Month: January 2016

NRO’s John Fund writes that Ted Cruz is refusing to kiss King Corn’s ring.  That has a familiar ring to it, and I’m flattered.  Kudos to Fund for seeing the merits of this story.  Contained within is the seed of the Cruz schwerpunkt in New Hampshire, whereby he springboards from a big win in Iowa, vaulting to a late breaking win in the Granite State, and an overwhelming advantage for the nomination.

Here’s the link to my piece in American Thinker, including a little editing by JR Dunn, which I appreciate.  A couple hundred commenters so far, and very little in the way of defending New York values, even from the normally voluble Trump contingent.

Trump’s running around, waving the bloody shirt of 9-11, and he may think he’s holding his own on this kerfuffle.  I’m betting he’s making the first big mistake of his campaign, and it will cost him.  It could be that his attachment to New York City  — which he seems to identify with, personally  —  blinds him to the negative reaction people have to the phrase “New York values”.

I suspect the Cruz camp  — campaign or Super-pac — is using social media in Iowa to circulate the tape of Trump endorsing partial birth abortion.  I bet it works.

I saw a picture of one of Cruz’s daughters at the debate, and initially thought she’s a cute little girl.  But then it dawned on me, that she is not of my kith or kin, but is instead part of the great wave of Hispanics and others that are in the process of turning me into a minority in my own country.  To conservative old white guys like me, this girl is demographic threat.  But then I looked at that picture again, and figured what the hell.  Maybe it won’t  be so bad.

Is Big Corn about to back off from Cruz in Iowa?  They’ve been stalking him, and if he’s managed to appease them it could be very significant.

Kevin D. Williamson of NRO is always worth reading, but today he’s showing his urban provincialism.  He thinks dissing New York is a mistake.  What is this normally sensible man thinking?  Maybe he lives there, which is his problem.  Anyway, partly in reply to Williamson I put an article in to American Thinker on Noo Yawk, Noo Yawk.

As expected, Cruz is pushing back on the whole NY, NY thing.   Five days ago I pointed out the Meet the Press video on Trump and New York values, and the Cruz campaign is putting it to good use.  I’m not implying they picked up on it on this blog.  I only mention it because, well, actually I like giving myself a little credit.  And for new readers who think I’m some kind of whack job it shows my thinking is in line with the Cruz campaign.  In fact, it’s a little scary.  It’s like I’m channeling these guys.

Here’s piece from NRO by David French that shows why the Bush 3 campaign tactic of showing that Trump’s not a real conservative was useless.  As he says, a lot of Republican voters aren’t Chamber or Tea Party  — they’ve just been run out of the Democratic Party.  They’ve been shown the door, and have walked out.  But that doesn’t mean they’re conservative, except, perhaps, in the cultural sense.  And their culture has nothing to do with that of Donald Trump’s New York.  Ergo, attacking The Donald on New York values is smart not just with evangelicals.

I read somewhere that  Cruz screwed up by giving the Donald an opening to talk about New York heroism on 9-11.  Wrong, IMHO.  He may or may not have anticipated the line Trump was using, but it didn’t matter.  Letting Trump score a point in a debate is a price worth paying to get the whole discussion started on New York vs. the rest of America.  I’ll bet there are a lot of people in Iowa think anyone who’d live in New York City is crazy.  That’s the way we felt about them in Alaska when I lived there.

And, of course, everybody in New York thinks anyone living in Alaska is a nut.

There’s a word for that:  diversity.  We’re a big country, with room enough for both Alaska and New York City.   In Alaska nobody worries about what’s going on in New York.  But when Alaskans want to develop their natural resources the environmentalists in New York raise hell about it.  They see pictures of polar bears on PBS and get all fired up.  They want Alaska to be a park, and the residents all a bunch of park rangers.  New York is not popular in the West, where I’ve lived all my life.  And Donald Trump is New York down to his bones.

Two hundred years ago, fresh off his victory in New Orleans, Andrew Jackson returned to the Hermitage and his cotton plantation.  The American economy was just coming under the control of the Second Bank of the United States, created in 1816 to replace the First, whose charter had expired in 1811.  For twenty years thereafter Jackson fought the eastern money interests.  It was one of the animating reasons behind his politics.  When the Bank’s charter came up for renewal, it was passed by Congress and vetoed by President Jackson, killing it.  The election of 1832 centered on that veto.  Jackson won easily.

The moral of today’s history lesson is that the eastern money interests  — epitomized today by New York City, its bankers, politicians and values  —  have been disdained by the rest of the country for a long, long time.

My fingerspitengefuhl is whispering to me, telling me Trump will not win Iowa, and Cruz will.  He could win it big.  If he does, he’s going to be hard to stop.

If I could have made it there, I could have made it anywhere.  But when I got out of law school in 1974 I gave up any hope of getting to the top of the hill, and being king of the heap.  I went north, to Alaska, not to the city that never sleeps.

