Month: February 2016

Senator Ted Cruz, quoted today about a Balanced Budget Amendment and Article V.

Newest BBA Co-founder Joesph Semprevivo pulled it off.  Biddulph and Fruth met with him a couple months ago on the hunt for donations.  He declined, offering to help in other ways.  This endorsement is more valuable than money.  Cruz gets it, as we knew he would, or, more probably, always did.

I don’t expect Cruz to start talking about this on the campaign trail.  It would be nice if it came up in the debate Saturday, but that’s unlikely.  But when he wraps up the nomination, or Rubio does, and starts looking ahead to November, the case for an Article V BBA is overwhelming.

We should have at least 30 states by then, crossing the threshold of plausibility.  If we’re four short, that would leave six remaining targets, all legislatures completely under Republican control.

Getting these legislatures to call themselves into special session, or having a Republican governor do it, is not too much to ask.  The nominee will be in a position where he will be very hard to say no to.

Think about the politics.  Cruz or Rubio will be triumphant.  Everything they say and do will dominate the news.  In early June, let’s say, the governors of South Carolina, Wisconsin and Arizona  call their respective legislatures into session for the sole purpose of taking up our Resolution.  Big news.  We’re starting the process of amending the Constitution.  And we’re doing it by using Article V for the first time in American history.

As each legislature passes the Resolution, we creep up, 32, 33, and the big one, 34.  This is news.  The Judiciary Committees of the House and Senate have hearings on aggregating the Resolutions  — more news.  Oh, and by the way, we’re wired in these committees.  The House Judiciary will probably move first, and will recommend a time and place for the Amendment Convention.  More news.  What lucky city gets to play host?  The Resolution goes to the House floor, is debated, and voted on.  More news.

What I’m trying to point out is that, as a news story, this thing has legs.  There may be an attempted filibuster in the Senate, requiring a rule change allowing a simple majority vote.  More news.

I think this can all be accomplished by August if the nominee asks for it.  And then it’s part of the fall campaign.  It’s an issue the Democrat will have to address.  Three out of four Americans want a Balanced Budget Amendment.  We’re going bankrupt.  Something needs to be done.  But Hillary can’t support it.  And it will cost her dearly.

And then there’s Article V.  Nobody’s ever heard of it.  It’s not that hard to explain.  It’s a way for the states to control the federal government, designed by the Framers for the exact circumstance we find ourselves in.  People are going to eat it up.  They’re going to say why hasn’t someone done this before, for Pete’s sake?

The Article V BBA elevates out of control federal spending, and an out of control federal government in general, to the top of the campaign agenda.

Good generals always try to fight on terrain that favors them.  The same thing with politicians.  Forcing this on to the national stage, and making it a center piece of a campaign, is smart politics.  Oh, and on the merits it’s just as good.

Continuing his charm tour, I saw the Donald say to a crowd that all these politicians are full of s—.   He knows he’s losing, so he’s got to compensate by playing the bad ass.

Trump has pioneered a new way to draw voters to a political party.  Be so offensive that people come out of the woodworks to vote against you.  That’s what looks like happened in Iowa.  His people showed up, but he inspired more people to show up to vote against him.  This is a formula which can be repeated.

The Cruz endorsement today is a very big deal. Rubio and Cruz are both on board as advocates of Article V.  One of them is going to  be the next President of the United States.  Even if we fall short this year for some reason, we will get it done at the beginning of next year.

Because the President is going to ask for it.

If you love your country you rise to its defense.  Bill McIlvain and his wife Ila are in their 80’s, but that doesn’t mean they’ll sit back and wait for someone else to step up.  If we get Wyoming, it will be in large part due to their efforts.

Bill’s a highly respected former Speaker, and was our entree to the Wyoming legislature.  He was a key member of our effort last year, which fell short in the Senate in the final days of the session.

