Month: January 2017

The Ukraine is almost as big as Texas, and has over 40 million residents, of whom about 8 million are ethnic Russians.  It has only rarely been an independent nation.  It’s where the Russian nation originated, and is mainly an Orthodox Christian country.  Nikita Khrushchev gifted it with Crimea 60 years ago, just to be nice.  But Ukranians suffered as much or more than anyone under the Communists, and they don’t want to be dictated to by Moscow.

Putin wants the Ukraine to be within the Russian sphere of influence, and a buffer between Russia and the West.  The Ukranians, if they could, would join NATO and the European Union.  This is the most pressing, and critical, issue between us and them.  Is there a way to a negotiated settlement, and avoid further bloodshed?

A guy who goes by the handle of “The Saker”  has a solution: a federalist Ukranian state, with high levels of autonomy for all regions, including the heavily Russian ethnic Donbass.  A new Convention of Forces Europe treaty between Russia and the West would be negotiated, and a neutral and non-aligned Ukraine would be the center piece of a final European post World War II, and post Cold War, settlement.  The Ukranians might not like it, but they live in a tough neighborhood, and this may be the best deal they can get.

The Saker is a 52 year old Dutch/Russian, raised by his Russian mother, born in Geneva, who worked for the Swiss military and came to the U.S. in 2002 and is now a legal alien in Florida.  He’s not an American, is not particularly pro-American, is a fervid anti-Zionist, and a friend to the Palestinians.  His world view isn’t  mine, to say the least.  His web site currently features a rabidly pro-Cuban article by a French Moslem, who thinks Cuba is and always has been the best thing going.  But that doesn’t mean a federalist Ukraine is a bad idea.  Personally, I’m in favor of federalism just as a general principle  — local laws, local control.

Apparently my suggestion of an Alaska Russian-American summit isn’t going anywhere.  It looks as though Putin and Trump will meet in Iceland, just as Gorbachev and Reagan did in 1986.  If it were not for Reagan’s refusal to give up the Strategic Defense Initiative, something like real nuclear disarmament was within reach back then.  Nothing so ambitious is possible so early in Trump’s administration, but ground work can be laid.  The Ukraine will certainly be a topic of conversation.  If the two of them could agree, conceptually, to the federalist solution, it could be the start of a general outline of a peaceful Europe.  NATO would eventually be unnecessary, as would massive  nuclear capability.

The Saker believes the world is run by an Anglo-Zionist conspirators, neocons if you will, and that they will use their control of the “deep state” to thwart any move toward a Russian-American entente.  I think he’s a conspiracy freak, and Trump as President will be free to negotiate as he sees fit.  He wants a deal, Putin wants a deal, and if the two of them reach an understanding, the Russians and the Americans can dictate their terms to the rest of Europe.  The neocons, or Anglo-Zionists, in the Saker’s phrase, have no power to stop him.  If they could, they would have not allowed him to win the Presidency.  The neocons have no constituency in this country, and no power.  John McCain and Marco Rubio speak for themselves, and damn few other people.

The American people want peace, with the Russians and everybody else.  Trump says he knows how to make deals.  Let’s see what he’s got.

 

And even thou art a little queer.

But Donald Trump is in a league of his own.  In a week he’ll be President of the United States, yet he’s so insecure he feels compelled to lash out at a washed up old black Congressman from Georgia.  He can’t even take criticism from an air headed movie star.  And his reaction is always an ad hominem attack, using insults as a substitute for dialogue.  Half the country can’t stand him, and many of his own voters cast their ballots with a sense of unease.  After a quick uptick after the election, his approval ratings are back in the toilet.  He was the most disliked man to ever win the Presidency, and when he takes the oath he’ll enter office with a negative approval rating — and that’s a first.  But we want him to succeed.  It’s as though a third of the country are on the Trump train, a third hate his guts, and a third are still trying to figure out what the country is in for with this guy.

He’ll be meeting with Putin soon, and this will be the most important meeting of his Presidency.  Putin wants to work with Trump, so there’s hope of a mutually beneficial understanding.  But with Trump, who the hell knows?

Phillipe Reines was the Trump stand in during Clinton’s debate prep.  He studied Trump intently to prepare for the job.  And he claims Trump doesn’t look people in the eye.  He avoids eye contact.  If that is true, it’s troubling.  Another sign of insecurity, I assume.  What is Putin going to make of this guy?

