Month: May 2016

There are enough Republicans who personally despise Donald Trump to prevent him from beating Clinton.   As a man, he is loathsome.  But he likes himself just the way he is, and will continue to show the world his inner juvenile delinquent.  His fans are the type that cheer for football players who are little better than athletically gifted street thugs.  Sure, he may beat up women, but look at him run!

Unless we get an Independent candidacy from someone like Greg Abbott, things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.  Serious people like Paul Ryan know that we have no choice but to reform entitlements, but the political will isn’t there.  The deficits will at some point overwhelm the monetary system.  The Federal Reserve is just about out of ammunition, and the economy can’t recover without regulatory and tax reforms.  Money in the stock market is a bet on growth, and where do we expect growth?  A cheap dollar is a stimulus, but no solution.  I’ve thrown in my hand, and gone to cash.

The case for Article V has never been stronger, but it may be years away.  We’ve got 28 states for the BBA, and should pick up Arizona, Wyoming, Idaho and Wisconsin next year.  If the Kentucky House flips, which I still think is likely, we could be at 33.  Our nemesis in South Carolina, Sen. Hugh Leatherman, has drawn a primary challenge, and if he were somehow to lose, we could have 34 next year.  But after the rescission in Delaware we have to expect the same in Maryland.  So we would need Virginia.  A tough fight, but doable.  If we still have the House, it will aggregate the Resolutions and send them to the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will kill it.  At that point it could become an issue in the 2018 elections.

I called Gov. Abbott’s office, and was told he has no plans to push the Texas Plan until next year.  After the drubbing we take in November, more people may be willing to look at the Article V solution.  What else have we got?  It’s our last, best hope.  And as the politics of Washington devolves further into chaos and gridlock, it will become more and more obvious.  Congress is the problem, and Article V is the solution.  Abbott can raise the money, and if he puts some kind of organization together I’ll offer to get involved.  Working with the BBA Task Force for the last three years has taught me a few things about getting Article V Resolutions passed in various states.  I don’t see any reason why Alaska couldn’t be one of the first states to pass the Texas plan, and off we go.

Things are going to hell in this country, and everybody’s pissed off.  Everybody should be pissed off.  Ted Cruz ran a great campaign, technically, but he wasn’t pissed off enough.  I wonder what would have happened if, early on, he called out the Bushes, 1, 2 and 3, as the family that squandered the Reagan legacy.  Jeb was there, ready to get beat up on behalf of the whole clan.  But then nobody saw Trump coming, so it would have been risky.

I think a big lesson of this election is the death of Bushism.  And not a minute too soon.  Compassionate conservatism, represented by Bush 3 and Kasich, got its ass kicked.  If nothing else, the rise of Donald Trump shows that kinder and gentler is over.

God knows what the world will look like in 2020.  I bet it’s pretty ugly.  The anger and frustration with Washington will only grow.  Trump’s a one off, so we won’t be confronted with his like again.  You’d think.  But after this year, it’s more apparent than ever.

Nobody knows anything.

Mitt Romney was criticized for carrying a dog kennel on top if his station wagon on a family vacation.  As I recall, he was also accused of hazing a classmate in high school.  That’s all the dirt they had on him, but they ran with it.

In his long and tumultuous life, Trump has said and done a lot worse, and we’ll hear all about it this fall. But not just yet.  Only when he is officially nominated will the dogs be turned loose on him.  There will be so much to chew on, it will be hard to know where to begin.  Clinton and the Hive will ruin him.  He’ll react like three year old, and take down anyone too closely associated with him.  That means you, Senators Johnson, Ayotte, and Portman et.al.

One reason I was wrong about Trump was my belief that Rupert Murdoch and Fox News were conservative, and had the resources to expose the various sordid episodes in Trump’s life when the time came.  But they passed.  They weren’t conservative at all.  Foolish me.  Roger Ailes stands guilty of political treason.  I have more respect for the New York Times, meaning none at all.

