?”  When told yes, he said, “Good.  I don’t care what they say about me, as long as my name is out there.”

Come to think of it, that’s sort of the way Trump operates.

For Article V, all publicity is good publicity. The Convention of States Project got their 11th state last week.  It was a big one, Texas, and they got Gov. Abbott to have the press cover it.  They even got on Fox News, which is a first for Article V, as far as I know.

Fox News is sinking, and they need to change course.  A good first step would be regular coverage of developments with Article V.  It would set them apart, and reestablish their conservative bona fides.  And it’s a good story.  Fox needs to be in Phoenix.  They have a Phoenix affiliate, and they can do the national feed.

The Phoenix Convention of States doesn’t need publicity to succeed.  But it would make it much more impactful, and educational.  And we have a lot of educating to do.

When Gravel was Speaker of the House in 1967 he was in Sitka with Rep. Bill Ray of Juneau.  They were checking out of their seaside hotel when Gravel told Ray to bring his bags down from his room.  So Bill goes into his room, opens up the window, and tosses Gravel’s luggage into the ocean.

Then he goes down to the front desk and tells Gravel where his bags were.

Bill Ray was one of the old bulls of the Senate when I met him in 1983.  He didn’t like the way I looked at him, and came close to throwing me off the Judiciary Committee just for my attitude.  In my district, in South Anchorage, Bill Ray was a corrupt union thug.

But we eventually kind of liked each other, and he loved telling me stories.

The choice of Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State was inspired.  International diplomacy requires knowledge of the oil and gas industry, which is central to geopolitics.  T. Rex knows oil and gas in spades, and in that regard he and his country are sitting pretty, as he’s well aware.

It looks as though OPEC and Russia are going to extend their production cuts of crude.  This despite the fact that the price is only around $45 a barrel, far lower than they want it.  They have no choice.

America’s frackers are now the swing, or marginal producers in oil and gas.  It appears that they can make money at $45-55 a barrel, so that appears to be the range within which oil prices will vary for the foreseeable future.

The Russians can squeak by with $45 oil, but the real threat to their power is natural gas.  Much of Europe relies on Russian gas.  In Eastern Europe it’s up to 100% reliance in Slovakia, down to 50% in Germany.

We have an oversupply of gas, and need to ship it overseas.  This has begun, and will quicken under Trump’s lax regulatory environment.  Europe is already preparing import terminals where the gas can be unfrozen and shipped to customers.

We’re in the process of taking away one of Russia’s great export markets.  The Europeans will pay a premium for our gas, because they know it will always flow freely.  The Russians periodically cut back gas shipments as a way to flex their muscle.  They’ll soon be paying a price for such behavior.

Russia is weak, and getting weaker.  This is no time to back the bear into a corner.  At some point, geopolitical reality will bring about a Russian/American entente.  The sooner the better.

We outnumber the Russians better than two to one, our economy dwarfs theirs, and so on.  Why this fixation on Russia as the enemy?

Our great world competitor is China, and we want the Russians to understand and appreciate our legitimate national security interests in the Pacific.  There is peace on the Chinese-Russian border, and that’s the way both countries want it.  We want to get along with both Russia and China.

The United States and Russia are the world’s #1 and #2 hydrocarbon producers.  Maybe we could reach an understanding on the world’s markets, and divide it up into spheres of influence.  If you look back at the history of the oil industry, in The Prize,  you’ll see that this kind of thing used to be done all the time.

Rex Tillerson knows a lot more about this than almost anyone, and I’m glad he’s on the job.

When Trump saw Comey say he was nauseous at the thought he may have influenced the election, it was over.  Trump took that as a personal insult, and you don’t dis the Donald.  It was an easy call.

Someone in the Trump camp is responsible for the appointment of Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General.  That’s the person he needs to listen to.  With him on the job, the firing of Comey went smoothly.  His memo to Trump on the subject was brilliant, but also quite simple.

Comey is a cop, not a D.A.  He investigates, and reports, and that’s it.  Going public, as he did, is totally out of bounds.  He did it out of personal rectitude.

As an experienced law force professional, Comey knew Bill Clinton was a criminal.  He was horrified by Clinton’s meeting with Lynch, and he couldn’t let that stand.  But he was out of bounds.

Rod Rosenstein is  a career public servant.  He’s a brilliant lawyer (editor of Harvard Law Review, etc.) who has never worked in the private sector.  His wife is also a public servant, as a lawyer for the National Health Institute.  With his legal pedigree, he could have made a lot of money practicing law.  But he chose public service instead.

He’ll decide where the Russia/Trump story goes.  Trump knows he didn’t do anything wrong, or he never would have appointed Rosenstein.  Rod Rosenstein, because of who he is, has the stature to give Trump a clean bill of health, over Russia or anything else.  If the appointment of a special prosecutor was warranted, he’d appoint one.

But he won’t, because there’s nothing there.  The whole Russia thing is a Resistance fantasy, right up there with equating Comey’s dismissal with Watergate.  Hysteria, pure and simple.  It can’t last long.