The hawks for war with Russia are crazy.  The French tried with Napoleon, and it is my opinion that World War I was caused by German Army generals who were becoming fearful of growing Russian strength.  They figured they’d have to fight the Russians eventually, and they wanted the war to come quickly, while they were still strong enough to defeat them.  And they did defeat them, but it cost them the war.  Hitler couldn’t wait to fight the Russians.  The Four Year Plan he adopted in 1936 was a timetable for war, and he kept it.

The historical evidence seems clear.  Getting in a land war with the Russians is the dumbest thing you can do.  And yet we’ve just sent American soldiers to Poland to prepare to do just that.  They must be withdrawn, and I expect Trump will do it post haste.  They are a provocation.  When the Russians got too close to us, in Cuba in 1962, we were ready to go to war to get them out.  Russia has a small border with Poland.  How would we like to be in their shoes?

After World War I Germany was stripped of territory by France, Poland, Belgium and Czechoslovakia.  World War II was all Hitler’s doing, but this dismemberment of Germany gave him a following.

In a sense, the Russians are like the Germans after World War I.  They lost the Cold War, just as the Germans lost their world war.  They lost their Soviet Empire, and have stranded Russian ethnic populations in the former Soviet Republics.  Just like the Germans.  And they feel they’ve been disrespected, and taken advantage of.  And, of course, unlike the Germans, they have a nuclear arsenal that is capable of destroying us.

That should be the ultimate goal of our relationship with Russia, nuclear disarmament.  I don’t want their missiles capable of taking us out, and I’m sure they feel the same way.  We’ve got nothing to fight over, so let’s get rid of them.  This was Ronald Reagan’s great dream, and his greatest disappointment.

That would be a legacy.  Is Trump the Unlikely the man to do it?  With him, you never know.

 

 

And they’re off!

Wyoming breaks from the pack early, and may pass the House next week, in which case Senate President Eli Bebout will likely put  it up for a vote by the end of the month.  In Wyoming, as throughout the West, Loren Enns picked up the ball and ran with it.  The success in Wyoming has many fathers, but Loren, through dedication and hours, days, and weeks of effort, will be the one who finally put all the pieces together.  Thanks to the financial support of Dave and Suzie Biddulph, Loren has been working full time.  That’s 29 down, 5 to go.

Next up is Idaho, again a case where Loren Enns decided to work with our man in Idaho, Greg Casey, and make it happen.   Loren recounted an encounter Davis had recently with a high ranking official in the southeastern Idaho Mormon Church.  This man had opposed Article V, but after study and reflection realized he was wrong.  He is now an ardent supporter, and at a Republican Party Central Committee meeting decided to take Senator Davis to task on the subject, which he did, at length, and with strong letter to follow.   Davis now knows he’s beat.  We should get Idaho in February.  30 down, 4 to go.

In Arizona Loren had the wit to hire uber-lobbyist/campaign consultant Constantin Querard, and with his capable help we’ve got 24 sponsors in the House, including the Speaker.  Next week Querard and Loren, or Bill Fruth, will meet with the last two Senators we need to get the magic number of 16.  The Senate President is ready to bring it up as soon as possible.  That will be 31 down, three to go, in early March.

Loren, David Guldenschuh and Tom Llewellyn will be descending on Kentucky, which is virgin ground, and needs a lot of work.  Senator Schroeder was tasked by Senate President Stivers to recommend an Article V Resolution, and he decided on the BBA.  This legislature has already demonstrated how quickly it can work.  They’ll be back in session in early February, and we should pass both Houses in March.  32 down, two to go.

Our man in South Carolina, John Steinberger, says we don’t need to bother hiring a lobbyist.  With Steinberger on the case, you don’t need one.  Every State has one name associated with it, such as Oklahoma and Gary Banz, or South Dakota, and Hal Wick.  In South Carolina it’s John Steinberger.  The votes are there, in committee, on the floor, and in both Houses.  33 down, 1 to go.

Tom Llewellyn will be travelling to Wisconsin, to meet with the Sphinx, Sen. Chris Kapenga.  There’s no reason we can’t get Wisconsin by April.  The votes are there, in the House and Senate.  And the Magic Number is  —  34!

Guldenschuh tells me he’s got a documentary producer who wants to start filming this movement once we get to 32.  Maybe that’s what Kapenga’s been waiting for.

Time for a walk.  If you look hard enough, you can already see the very first signs of spring here in the Gold Country.  Flowers will bloom in a matter of weeks.  It’s going to be a great year.