When Jeff Bezos bought the WaPo I was intrigued.  His adopted father, whose name he bears, was a refugee from Cuba, like the fathers of Cruz and Rubio.  He has shown a bit of a libertarian streak.  I thought under Bezos the WaPo might distinguish itself from the Hive, and its Queen, the NYT.  But nothing of the sort has really happened.  He’s too busy with Amazon, or really doesn’t care.  Did he notice that Trump accused Rafael of being complicit in the Kennedy assassination?   Does he know the similarities between Rafael Cruz and his own father?  Does the possibility of a man like Trump having a shot at the White House bother him?   All he needs to do is gather his WaPo team and tell them it’s time to win a Pulitzer Prize, and take down Donald Trump now, before the Hive does.  It would make sense, but I suppose it’s like trusting Murdoch and Fox.  Money is what apparently drives these people.  You’d think they would feel some responsibility, if not as journalists, as Americans.  Silly me.

I wrote an article about the 1998 Republican candidate for Governor, a Trump type named John Lindauer, and submitted it to the Washington Examiner.  It’s an interesting story, which I’ll post here in a couple days.  It shows what happens when a political party has integrity.

Let’s say you’re Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, running for reelection.  What’s best for him, embracing Trump, and being forced to defend the indefensible, or supporting the Independent candidacy of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott?  If he supports Abbott, what will all the Trump cultists do, vote for the liberal, Trump-hating Democrat?  Maybe, maybe not.  If Toomey supports Trump, how do the independent women of PA react?  They should be disgusted that any spineless wretch would stoop so low for votes.  What if he just says it’s up to the voters to decide the Presidency, and takes no position?  He wants to return to the Senate to help keep the country half way sane.  It’s a hell of a lot better than being a Trump man.

And what about turnout?  There are a ton of voters who hate both Clinton and Trump, and they’ll stay home.  These are the voters who would cost the Republicans the Senate, and possibly the House.  We need to give these people someone to vote for.  We need an Independent, like Greg Abbott.

When Abbott announced his Texas Plan for nine Amendments through Article V, he said it was clear that the reforms our political system needs can only come from the States, via Article V.  Congress will never enact them, because they disempower the federal government, and thus Congress.  This is a man who has given a great deal of thought to our dire situation, and has the courage and ambition to launch an unprecedented  initiative to deal with it.  He proved to me that he was a serious man, and a patriot.

Will he answer the call of duty?

 

 

Ben Sasse won’t do it, so who do we want to go third party?  Someone with a fresh and exciting message.  An elected official from an important state, where a victory would go a long way toward throwing the election into the House.  A proven conservative, smart and appealing.  The man who fits the bill is Governor Greg Abbot of Texas, running to promote his “Texas Plan”.

He made a big splash when he announced it in January, but he’s got it on hold until next year, when state legislative sessions convene.  It’s like the Convention of States approach, except it’s far better.  Rather than have what is an essentially open Amendment Convention, he has nine specific proposals.  Most importantly, he does not have Congressional term limits.  As important as that is, it’s a deal killer in many state legislatures.  As much as anything, the inclusion of term limits killed any chance of success for the Convention of States.  I’ve been there, personally, and seen it happen.

What it does have is everything else a beating conservative heart could desire.  If adopted, it would save the Republic.  It’s worth fighting for.  The nine Amendments restrict all three branches of the federal government, and empower the States.  Abbott’s a smart guy.  The Texas Plan is a winner.  Regardless of what happens this November, it’s worth fighting for, for a long time.

The way to promote it is to run for President as an Independent.  You don’t need to form a third party.  Just pick a running mate (lots of good choices there) and get on the ballot in as many states as possible.  I haven’t looked into it, but I believe he could get on almost all of them, including, most importantly, Texas.  I think he’s got until the end of June to file in Texas.

And Texas is the key.  If he can win Texas and just a handful of western states, he could deny anyone 270.  The key to winning the electoral votes of the Far West is the Second Sagebrush Rebellion, which is well underway.  The American Lands Council is seeing to that, beginning this summer.  Win Texas, Alaska (an easy one), Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and Colorado and you pull it off.