That’s what most of us do  —  we’d rather live in Cut and Shoot, Texas than New York City.  But New Yorkers take perverse pride in living with eight million other people all squished together.  I spent a few days there in 1968 and couldn’t see the attraction.  Really different folks, really different strokes.

So while the Donald won the little debate skirmish with Cruz about the Big Apple, if it turns into a war he’ll lose.  New York City is sui generis, unlike any other place in the country, and always has been.   In American Nations, Colin Woodard makes this case persuasively, calling NYC the New Netherlands to emphasize its distinctiveness.

Because it has always been America’s financial center the American people don’t trust New York City.  We, the people, in the hinterlands, produce the tangible wealth of this country through hard labor.  The shysters on Wall Street are able to manipulate the markets to cut themselves in on the lion’s share of this wealth, and mock us as ignorant rubes while they do it.  This is not popular.

All Cruz needs to do, whenever the appropriate opportunity presents itself, is to talk a little bit about the culture and politics of New York City.  The list is long.  He could do one shtick just on all the various and sundry taxes City residents pay, and the massive spending it supports.  What does NYC spend on schools, and what does it have to show for it?   How many live births, versus abortions?  He could talk about violent crime, and gun control, New York style.  Economic development, the middle class squeeze, rent control, on and on the list goes, never ending.

This, of course, is not an attack on the long suffering people of New York.  Rather, it is an indictment of the ruling class, of which the Donald is so prominent a member.

Winning New York’s electoral votes is in no GOP electoral battle plan, so risking offense to Gotham voters is worth doing.  I hope Cruz road tests this theme, maybe inserting a few one liners in his stump speech about New York vs. the rest of America.  Barry Goldwater went too far when he said he’d like to saw off the eastern seaboard and let it drift into the Atlantic.

He should have just sawed off New York City.

 

 

Pleased to see the Cruz  campaign put out the hit on partial birth abortion.  I’ve assumed these people were up to speed.  It’s reassuring to see that they either had this video in the can or were quick enough to find and use it. Iowans can now choose between Trump and partial birth abortion, or Cruz and the end of the Renewable Fuel Standard.  Their choice.

The BBA Task Force’s newest Co-founder is Joseph Semprevivo, CEO of Joseph’s Lite Cookies and the Economic Development Commissioner of New Mexico.   When Joseph was a kid with diabetes he made some sugar free ice cream that was so good he and his parents began selling it commercially.  They switched to cookies and now make about 14 million a day.

Joseph has discussed our project with Arizona Gov. Ducey, and if all else fails we will request that the Governor call a special session devoted to our Resolution.  Former Senate President Russell Pearce advises that current Senate President Andy Biggs would then be forced to allow a floor vote.   No one has been able to have any impact on Biggs.  He will kill our bill in regular session, and there’s nothing we can do about it.  But if we’ve reached 32 or 33, and Arizona could get us over the top, the Governor will be able to justify calling a special session.  They’re fairly routine in Arizona.  Welcome aboard, Joseph.

Semprevivo* also has a close connection with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who recently made a big splash coming out for Article V.  Abbott is the former Attorney General who worked hand in glove with Ted Cruz when Cruz was Solicitor General.  If Abbott can’t convince Cruz of the merits of Article V, no one can.

Looking at things from Cruz’s perspective, I can see why he’s being cagey.  There are whack jobs like Andy Biggs who fear Article V.  There aren’t very many of them, but every vote counts.  If Cruz came out for Article V he’d lose them.  And what would he, personally, gain?  Kasich is the BBA Task Force’s most prominent champion, and Rubio is all in with the Convention of States.  So where does Cruz go, and what does he get out of it?

This is all a purely political analysis.  On the merits, we’ll get Cruz.  He’s bright enough to figure that out in a heartbeat.  But it may not happen until he’s starting to wrap it up.  The sooner the better.

Democratic Rep. Walt McLeod of Little Mountain, South Carolina is the key subcommittee vote in the South Carolina House.    Walt’s a Blue Dog, one of the very last.  He’s 79, and calling it a career after 20 years.  If we can get his vote we’ll pass the House, and take some momentum into the Senate.  If you know any body down in Little Mountain ask them to give Walt a call in support of our Resolution.

We’re live in Kentucky, as House Minority Whip Jim DiCesare has filed HCR 50.  The Tea Party Express is now totally on board, and have been promised a meeting with Gov. Bevin by the end of the month.  If Bevin buys in, and we flip one more House Democrat, we’ll get Kentucky.

We’re also live in Virginia, filed in House and Senate.  We’re setting up events for legislators in most of these states, usually in conjunction with the Tea Party Express.

Idaho Speaker Bedke is supposed to be having a talk with Sen. Bart Davis this week.  A lot will depend on that little chat.

