Month: April 2016

Tucker Carlson took the Hammer’s spot on Special Report today, and truly distinguished himself.  This guy is so dimwitted that it took my  breath away.  Why anyone would listen to this twerp is beyond me.  Maybe women think he’s cute.  Or maybe Roger Ailes has a thing for him.  What a complete imbecile.

He thinks a bunch of really smart Republicans should sit down with Trump to try to make him a better candidate.  Because he’s got the most votes, and therefor, apparently, is deserving of the nomination.   What a fool.

Everyone acknowledges that it should come down to what happens on June 7th, particularly in Cali.    I’ve got a tip for you.  I live in California.  People here are ignorant about politics, to an extent it’s hard for other Americans to believe.  They don’t want to be bothered by it.  It just annoys them.  Eventually, maybe a couple weeks before the election, they’ll start paying some attention.  In the meantime, the weather’s great, and everybody wants to be outdoors.

5238.com has another nifty tool that you can use to see how the Donald is doing on his way to 1237.  Aaron Bycoffe has a piece there called, Can You Get Trump to 1237?  I’ve played around with it, and it’s apparent to me, that even giving the Moron the benefit of the doubt here and there, he can’t do it.  A bridge too far.

The “pros” used by 538.com to estimate Trump’s delegate haul have him winning 93 of the 172 delegates from Cali.  That’s about 52%.  Right now RCP has the Moron up by eight points here.  And nobody is paying too much attention.

Let me tell you about a lot of the women that live out here.   Once they find out about all of Trump’s statements, and behavior, toward women, they’ll want to tar and feather him.  And let me tell you something as a native California guy, raised in Richmond.  We don’t like loud mouthed guys from New York.  It’s a cultural thing.  A lot of people associate it with antisemitism, but Trump’s not Jewish, and he’s the worst stereotype I know of.  People don’t like New York Jews in the same way they don’t like New York gentiles.  It’s the attitude.  It’s like fingernails on a blackboard.

And then there’s this little thing called organization.  53 elections will occur in California on June 7th, in 53 Congressional Districts.  They’re all different.  Some of them like night and day.  A seriously good political team, such as the one with Cruz, can tailor a campaign directed to each of them, almost on an individual basis.  It takes time, planning, and brains, which they have.  Cruz is going to kick Trump’s ass in California.  All Trump’s got is his mouth.

My friend Tim Kelly pointed out an amazing WaPo article by Richard Cohen, reviewing a Jeffrey Goldberg interview with Obama in the Atlantic.  Cohen said his highlighter got worn out reading it.  It was like Obama was revealing himself to be the witless idiot the conservatives have been saying all along.

I know Richard Cohen is just one guy.  But he’s a leading indicator.  And guess what?  Clinton’s policy is the same as Obama’s, except she’s corrupt.  What’s a good liberal patriot to do?

We may get Richard Cohen to start Jews for Cruz.

 

 

 

 

It’s tough when you don’t know what you’re doing.  It happened to me all the time when I first started practicing law.  If you’re quick, and facile, you can B.S. your way through a lot.  But when it comes to serious business, like running for President, you really should know what you’re doing.  And if you’re not sure, either learn or pay someone to show you what to do.

Trump’s ignorance, and egotism, has cost him any chance of the nomination.  He really didn’t have one to begin with.  He was going to be taken down.  But that’s really not necessary now.  The Cruz win in Wisconsin forecloses any possibility of 1237, and if he can’t go to Cleveland with that number, he’ll lose.

It’s just beginning to dawn on the Moron that it’s over.  I saw an ad on TV, asking me to call an 800 number and press “one” if I thought it was unfair to deny Trump the nomination at a contested convention.  Let’s say they get 20 million people to call it.  So what?  Do they think someone cares?  They’re idiots to pay for that ad.

The American Research Group has a poll out showing Trump with a ten point lead in Wisconsin.  538.com rates them as the least accurate of the eight most active pollsters, a C-.  It’s possible Trump paid them for that poll.  Some pollsters are corrupt.  Or it’s an outlier.

I’ll be in Fairbanks on Thursday, April 28th in time to introduce myself to Senator New Dan Sullivan.  Original Dan Sullivan may be Alaska’s next Governor.  He’s a different guy, the son of Alaska pioneer George Sullivan, a contemporary of my Uncle Fritz.

The next day the Convention starts, and I may get a chance to see Crazy Don Young, the man who brought you the Bridge to Nowhere.  What a character.  As a guy, I always liked Don Young.  Lisa Murkowski may be there as well.  I don’t intend to talk to her, but I’ll let her know I’m there.  I see right through her, and she knows it.