I really don’t know much about Texas, or Texans.  I’m like Rooster Cogburn, when his young Texas Ranger partner started talking about drinking water out of a boot heel in the sand.  “I’ve never met a Texican yet that didn’t.”  But these people just had some of their own dragged through the mud by the Arsonist.  Most of these people know a little about Ted Cruz and his family.  They didn’t appreciate that unflattering photo of Heidi that he tweeted.  But when he slandered Rafael Cruz, a good man, who many Texans admire, I think he hit a nerve.

Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz know each other very well, going back to their days working together in the Texas Solicitor General’s office.  I’m sure their families know one another. I’m sure Abbott knows Rafael Cruz’s personal life history.  I wonder what Greg Abbott thought about Rafael being labeled an accomplice in the assassination of a President?

An Abbott candidacy could save conservatism.  It would give us all some place to go.  And it would forever ruin any chance of a Trump Presidency.  And I think it could help save the Senate.  There are a lot of states where a Republican Senate candidate would benefit, politically, from spurning Trump, and supporting Abbott.

Romney is said to be considering this.  But we need a fresh horse, one with no baggage, from the key state of Texas.  Everybody could get behind Abbott.

And if it’s thrown into the House, Abbott’s the next President.  There are no electoral votes in the House, and each state is free to vote as it pleases, regardless of the electoral outcome in their state.  It would be over on the first ballot.

There is nothing to prevent any of this from happening.  All it takes is a few good men.  And a lot of good women.

The spring has reached its zenith, and we’ll see summer soon.  If the summer’s like the spring, this is a very special year.

 

When Clinton and the media get done with Trump his candidacy will be a shambles, the Republican Party will be a mess, and someone will need to pick up the pieces.  It’s tempting to become a Libertarian, but it’s too soon.  (Voting Libertarian in November is another matter.)  All we need is another Reagan and we can have a party to be proud of again.

Reince Priebus will want give Trump what he wants, but only with the approval of the RNC, and subject to the will of the National Convention.  I think most of the delegates there will be in no mood to kowtow to Donald Trump.  Winning the nomination doesn’t automatically give you complete control over the party.  Not if half the delegates voting for your nomination think you’re an unqualified jerk.

The Republican Party Platform should reflect the views of the delegates, not Trump.  The Rules should be rewritten not at Trump’s behest, but in the interest of denying anyone like him the nomination again.  The new Party Chairman should not be some Trump puppet like Corey Lewandowski.  The delegates should decide independently.  Ben Carson is out today suggesting Trump consider selecting a Democrat as his running mate.  To hell with that.  The delegates should listen to Trump’s request, and make their own, independent determination.  I’d nominate Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska.

Paul Ryan may get this.  His refusal to endorse Trump is a signal.  If he wants to retain his majority, he’s got to distance himself from Trump.  With Trump, what was once unthinkable  – losing the House  —  is a possibility.  Women, especially independent women, hate Trump with a passion.  And these women don’t know the half of it  — yet.  They’re going to hate him even  more when the media starts telling them stories about him.  This will begin right after Cleveland.  A Republican candidate for Congress who gets on the Trump bus is embracing a candidate who’s going to be absolutely toxic with these women voters.

The delegates to Cleveland have one overriding goal  — separate the identity of the Republican Party from the obnoxious lunatic who just got the nomination.  Once he’s gone, the party will remain.  And the greater distance it has from Donald Trump the better off it will be.

I think I’ve discovered the secret of Trump’s appeal.  He is the exact opposite, in almost every way, of a Bush.  He’s like the anti-Bush.  That’s why people are attracted to him.  I’m reading Impostor, by Bruce Bartlett.   He cuts up Bush 1 and Bush 2 pretty bad.  If you want to know why I can’t stand a Bush, just read it.

In addition to maintaining a separate identity from Trump, we need to find one person we can all get behind for next time.  Maybe that’s not possible.  Nobody jumps out at you right now.  It may well be that Cruz is the new Goldwater, the ground breaker for the eventual winner.  We were lucky in 1964.  We all knew who the guy was, Ronald Reagan.

