Month: June 2016

Strange things have happened at American political party conventions.  A revolt against Trump in Cleveland would hearken back to history.  It’s unlikely, but virtually everything associated with Trump has been unlikely til now, so who the hell knows?  If he continues stepping in it, and sinks further in the polls, anything is possible.  Putting thousands of political activists together at a convention, from every corner of the country, and strangers to one another, creates a combustible condition.

The  Cleveland Rebellion lacks one critical element, a white knight.  But in our history such knights have emerged from the chaos of a convention itself. In 1880 James Garfield of Ohio gave the nominating speech for John Sherman.  Garfield had absolutely no interest in the job himself.  James Blaine, Roscoe Conkling and even former President Grant were all serious contenders.  But Garfield was the best man among them, and everyone in the hall knew it.  So in spite of his sincere resistance, he got a few votes in the opening ballots.  As the balloting continued, and gridlock reigned, on the 35th ballot he picked up 50 votes, and won a majority on the 36th.  Garfield was a great man, and would have been a great President, but died from medical malpractice after being shot.  The man who killed him was his physician,  Dr. Bliss, an ignorant man who ignored Lister and the threat of infection.

Trump lacks discipline.  It’s his nature.  He has tremendous will power, and high intelligence, but no discipline.  He’s achieved as much as he dreamed he would, and more.  And he’s done it all without discipline.  It’s not a quality that a 70 year old man acquires easily.  In some ways, he disdains discipline, as a quality that truly strong men can do without.  And in some ways discipline is subjection to authority.  Authoritarian men, like Trump, respect no authority  but their own.  Paul Manafort has as much chance of instilling discipline in Donald Trump as Tinker Bell does.

Trump’s authoritarianism could be his undoing.  It goes against the grain in this country, at least the part where I live, the Far West.  There’s the story of the British visitor to a western ranch, who asked a cowboy where he might find his master.  To which the cowboy replied, “That sumbitch hasn’t been born.”  There’s a lot of anti-authority in the Far West.  In fact, the more you think about it, Trump is the opposite of the archetype of the Far West, the cowboy.  You can’t see Trump on a horse, with a cowboy hat, being a bad ass cowboy.  That’s not him.

There used to be a theory that most Americans don’t really pay too much attention to politics until the Conventions.  So polls right now are not predictive.  I go to 538.com to see what they’ve got to say on the polls, which is nothing.  It’s really too early.  What counts between now and the election is execution, on a daily basis.  It’s Presidential Politics 101.  Trump doesn’t really believe in much of it, and it’s going to cost him.  The press has formed a united front against him, with the WaPo taking the lead.  Old Bernstein has got some young reporters there thinking they can win a Pulitzer by taking down Trump.  And they’re going to try, with the blessing of their employer, Jeff Bezos.

Babbie and I are taking our granddaughter to an A’s game tomorrow.  I think they’re the worst team in the league.  But, what the hell, it’s baseball.

Turmoil in America is nothing new.  I like the parallels with 1920, which ended in the greatest political landslide in the history of contested Presidential elections, and the beginning of the Roaring Twenties.

Wilson’s Attorney General, Palmer, thought we were menaced by Bolshies, as they were called, and after having two separate bombing attacks on his home, initiated the Palmer Raids.  He arrested 6-10,000 people, and discovered three pistols, but no bombs.  He did manage to deport around 750 of the trouble makers, though.  But then on September 16, 1920 a bomb went off in front of J. P. Morgan’s bank on Wall Street, killing 38 and injuring hundreds more.  It stood as the worst terror attack in our history until Oklahoma City.

This was believed to be the work of Italian anarchists, just as the assassination of McKinley had been the work of a Polish anarchist.  1920 was the year of Sacco and Venzetti, and Ponzi, of Prohibition, and women’s suffrage, and 3,600 strikes by organized labor.  Harding’s phrase, “a return to normalcy”, had a lot of appeal.

2016 isn’t 1920.  This year in politics stands alone, and I defy anyone to tell me with assurance they know how it will all turn out.  Maybe it’s just a prelude to 2020, when history will repeat itself after 100 years.

I was all set to celebrate Father’s Day when I made the mistake of watching a snippet of Meet the Press.  Chuck Todd announced that he believes the gay community in America is about to join forces with the gun control movement.  With these reinforcements, and under the leadership of Hillary Clinton, the NRA may at last be defeated.

This naturally depressed me, a life member.  The Gun Gestapo is going gay, and every friend of the Second Amendment, is forewarned.

We’re already forearmed.