To improve our chances the McIlvains and BBA Task Force Co-founder Bill Fruth have organized a dinner to be held in Cheyenne Saturday night.  All the legislators have been invited, along with business and government leaders of Cheyenne, and guests will include the Governor, Secretary of State, and U. S. Senator Mike Enzi, an old friend of Bill and Ila’s.  Enzi is held in the highest regard in the State Capitol, and as Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee knows all too well the fiscal cliff we’re rushing toward.  He’s strongly in favor of a Balanced Budget Amendment, and his unofficial endorsement will be invaluable.  Sen. Enzi, out of professional courtesy, does not tell Wyoming legislators how to vote on legislation.  But having him there is a strong signal, and should put us over the top.

It’s a steep hill to climb.  This is a short, 20 day, budget session, and a 2/3 vote is needed to even consider a bill not directly related to the budget.  They convene on Monday, and the vote will probably be on Tuesday.  This is the Task Force’s first big test of the year.  Bill will be in the Capitol, working the vote.

Everybody can do something.  Bill McIlvain is doing all he can, and it’s a lot.

I was going to take a break from Presidential politics, and get back to the Article V campaign, but, naturally, the Donald makes this thing too hard to resist talking about.  I think he’s losing it.  I think he’s setting up his exit.  The idea of him actually getting elected is insane, and I think he’s understanding that now, if he always hasn’t.  He’s tired of spending his own money.  He needs to get out in style, with a bang, not a whimper, but how does he do that?  Losing in Iowa was always going to cost him in the polls, and today’s tantrum about Iowa voting fraud is just going to make it worse.   Our Principles Pac is loading up on him, and my hunch is that they’re raking in big money.  They will be working in a target rich environment.  The list of potential lines of attack against Trump is long, and juicy.

The standard line on New Hampshire is that half the voters make up their mind in the final week.  As they watch this childish behavior, just as they watched him flip off the only Iowa debate, they have got to be thinking:  this man cannot be allowed anywhere near the levers of actual power.  Even half-hearted members of the cult aren’t going to like this.  Soon, very soon, it could be down to Cruz and Rubio.  I, personally, am loving it.  I’ll take either one in a heart beat.  And they’re both plenty savvy enough to see the political appeal of Article V.

I think I saw somewhere that Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.  He is, of course, the recipient of any number of awards, including membership in the World Wrestling Hall of Fame.

When I started practicing law in Alaska in 1974 one of the most renowned attorneys was a guy named Wendell Kay.  I never got to know Wendell very well, but the stories about this guy were amazing. I became good friends with his private investigator, Keith Getty, and he told me some good ones.

In a big murder trial where all he had was a fanciful defense, Wendell was on voir dire, and he was asking potential jurors if they ever watched roller derby or wrestling on television.  Keith asked him why.  He said if they believe that, they’ll believe anything.

It was fun for a while, Donald.

 

If there is to be a true decision point, or schwerpunkt, for Cruz in New Hampshire he and his super-pacs have got to go all in, and he’ll need some help from the New Hampshire Union-Leader.  His fight against the Washington cartel now features a poster child example of crony capitalism — ethanol  — that he alone among serious Republican candidates had the guts to fight and defeat in Iowa.  If you won’t take on ethanol in Iowa, what special crony interest will you fight, and where?  Will you take on Big Oil in the oil patch, or Big Sugar in Florida and Louisiana,  or Big Pharma in New England?  If you sell out to Big Corn, why won’t you sell out to anyone who you need politically?

I want a schwerpunkt because I want this thing over, with either Cruz or Rubio winning.  The nominee can then begin thinking about the general.  Beginning with Kasich, we at the BBA Task Force have had a lot of lip service from candidates, but little in the way of actual help.  (Kasich excepted.  He has made the calls and worked the legislatures.  But he never campaigned on it, to my knowledge.)  Rubio and then Bush have both mentioned us recently, and support us, but don’t campaign on the issue.  These guys are smart, and I accept that this is not an issue that resonates with primary voters.  I mean, in the Republican Party, who’s not for a Balanced Budget Amendment?  How does this issue separate you from the field?  It doesn’t.