Like most Americans, I’m ethnically European, and I’m quite proud of my mainly German and Irish ancestry.  My grandfather, Jules Achenbach, was an American soldier in WW I, and my father and his four brothers, sons of an Irish mother, all served in WW II.  But I will resist with every ounce of energy I possess any move to send American soldiers to fight in another European war.  Twice is enough.  Three times is just too  much.

NATO is dead.  It’s a relic of the Cold War, and, having served its purpose, should be discarded.  If Russia is a threat to Europe, that’s their problem, not ours.  Western Europe is as rich and large and populous as we are.  They are more than a match for the Russians, if they choose to defend themselves.  And it’s their choice.

I’m an Anglophile and a staunch supporter of Israel, and feel an attack on Britain or Israel would be like an attack on a relative, which I would fight for.  But not Germany, or France or the Baltics.  We are not the world’s policeman.  We’re secure by our status as a continental island.  No one is a threat to us.

So let’s be clear.  If we fight to defend Europe we’re doing it for the money.  We have an enormous economic stake in Europe, and if it was to become a shambles it would reduce our standard of living.  GDP could go down 15%.  Is that worth dying for?

But there shouldn’t be a European war.  Trump and Putin need to come to an understanding, of what is off limits.  The eastern Ukraine may have to go, and something may need to happen with the million ethnic Russians in the Baltics.  Other than that, we have no territorial or other disputes with them.

Hitler got the same deal at Munich, when he was given the Sudetenland, the equivalent of eastern Ukraine.  But Hitler was crazy, and actively sought war with the Soviets.   Putin is not crazy, and he will not treat Trump the way Hitler treated Stalin.  He doesn’t want a war.

Trump could go down in history as the man who created the Russian-American Entente of the 21st century.  That would be one for the books.  Together, we could make short work of the jihadis.  And together we could reach an understanding with the Chinese.

Vladimir Putin is a ruthless killer, who has the support of the Russian people.  Coming to an understanding with him is in the best interest of the American people.  And isn’t that what our foreign policy should be all about?  Is it good, or bad, for the American people to have good relations with Russia?

I happened to catch Ted Cruz “questioning” Jeff Sessions at the confirmation hearings.  He put Al Franken on a spit, and grilled him.  Sen. Sessions was loving every moment.  It might even wind up getting Ted out of the Senate, and off to the Supreme Court, where he so clearly belongs.

 

 

What happens if Trump decides he doesn’t want to do any more press conferences?  Will the press go on strike, and refuse to report on Trump’s activities?   Will they be more hostile to him than they already are?   Will the American people rise as one and demand that the President submit himself to this hectoring by the media?  No, no, no.

Trump’s been pretty good at staying off camera during the transition.  He should continue to stay shy.  Just because he won, and he’s going to be President for four years, doesn’t mean people have decided they like him after all.  Tens of millions of Americans voted for him, even though they didn’t like him.  They still don’t like him.  But they want him to succeed.  He’ll have to earn their affection through actual deeds done.

I guess I’m speaking for myself here.  I’m tremendously excited by the accomplishments that are possible in just the next four years.  By traditional American standards, we may undergo a political revolution, as significant as 1828 or 1932.  The men and women Trump and his family have chosen to lead this administration are All-Stars, with few exceptions.  Every one of them has a full agenda.  Every corner of the federal government needs a thorough house cleaning, from the Justice Department to the :Postal Service.  Trump’s got the team to do it.  Jared Kushner is an extraordinary young man, and a brilliant judge of talent and temperament.  He’s learned a lot, quickly.  The first pick he made was the crucial one, and thank God Mike Pence got the job.  With these two standing at Trump’s side, I expect great things.

As long as Trump, personally, doesn’t get in the way.  He still doesn’t understand the concept of presidential demeanor.   Presidents are expected to act in a certain way  — restrained, in full control of themselves.  Not hot headed, and hostile.

Dan McLaughlin at NRO is doing a series on how Trump won, and it’s interesting.  He says Trump had the worst performance by a challenger in a post-incumbent election in 200 years.  Every candidate before him, in a similar position, gained at least two points from his party’s previous performance.  Trump gained less than one.  He says. “A candidate with nothing but the historical wind at his back would have fared better than Trump.”  And that doesn’t take account of the fact that his opponent, Clinton, was the second most disliked nominee in American history.

Trump, personally, has no mandate, but his issues do.  It’s a very odd situation.

Rep. Powers and Sen. Kelsey had a press conference today to announce the Nashville Convention of States.  I doubt it gets covered much.  Nobody understands what they’re talking about.  Yet.