One sentiment that annoys me more than most is political purity.  I’ve seen it on the internet from pro-lifers who refuse to support Gary Johnson because he’s pro-choice.  These people need to get off their high horse and realize the situation we find ourselves in.  It’s dire.  Clinton would be four more years of Obama, with a little corruption thrown in.  It might be better with Trump, but it might not.  With this guy, you never know.  Do we really want to hand the keys over to this sixteen year old with a six pack?

Orlando was right in his wheel house, but he blew it by patting himself on the back for being right.  The only way to explain such stupidity by a man who is not stupid is by reference to his ego.  It’s never satisfied, it must be constantly fed.  That’s why the rallies are so important to him, and why he can’t let them go.  These rallies are just a giant ego trip for Donald J. Trump, American strongman, worshiped by millions of adoring fans.  And his fans want entertainment, and he knows how to deliver.  He can’t be Presidential, he has be an entertainer.  He won’t let it go, it’s like an intoxicant.  The adoration of the crowd can be addicting.

Johnson will appoint another Clarence Thomas to the bench, if he has any intelligent libertarian lawyers advising him.  Scalia was a great conservative.  Thomas is even  better, a libertarian.  And if Johnson gets another vacancy he could appoint a second Justice, whose vote could overturn Roe v. Wade, the goal of the pro-life movement for 40 years.   As President, all of Johnson’s judicial appointments would be from the Federalist Society, or close to it.  Aside from those appointments, there is nothing Johnson would do which would affect the pro-life cause.  Don’t worry about federal funding for abortion.  Johnson doesn’t  believe in federal funding for damn near anything.

Libertarians such as myself have supported people like Ted Cruz even though he’s much more conservative on social issues.  That’s just politics.  You don’t get a whole loaf.  Now we’re asking social conservatives to return the favor.  Considering the alternatives, it’s not too much to ask.

I think Trump is an American Jean-Marie LePen.  LePen never won the big prize.  He’s an old nut, and called the Holocaust a “detail of history.”  So his much more intelligent daughter, Marine, kicked him out of his own party, which she now leads.  I hope she becomes President of France.  I am a very big fan of Marine LePen.  If Brexit passes, there may be a chain reaction of nationalism across Europe, which just might do it for her.  Here’s hoping.

And, of course, the Donald has his very own Marine LePen in his daughter Ivanka.  This is the kind of woman who could do pretty much anything she wanted to.  I hope, for her sake, it doesn’t include politics.  She looks like too much of a mother.

This country feels like it’s coming apart.  Something’s got to give.  It’s like you know an earthquake is coming.  All you can do is wait.  After it’s over, my gut tells me that the Center will have less power than it has today.  Sanders was an attack on the Center.  Cruz and Trump are both attacks on the Center.  And Gary Johnson hates the Center most of all.

The Center will not hold.  It must federalize.

Barry Goldwater wasn’t running to win the Presidency in 1964.  It was out of reach, and he knew it.  He was running to start a political movement, a movement which came to power sixteen years later with Reagan’s election.   Bernie Sanders was running for President a while back.  But for some time now, he’s been running to start a political movement.  Men like Goldwater and Sanders are unusually selfless.  They know they won’t win the prize.  They’re blazing a trail for someone else to follow.

I’m hoping Gary Johnson is running to win the Presidency, and not to be the Fremont of 1856.  Fremont was the first serious candidate of the new Republican Party.  “The Great Pathfinder”, as he was known, helped pave the way for Lincoln.  It’s possible that the Libertarian Party may supplant the GOP.  To my mind, it’s much easier just to take over the Republican Party, from the grass roots up.  But party building should not be Gary Johnson’s concern.  He should be in this thing to win, period.  The closer he gets, the better off the Libertarian Party will be.

But if he comes to Alaska, and campaigns with the Libertarian Senate Candidate, Cean Stevens, he kills two birds with one stone.  Alaska is probably his best shot at winning a state.  He could endorse the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend program, currently under sustained assault by Independent Gov. Walker.  That would win Johnson votes in Alaska, trust me.

And Cean ( it’s pronounced “keen”, and means pig herder in Gaelic) Stevens has a shot at winning, and becoming the first Libertarian member of Congress.  Mayor Dan Sullivan has pulled out, for unspecified reasons, so the field on the right is clear.  The Democrats have got a nobody running, and Lisa Murkowski is a RINO princess, who is roundly despised by many on the political right.  And Alaska is a very red state.

If Johnson’s going to do this, he needs to do it before the Alaska primary on August 16th.  We want Stevens to score big in that primary.  We want to convince the people at the Senate Conservatives Fund, and the Club for Growth, and Heritage, etc., that we’ve got a legitimate shot at taking down the ripest RINO target in the Senate, Murkowski.  Joe Miller did it in a primary, showing it can be done.