But in the general, against any Democrat, it’s a beauty.  In fact, I am as confident about this issue’s appeal as I am about anything in politics.  But what we’ll be asking of our Cuban-American nominee is not that he campaign on the issue, but that he help us get to 34.  There’s a fair chance we come up short this year without that assistance.  In our target states of South Carolina, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho and Arizona we have a Republican Governor.  If any of these states come up short, the Governor has the power to call the legislature in to special session to deal with this issue alone.  If the nominee calls any one of these governors and asks them to do it, chances are very high they would.  And under the spotlight of public attention in a special session, the ridiculous objections to our Resolution melt like summer snow.  If the nominee will give us this help, we get to 34, Congress sets a time and place for the Amendment Convention and the nominee can rightfully claim credit for helping bring about the first successful use of Article V in American history.

And it is Article V itself, rather than the subject matter of the Amendment Convention, where the greatest political potential lies.  I view Article V as nothing less than an instrument for the dismantlement of the federal government.  People hate the federal government.  They want it cut down to size and put in its place.  I think there is a lot of anger at the feds that can be tapped into.  And any one with a room temperature IQ knows that Congress will never, ever, ever, do anything serious about this.  They’re part of the problem, not the solution.  The solution, Article V,  was placed in the Constitution for this specific purpose.

In the general election the Republican can talk about using Article V as an end run around Congress, which, of course, is precisely what it is.  Passing a Balanced Budget Amendment is just for openers.  Cruz wants to abolish the IRS.   If Congress won’t do it, ask the state legislatures to call an Amendment Convention to propose the repeal of the 16th Amendment.

The President can use Article V as a weapon against Congress.  The Congress that absolutely everyone in the country hates.  That’s why he supports the Article V BBA, and that’s why he chose to exercise his leadership, even when only a nominee, to get it passed.

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are very smart men.  They’re both the strongest conservative we’ve had since Reagan, by far.  They know they’re in for a fight with Congress.  My hope is that we get a chance to make this case to them after they wrap this up.  I bet they’re buyers.

A schwerpunkt is unlikely, as I’m well aware.  But if we can somehow settle this in March there will still be time.

How do you spell relief?  Iowa.  And one man in particular, Rep. Steve King of the 4th district, where most of the ethanol is made, and the corn grown.  Cruz carried this district big, and King won it for him.  Next time anybody makes a crack about the greedy corn farmers of Iowa, I’ve got a response.  Gov. Bransted was right, and these guys knew it.  Electing Cruz was a very bad idea for ethanol, and their pocket books. But their pastors told them the godly thing to do was vote for Cruz.

They chose God over Mammon.

 

The article to American Thinker on proportional, or instant runoff, voting that I was going to write based on a misperception.  I thought winner take all was the rule after March 1st.  It’s not.  Each state decided if they wanted winner-take-all or proportional.  All but a couple of the remaining caucus states are proportional, so Trump won’t win all their delegates if he gets a plurality.  But there are a lot of winner-take-all primaries.

This is the scenario I’m worried about:   Trump wins all of Florida’s delegates with 35% of the vote.  If that happens, and it’s determined that similar results in remaining winner-take-all states are likely, the RNC will need to change its rules to allow those states to switch to proportional.  Because if, say, Rubio gets 34% in Florida, and Cruz gets 31%, neither one will drop out, and Trump can go on to win the nomination with the support of a 35% rump of the party.

Up to now I’ve thought a Trump presidency would be a mess, but this article in Politico makes me think it might be worse than a mess.  Trump had this whole thing planned.  He knew what his tactics were going to be, but hadn’t really worried about the issues.  The line about Mexican rapist immigrants he made up on the fly.  He’s a true demagogue.  The fact that he’s come as far as he has is truly disturbing.  I get the sense, from talking to people around the country today, that this feeling is widely held.  People are truly concerned, and, collectively, we’re going to see that it doesn’t happen.  This is not the Weimar Republic, for God’s sake.  Thank God we’ve got the long, drawn out nomination process we’ve got.  Demagogues don’t wear well, generally speaking.

I’ve been following this race pretty closely for a year, and I feel like I’m getting burned out.  But now that the voting has begun, things will move pretty quickly.

