Month: January 2016

We’re live in Virginia.    Our man there, Delegate Jim LeMunyon, is confident of passing the House, but the leadership doesn’t want to schedule a vote on a controversial bill unless there’s an assurance it will also pass the Senate.

Our Senate sponsor is Emmett Hanger, who’s co-chairing Finance this session.  It’s a 21-19 split, and approaches are being made to Democrats, but I’m skeptical.  The more likely way to a majority is with every single Republican, but that means we have to get Sen. Dick Black.  He doesn’t like Article V.

As you might imagine, any guy who calls himself Dick Black is something of a bad ass, being a Marine pilot in Vietnam who retired as a colonel.  My suggestion, which I hope is followed up by those in contact with him, is that we ask Retired Admiral, and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Tom Moore to call him.  Moore is working with us because he believes the greatest threat to the American military is the looming national bankruptcy which will destroy our ability to adequately defend ourselves.  An old jarhead like Black would give a respectful listen to a man like Moore.  They’re peas from a pod.  We’ll try everything we can think of to persuade Sen. Black.  I really don’t think we get Virginia without him.  The Virginia General Assembly adjourns on March 12th, so we don’t have a lot of time.

For its first attack ad on the Donald, the Cruz campaign (or his Pacs) is talking eminent domain.  I wonder how many people know what eminent domain is.  If you do, it’s an effective ad.  It’s well made.  Whoever is doing his ads is a pro.  They’ve got a lot of material to work with.  I’d like to see a montage ad, blending in a whole bunch of Trump’s statements, in brief.  When he told Chuck Todd he’s in favor of affirmative action, it only takes 10 seconds. Likewise his support of eminent domain, and partial birth abortion and gay marriage.  I’d string all those statements together, one after the other, and end with Cruz asking a question.  “Those are Donald Trump’s values.  They’re not mine.  Are they yours?”

I put in a piece to American Thinker on Trump and ethanol.  This is the ad that needs to be made, and if it’s properly done could turn some votes.  I know I’m something of an ethanol pest, but watching the Donald take the stage at the meeting of the Renewable Fuels Association was, to me, disgusting.  He’d cut his deal with these guys, and they’re all thick as thieves.  They’re all proud of themselves, especially Trump.  He cut a deal.  That’s what he does.  And then, for the first time that I’ve seen, he reads from a script to begin his address.  It’s a script that was written for him by Big Corn, in which he calls for increasing the Renewable Fuel Standard.

Here’s the deal.  Trump gets votes, and the ethanol industry not only gets to keep on ripping off the taxpayer and consumer, but they get to do more of it!  What’s not to like?  Everybody wins.

That’s how the Donald deals.

 

 

So Trump is deflecting accusations of being an “establishment” favorite by referencing his endorsement by Palin.  And Sarah Palin, everybody knows, is the enemy of the establishment.

Except in Iowa in 2010.  Prominent evangelical conservative Bob Vander Plaats was mounting a Tea Party challenge for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.  His main opponent was former Gov. Terry Branstad, the establishment candidate.  Palin’s endorsement of Branstad helped him edge above 50%, while Tea Party candidate Vander Plaats got 41%, or 93,000 votes.

How many of those 93,000 Iowans will caucus a week from Monday, and how many remember how shabbily their man was treated by the Trump loving Palin?

Maybe they need to be reminded.

In politics, there is a cost to the truth, and politicians don’t like paying it.  But right now this country needs to hear the truth, even if it’s unpleasant.  Before we can deal with the realities we face, we need to talk honestly about them.

The members of the Republican Club of the Senate are united in their dedication to their incumbency.  Favors are exchanged, logs rolled, and backs scratched, all to assure the members of the club get reelected.  It’s the one thing they all agree on, passionately.

In February of 2014 the issue of the moment was the debt ceiling, and Obama’s demand that he get a “clean” bill increasing it.  No Republican wanted to vote for this bill, politically.  It was a complete surrender to Obama, a betrayal of Republican principle, and another great pile of debt placed on future generations.  So the leaders of the Republican Club, who had agreed to this, asked all the members to vote for a “unanimous consent” resolution which would relieve them from having to cast a vote for it.  This resolution was strictly procedural, so there was no way to tie the debt ceiling vote to it.

Cruz said no.  If you want to give Obama a clean bill increasing the debt, you’ll have to vote for it.  From that day forward, Ted Cruz had no friends in the Club.  He was expelled, informally.  He had broken a cardinal rule.  He had forced them to tell the truth.