What makes this a threefer for Johnson is the opportunity it gives him to promote the Transfer of Public Lands.  Economically, the State of Alaska is being asphyxiated by the federal ownership of its lands.  If the TPL were to take place, Alaska would boom as it hasn’t done since the 80’s.  That’s how Johnson wins Alaska, in one stroke.  If it’s given enough publicity, it will be a major boost to his chances throughout the Far West.

Before visiting Anchorage and Fairbanks, Johnson should stop in Ketchikan, where he can make his big speech on TPL.  When Babbie and I arrived there in 1973, it had a thriving timber industry.  It’s all gone now, shut down by the National Forest Service, which owns all the land the logs were on.  An entire industry, an entire community, destroyed by the environmentalists in the federal government.  Under TPL the Tongass National Forest would be transferred to the state, and the timber industry of Southeast Alaska could be reborn.

The big business now in Ketchikan is selling T-shirts to tour boat visitors.  It’s a dying town, and a great place for a speech on TPL.

When Babbie and I were in the second year of law school at UCLA I saw a flyer advertising for third year law students who wanted to intern for a quarter of credit.  One of them was the City Attorney’s Office in Ketchikan, so I applied, was accepted, and in June of ’73 Babbie and I flew to Ketchikan for a six month stay.  At that time, Ketchikan itself didn’t have an airport, so you landed on Annette Island, about 30 miles away, and then you flew on an amphibious Beaver, which dropped you off right at the city dock.

Babbie was a real trooper, the whole time.  We got to know a lawyer named Pete Ellis and his wife, and he hired Babbie to work at his law office.  He was a personal injury lawyer, and he had a case where the plaintiffs were Metlakatla Indians, living on their reservation.  They’re a different tribe than all the others of Southeast, Canadian imports, I believe.  Pete needed statements from these people to help establish his case for damages, which could include loss of consortium.  So he tells Babbie to fly down to Metlakatla and get the statements from these Indians about their losses.  So off she goes, in some light plane, and goes into the village and gets the statements.

Marrying well is the best thing a man can do.

And even thou art a little queer.

We really do live in two different worlds.  I sit here in amazement at the fact that gun control is the political lesson of Orlando.  In truth, the only real defense against terror shooters is an armed citizenry.  You need a gun to take down a man with a gun, and if he’s intent on mass slaughter he’ll do his deadly business far from the police.

I read an article by a retired SEAL recommending an AR-15 for home defense.  It’s easy to use, and deadly as hell.  I’ve never wanted one before, but times change.  Maybe I’ll get one for Christmas.

Bill Clinton blames his support for a gun control law for the Democrat’s loss of the House in 1994.  Nationally, it’s a political loser.  I can’t recall any Democratic Presidential candidate emphasizing their support for gun control in a campaign.  But apparently that’s Hillary’s plan.  I think she’s jeopardizing Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest.  Kiss off the Far West, that’s for sure.

Since he’s from the Far West, I’ll bet Gary Johnson knows a few things about guns.  Most everybody in this part of the country is comfortable with firearms.  Trump’s support of gun rights is as real as his hair, and he’s vulnerable on this issue.  Johnson may find real political benefit, at least in the Far West, from running hard on the Second Amendment.

Johnson needs to make some news, get some earned media.  It takes imagination.  It’s the kind of thing Trump excels at.  But you can’t be timid.  You’ve got to earn that media.  You need a Donny Deutsch type guy, a publicist.  I know.  You could get film of Johnson riding around in a tank.  Oh, wait.  Dukakis already tried that.

I’ll be disappointed if Brexit loses.  Brexit is a form of federalism, and I’m all in on federalism, all around the world.  Get government as close to the people as possible.  Local control, local customs, local laws.

That’s the way it was set up in this country, but for a century now the progressives have centralized power.  I continue to believe that the tide has turned, and that political power will be decentralized in this country, via Article V.  It will be a turning point in our political history.

This election ought to be about reigning in the power and scope of the federal government.  It’s a discussion the American people are ready for.  But Trump just wants control of the federal government, so we won’t have that debate this cycle.

Unless, of course, Johnson makes it an issue.  The issue is Transfer of Public Lands.  There are some very cool places in the Far West you can go to have a political event to promote TPL.  Cruz chose Couer d’Alene, Idaho, which is surrounded by federal forests.  Johnson may know of some in New Mexico.  Use that as a backdrop for making an announcement on TPL  — such as the endorsement of the TPL legislation being developed by the American Lands Council.  That’s what I’d do.

Why do pollsters decline to include Johnson in their polls?  I don’t get it.  Is there a reason?  He’s at around 10%, so he’s definitely a factor.

Trump needs to do something to stop the bleeding.  He needs to change the narrative.  He’s been very good at that, but that was before the press really turned on him.  It will be harder now.  Who knows what he’ll come up with?  That’s the thing with this guy.  You never know.