There’s three people running for Party Chair, and they’re all Cruz people, so I’m  not worried about that.  I’d be able to work with any of them.  But they need to learn a few things fast about this whole delegate selection  business.  One of them is up to speed, but I’m not sure about the other two.

I’m hoping Robin Taylor can come up as well.  Robin has a lot of friends all over the state.  He’s an old fashioned back slapping politician.  He would have been elected Governor in 1998 except for Crazy John Lindauer.  That was eighteen years ago, but some of those people are still around.

Politics has a lot more might-have-beens, like me and Robin, than it does winners.  But we were contenders.  And we’re still in it.

 

40 years ago Paul Manafort made his bones in Kansas City, directing the Ford forces in their successful delegate fight with Reagan.  He was so good Reagan hired him in 1980.  But things have changed a bit since then, and I’m not at all sure his skill set is what Trump needs right now.  Of course, what Trump needs is a miracle, and the Good Lord, let us hope, will not oblige.

Take Tennessee, where Trump got screwed yesterday by the State Executive Committee.  These guys aren’t Cruz people.  They dislike Cruz, but they hate Trump, and everything he stands for.  They write their own rules.  That’s the way political parties work, or should.  American political parties are not creatures of the state.  They’re independent associations of like minded voters.  The Constitution’s guarantee of the freedom to associate states:  “Congress shall make no law….abridging … the right of the people to peaceably assemble…”.  It’s in the First Amendment.  It’s recognized by the courts.

Some states, unconstitutionally, in  my view, interfere with the interior procedures of political parties.  They justify this because the state, not the parties, pay the cost of primary elections.  But in most states, like Tennessee, the parties are free from state control, and can do any damn thing they please.

Paul Manafort should know that.  There’s nothing he could do.

Likewise in North Dakota. The party regulars are with Cruz, overwhelmingly.  But they’re not Cruz’s agents.  So when they come up with their slate, it will be overwhelmingly for Cruz.  Not just not the people Cruz asked for.  There may not be one Trump vote in the 25 going to Cleveland.

Those are the rules, and that’s the reality, of North Dakota.

Yesterday Cruz swept up six out of six in the 1st and 6th districts of Colorado.  They’re on the outskirts of Denver.  The 2nd contains CU and CSU, but is also pretty rural, and Sen. Kevin Lundberg should pull it off.  The 3rd is Western Colorado  — Cruz country.  The 4th and 5th, eastern and southern Colorado, are hostile terrain for the Moron.  Maybe he’s got a shot in the 7th, western Denver.  If he’s organized there.  I doubt that he is.  The attendees are not members of the public.  They’re Republican Party volunteers.  These are not Trump people.  Most of them have been in the party for a while.

When it’s all said and done, I think Cruz gets 37 out of 37.  Unless Paul Manafort knows something I don’t know.

Who runs the Republican Party of Pennsylvania?  I have no idea.  Except I’ll bet the ranch that he’s not a Trump man.  In fact, very far from it.  This guy, and his buddies from across the state, run that party, and nobody can tell them what to do with it.  Put that in your pipe and smoke it.  They have complete control over 54 of PA’s delegates, and Trump won’t get one of them.  Don’t like it?   Take over the Republican Party of Pennsylvania.  But that takes time, and intelligence, both of which Trump lacks.

The people you see on TV are supposed to be smart.  Actually, many of them are astonishingly ignorant.  They really have no idea of what political parties are.  They think they’re part of the government, somehow, or something.  A political party is an independent political institution.  I know those are long words.  But if you can’t understand them you should just shut up, already.

Royals against the Mets tonight.  Steve Harvey can pitch with the best of them.  I’ve got a feeling this is going to be a good year.

 

 

Nate Silver of 538.com made his bones, for the world to see, calling the 2012 election, and since then smart people pay attention to him.  He’s good at understanding polls.  Beyond that, he’s still learning.

He’s out today with a piece that says if the Moron doesn’t get to 1237 on the first ballot, he’s toast.  Way to go, Nate.  You started looking at something besides numbers.  And, of course, he’s right.  Politico has counted a hundred “Trump delegates” who will abandon him on the second ballot.  That’s the tip of the iceberg.

In a great many states, the actual delegates won by Trump are selected by State Conventions, which are all controlled by party regulars.  These guys all hate Trump, and many of the “Trump delegates” they send to Cleveland are for Trump in name only.   They’re willing to say they’re going to vote for him on the first ballot.  That’s the real extent of their commitment to him.  They’ll toss him like a used Kleenex after that.