It’s becoming more clear than ever that whoever does emerge from the Republican scrum, that guy is the next President.  Even if Hillary survives Sanders, and the FBI doesn’t recommend prosecution, she is absolutely staggering to her coronation.  She’d lose in an historic landslide.  And Sanders wouldn’t do much better.  Has a modern political party ever had as sorry a pair of Presidential front runners than Clinton and Sanders?  They’re both a couple of used up dinosaurs.  Going against a vigorous Hispanic-American Senator in his forties.  It’s crazy.  We couldn’t blow this if we tried.

Emerson’s out with a poll showing the top three all bunched together in the low 20’s.  So maybe Cruz could win.  Then the schwerpunkt strategy can be attempted.

I happened to hear Pat Buchanan on the Sean Hannity show.  I always liked Pat.  He said he’s off the booze, and sticks with the vino.  He said he can’t remember having as much fun in a campaign.  Neither can I, brother.

Nobody knows anything, and never has.  It’s good to see all the talking heads admit it, for once.

 

Unless she’s uncharacteristically missed something, or was too soon to pick up a last minute surge, Ann Selzer’s numbers are the ones to expect.  I think it’s reasonable to believe that Cruz’s superior ground game will close the five point gap somewhat.  And Rubio has a little sizzle going into the weekend, which could up his percentage.  But I’m going to assume we have three winners coming out of Iowa, Trump, Cruz and Rubio.

I’m a happy camper.  I am not really concerned about the Donald getting the nomination.  But he’s capable of giving the election to the D’s by running third party.  The longer he’s in this, the less likely that becomes.  So he can have a narrow win in Iowa and it’s not that big of a deal.  He whored for ethanol, and it worked.  People in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada already know and hate ethanol, because they drive cars.  As they learn more about the way this farce has been stuffed down their throats by the politicians of Iowa, and their new Ethanol Man, Trump will pay a steep price for selling out the rest of the country for Iowa votes.

Speaking of which, I caught Iowa Gov. Bransted as a guest member of the Fox Sunday News panel — very unusual.  Chris Wallace was begging him to endorse Trump over Cruz.  His earlier treatment of Trump was soft.  He was much harder interviewing Cruz.  Team Fox is obviously still all in with Rubio, soon to be joined by the Wall Street Journal.  I don’t think they’re worried about Trump any more than I am.  If Rubio fades, and it comes down to Cruz or Trump, they go with Cruz.  I have a lot of respect for Roger Ailes’ political smarts, and I’m heartened to know he’s not worried about Trump either.

Bransted was brought on to help Trump in Iowa, and maybe he did.  But he was a total turn off to the rest of the country.  We get it, Governor, ethanol is really great for Iowa. The rest of us just have to pay for it, in more ways than one.

I haven’t drilled down into the numbers from Selzer, but Harry Enten of 538.com has.  One thing he saw was interesting.  Trump’s “very favorables”  — members of the Cult   –have been steady since August, ranging from 25 to 27%.   Perhaps his real core of support tops out right about there.

Another thing Enten saw was a head to head between Cruz and Trump, with Cruz winning 53-35.  Makes perfect sense to me.  This got me thinking, and I’ll be submitting an article on the Republican Party’s Trump Card.  The idea is to adopt proportional, or instant runoff voting, in the states which still have time to make the switch.  The law of every state is different, along with the political balance in the State Capitol, so there are at most eighteen states where this could still be done.  Caucus states can do it by simply adopting a party rule. Primary states would need to change the law.

John Hinderaker of the popular blog Powerline is the new President of Minnesota’s Center for the American Experience.  The Task Force thinks we’ve got a shot in Minnesota this year, and will be asking for his backing.

They had Ann Selzer on one of the TV talk shows this morning.   What a nice, refreshing woman.  As American as apple pie.  I want Trump to lose, but I don’t want to spoil her moment in the sun.  I’m conflicted.

If you think this proportional voting idea is pie in the sky you’re wrong.  At least in Alaska, where I’m familiar with the law, and the party rules.  In ’96 I suggested a straw poll at our precinct caucuses.  I figured we could get some Presidential candidates to come up.  Nobody thought it would work, but I talked them into it.  A political party can almost do any damn thing it pleases, including adopting proportional voting at the last minute.

Our straw poll was a big hit, and I got to interview the candidates on my radio show.  And Pat Buchanan owes me a beer.