And it took Reagan two tries before he could win it.  I thought by the lay of the land that 2016 was going to be a Republican landslide.  Thanks to the geniuses at the RNC who devised the 2016 nomination rules, we’ve got a landslide loss looking at us.  But I’d say 2020 will be even better.  Four years from now Clinton will be a worn out disaster of a President, worse than Obama by far.  The country will be a mess, because the politicians in Washington refuse to fix our problems.  It’s too hard, politically.  They’re cowards.

But not Ben Sasse.  He looks like a guy to keep an eye on.  You’ve got to try and look at the bright side.  The big shift in our politics that I’m waiting for may need a substantial shock to the system to get it started, one that gets people really worried.  Something like that will probably happen in the next four years.  I sense rough waters ahead.

 

Article V, to be precise.  The Republican Party, at this point, should be supported on this basis alone.  If the 34 state threshold is reached, a Republican House Majority would aggregate the Resolutions and set a time and place for the Amendment Convention, as would a Republican Senate.  If either body falls under Democratic control, Article V will have to be on hold, on the federal level.

When Trump crashes and burns, he may take the Senate with him, in which case Article V would be unavailable until after the 2018 election.  Delaware rescinded last week (thanks, George Soros) so we’re back down to 28.  Potential pickups (that is, states where Republicans control both chambers) are Arizona, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Wisconsin, South Carolina and Virginia.  All but Montana and Virginia have Republican governors.  If those Governors could be convinced to call special sessions this summer, we could be up to 33 by the end of the summer.  I think, at that point, Gov. Bevin of Kentucky could call his legislature into session, and the razor thin Democratic majority in the House would buckle, getting us to 34 this year.  If necessary, a major drive in Montana could convince their legislature to call itself back into special session.  That would require a media campaign costing a million dollars.

This is not something the BBA Task Force can pull off.  We would need some real heavy hitters to push it.  Like, for instance, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina.  If they all joined together, they could get it done.

When Kasich withdrew today he touched on policy just once, when he said nothing was more important than getting a BBA. He’s right.  These people all know it’s right.  If they want to save this country it’s up to them.  Once the reality of Trump sinks home, and the November electoral disaster is obvious to everyone, they people can be roused to action.

The wave I sensed forming in October of 2013 is as strong as ever.  What I didn’t see was the complexity of the wave.  It includes half the Democratic Party.  They’re as pissed off at the Washington elites as we are, though for slightly different reasons.  Everybody, right and left, can see the naked corruption at work.

I also didn’t foresee the various forms the wave manifested itself in, to wit, Trump, a demagogue.  It shouldn’t be that surprising, when you think about it.  People were even more pissed of than I realized, and they’ve settled on a vulgar celebrity as their champion, as predicted in Idiocracy.  The media made him, and they will break him.  It won’t be pretty, and by the end of it, with President Clinton, practically the whole country will be pissed off.  The Arsonist, as I call him, will tear down as much as he can on his way to defeat.  Yuk.

Since there is no good outcome, we’re heading further downhill.  The economy will continue to stagnate.  For all I know, the market may break.  The case for optimism, and growth, is weak.

We’re still very much in a period of major political transition.  The old order is going to fall.  It’s unsustainable.  We could go the way of Greece and Venezuela, but I doubt it.  We still have the Constitution, with the emergency brake of Article V.

Ted Cruz wanted to break the Washington cartel, but it was too strong for him.  It may be too strong for any constitutional conservative.  It may be that the only way to break it is with Article V.

In the two and a half years I’ve been working on Article V, I’ve always been amazed by the lack of financial support we’ve received, and by the amount of education that needs to be done.  If we had the money we could do the education, and get it done.  I figure we could do it with about half of what Bush spent attacking Rubio.  But all the right wing billionaires don’t seem to be really interested in breaking the Washington cartel.  They sure as hell weren’t with Cruz, and don’t tell me it’s his personality.  He was a threat to everybody who games the system to enrich themselves.

I got involved in the Presidential campaign, at first, to promote Article V.  When Cruz adopted the issue of the transfer of federal lands, around three months ago, I got totally invested in his campaign.  That’s over.  It’s back to Article V.

I just hope it’s not too late.