Watching the debate last night I thought about how Hillary would have fared matched up against Rubio, or Cruz, or Christie, or even Trump.  She’d be humiliated.  Any of these guys would chew her up.  And debates matter.  Remember the first Romney-Obama?

I don’t think the debate changed anything.  The most important thing, to me, was the tone of the Cruz-Trump exchanges. They were tough, but civil, Cruz referring to Trump as “my friend.”  The smartest thing Cruz did was applaud when the Donald did his riff on 9-11.  Cruz lost the whole “New York” exchange, but that’s not all bad.  He did it gracefully, showing that he doesn’t think he has to win every time.  To Trump, I think that’s important.  And we want Trump.

As for the others, they all did well enough to keep fighting, with the exception of Carson, who needs to leave, soon, and gracefully.  But there are six serious contenders in New Hampshire, at least in their minds.  Four in the “establishment” lane, plus Cruz and Trump.  Ideally, for Cruz, the four centrists would all run neck and neck, allowing him to win with a fairly small plurality.

Hey, it could happen.

 

*It means everlasting life.  Why didn’t I have a name like that?

An even bigger dope, like Bush 3.  Here’s Murphy’s latest shot at Rubio.  These two deserve each other.  Jeb just figured out that voters are angry this year.  What a mind!  Murphy will wind up blowing over $100 million and have absolutely nothing to show for it, other than besmirching the Bush family brand.  And unlike Bush 3, Marco’s going to be around for a while, even if he loses.  You see, unlike the Bushes, he’s a natural politician, and a guy that people like, personally.  If Cruz is smart he’ll ask Marco to be his VP.  Murphy and Jeb are sore losers, and nobody likes seeing that.  They will pay a price for this.

And then I read “The Establishment” is arranging for Bush and Christie to go all tag team on Rubio in the debate tonight.  Brilliant!  Two rejects ganging up on the one “establishment” candidate who still has a prayer.

Even though Ross Douthat writes for the NYT, he is not a cockapoodle conservative.  His blog post on immigration is very  much worth reading.   This guy’s good.

Around a week ago I suggested shorting Hillary.  I need to start taking my own advice.  I could have picked up a quick 10% return.  In the last week she’s down to 50% from 55%.  This is still a good bet.  I think most of the money in these betting sites is from foreigners who really don’t understand American politics.   Read The Economist to see what I mean.  To them the Second Amendment is bizarre, a sign of a strange country.

Nate Silver and gang are in Iowa, which for some reason has got Nate off his feed.  First he couldn’t decide if Cruz’s glass is half empty or half full.   Now he’s not sure if it’s too soon or too late for Marco Rubio.  And then he was denied entry to Trump campaign HQ in Iowa.  Fashion tip to the whole 538 crew:  put on a suit, it makes people think you’re serious.

I read Fox News First every day, and Chris Stirewalt normally has some good insights.  Not today, when he says Cruz has no choice but to go after Trump.  Wrong, wrong, wrong.  Cruz must defend himself vigorously if attacked, of course.  But unloading broadsides at the Donald would be crazy.  Cruz wants all the Trump votes, and that includes a lot of people who really like Trump.  Not warts and all, because they don’t see any warts.  Taking a little shot at the New York, New York candidate is fine.  But no fighting words.

Cruz has been perfect with Trump so far, and it’s working.  Trump continues to say nice things about him, recently stating that Cruz has been “… respectful of my ideas and my whole being.”  Think about those words, coming from a man as insecure as Donald Trump.  He wants his whole being  — himself, Donald Trump, the man  — respected.  If you do that, he’ll treat you right.  Cruz has done it so far.  He’d be a fool to change.

More weak tea thrown at Cruz.  He disclosed these Goldman Sachs loans, they’ve never been hidden from the public in any way.  A flawed FEC report is not a scandal, it’s a one day story.  I think both Cruz and Rubio are clean.  They’ve been careful, and they’re smart.  Nobody’s got anything on either of them.

I couldn’t find a way to send in audience questions to the debate, but the Task Force is still hoping for some Article V action.  I think as the field gets smaller the range of topics covered at these debates will expand, and they’ll eventually get around to us.  The sooner the better.

As the foremost, and, to my knowledge, only advocate of the Cruz Schwerpunkt in New Hampshire, I’ll be looking for ethanol tonight, and the Renewable Fuel Standard.  Opportunity time for Felito, but one calling for a surgeon’s touch.  He must defend the fuel, while condemning the Standard.  First order of business is to address the Iowa voters who have asked him this same question, and not to deviate one iota from what he’s said before.  But here’s where it’s tricky.  If he starts to condemn the RFS too strongly, as an example of the Washington cartel at work — which, of course, it is  — he could hurt himself in Iowa.  Better to hold fire.  Don’t tip your cards at this point.

Cruz doesn’t need to win this debate.  He just doesn’t want to lose it.