This simple fact of political life is, apparently, hard for a lot of people to understand.  The Donald has hired a smart guy named Paul Manafort to take over his delegate operation.  Apparently the simpleton Lewandowski was in charge before.  Trump is not going to like what Manafort tells him, if he’s being honest.  There’s nothing Manafort or anybody else can do.  If this guy wants to, he can milk a bunch of money out of Trump before he tells him the bad news.  But fairly soon the Trump Brain Trust (which seems to exist solely beneath one preposterous comb over) is going to get it.  It’s over.  No 1237.  No nomination.  He’s a loser.

Then what?  Fight on, and lose a fairly close one?  Or fold your tent, save your money, and go back to the fabulous life of sustained self absorption that you love.   But, he’s the  Moron, so you never know.

I want this thing over now, for a number of reasons, so I hope Nate Silver’s words of wisdom are taken seriously.  The sooner the better.  We need to start destroying whatever remote possibility exists of a Clinton 2.  That will be fun.

My campaign to unseat Murkowski in Alaska is looking better and better.  Former Governor Sean Parnell announced today he’s running.  Talk about weak tea.  Mr. milk toast himself.  A moderate Republican against the liberal, Murkowski. Sorry, Sean, but welcome to the race.  You’re not corrupt, so you’re an improvement.  But we can do a lot better.

I always thought Sean was an O.K. guy, just not very strong.  If my scheme doesn’t work, I’ll see if I can help him out.

In a three way nomination fight, Sean can be quite helpful.  He’s a serious candidate, who should run a serious campaign.  We’ll have a hard core Reagan Conservative (my guy), a mainstream moderate, Parnell, and Murkowski, a liberal.  Alaska’s a very red state.  When I was scheming to run state wide, it was always going to be as the most conservative candidate.  The only people who are more conservative than I am are crazy.  I go as far right as you can.  It works in Alaska.

I’ve decided I’ve got to go to Fairbanks at the end of the month for the State Convention.  I’ll need to raise around $2,000.  I should be able to pull that off.

I’ll see a lot of old friends.  I didn’t really say goodbye to anyone when Babbie and I left in 2001.  I was pissed off that I never got a chance to run for Congress.  I’m over that, and can’t wait to see interior Alaska again.

People who live in perfect climates, like Hawaii or San Diego, have a good deal going.  But living in country that has actual seasons, like spring, summer and fall, has its attractions.  It gets too hot in midsummer where I live.  But for the next couple months you get to watch the land come to life.  Living close to nature is the best way to go.

Like Alaska.

 

 

Trump not only won’t get to 1237, Cruz will wind up with more delegates than he does.  That won’t be apparent for a while.  As long as Trump keeps his cool, I’ll give him Rhode Island, Connecticut, most of  Maryland, Delaware, , and 2/3 of New York.   But Cruz gets the lion’s share of Pennsylvania, and the remaining calendar favors Cruz, in  my book.

If he’s still standing, June 7th is the Moron’s date with doom.  Cruz will get all 29 in South Dakota, all 27 in Montana, and 2/3 of New Mexico’s 24.  They add up to a lot more than New Jersey’s 51.

If it comes to that, the decisive blow will be struck in the Six States of California.  The State of Central California, in which I live, has six Congressional Districts, and Jefferson the northernmost part of California, only two, as does South California.  But that’s 30 delegates, all of which should go to Cruz.

Most of California’s population is in the other three States:  Silicon Valley, North California, and West California.  And each Congressional District has its own peculiar mix of political cultures.  Take District 12, Nancy Pelosi’s district.  Very few Republicans.  But based on my own personal experience, I don’t think these San Francisco Republicans are inclined toward misogyny, and thus will find Trump unappealing.

It’s a big, complicated State, and to compete in each Congressional District you approach the voter in somewhat different ways.  Few People really understand all the ins and outs of California politics.  I’m not one of them.  But I do know something about the politics of Central California, and hope to be able to put it to use.

Take a look at Cruz’s California Campaign website.  They are totally organized.  These people have prepared for this, and they’re ready.  And they’re smart.

And Trump, what’s he got?  He’s got nothing, nothing but a loud mouth that people in this part of America don’t like.  Good luck with that.

I guess he’s got a rally in Wisconsin tomorrow.  He and his cultists need to get together to charge each other up.

But he’s starting to take on water, and the rats are getting nervous.