To win Iowa, Cruz needs to be honest with the voters there, just as he was honest in the Senate.  And the truth is that five years from now, when he proposes eliminating the Renewable Fuel Standard, ethanol may or may not prove to be a viable alternative fuel.  And if it can’t meet the test of the market place, it will have to find another way to survive.  And if the industry were to fade five years from now it would have a substantially negative impact on a large part of Iowa’s economy.  That’s the cold hard truth.

But here’s the other side of the truth.  The Renewable Fuel Standard is crony capitalism.  It’s the government picking economic winners and losers.  It’s taxing the whole country to subsidize a narrow sector of the economy.  It represents the kind of wasteful spending that’s driving us toward bankruptcy.  If you’re going to run for President on a pledge of cutting the federal government down to size, and you don’t oppose the RFS, you’re a hypocrite.

And that’s what Cruz is running on: cutting the federal government down to size, eliminating entire departments and agencies, including the IRS.  How can he campaign on that platform and not oppose RFS?  He can’t.

And Ted Cruz won’t.  Because he’s telling the truth.  And the truth is the American people are crying out for the federal government to be brought under control.  Some surveys have it as the biggest problem facing the country.  And the people of Iowa feel the same way about the federal government as the rest of the country does.  The question for them is, which is more important?  Are they ready to accept the federal government as is, as long as they get their ethanol subsidy?  Or will they put that industry at risk, in order to save their country?

A lot rides on the answer to that question.

 

Here’s the link to my piece in today’s American Thinker.  She’s losing the white working class, and with it the Midwest in the general.  But she’s doubling down on issues these voters dislike intensely, and her close bond with Obama makes it worse.  All the ingredients for a blow out in November are coming together.

It looks as though Rubio has decided on a 3-2-1 strategy, settling for third in Iowa, and hoping for second place in New Hampshire and a win in South Carolina.  It makes sense for him.  He was the only one with an outside shot at Iowa, other than Trump and Cruz.  The stakes are very high, because this year Iowa may be the key to the nomination.  A big Cruz win could very well propel him to a second victory in New Hampshire (the schwerpunkt) which in turn would make him the prohibitive favorite.  If Trump wins in Iowa, he can credibly say that he can win anywhere.  Follow up wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina would make him all but unstoppable.

So now it’s game on, one on one, may the best man win.  Academic types bemoan the way we choose our Presidents, but Iowa, this year, is as good a place as any to sort out this field.  These voters are as well informed as any, and committed to their civic duty.  A lot of them take the time to see the candidates in person, a great way to evaluate them.  Iowa is part of the American Midlands, which traditionally decides our national elections.

And then there’s ethanol.  Trump has shown Iowa voters a first hand example of his “art of the deal.”  He’ll feed taxpayer money to the ethanol industry in exchange for votes.  A pretty simple, straightforward deal.  In terms of their own economic self interest, it’s a good deal for Iowans.

As for the rest of us, tough.  That’s politics, baby.  You can’t make a deal without breaking some eggs.  Idealism is for suckers.  Ask any New Yorker.

I had to do a lot of driving yesterday, so I tuned into talk radio.  Mark Levin apparently just realized that Cruz is virtually alone in condemning the ethanol subsidy, or Renewable Fuel Standard.  I gather Levin has been even handed in his treatment of Cruz and Trump, but not so yesterday.  He realizes that ethanol is a perfect example of crony capitalism, and that Trump is acting out of pure political expediency.  Levin is the brightest of all these conservative hosts, and I expect most of the others will follow his lead.  If talk radio turns on Trump, it’s a very big deal.

One of Levin’s callers from Iowa downplayed the significance of the Palin endorsement.  A lot of Tea Party voters are still upset with her for endorsing Branstad for Governor in 2010.  The caller said Iowa Tea Partiers refer to him as Governor Braindead, and the fact that he used the Palin endorsement to turn back Tea Party and evangelical candidate Bob Vander Plaats has not been forgotten.  Vander Plaats, of course, is the political leader most identified with Iowa evangelical conservatism, and one of Cruz’s most prominent supporters.

I read and see ethanol now being discussed in detail, all over the place, all of which benefits Cruz.  He’s bringing it up in town halls in New Hampshire, laying the groundwork for the schwerpunkt.  I saw Steve Hayward on Special Report say that he’s talked to knowledgeable people in Iowa who tell him that Cruz will actually be helped by the criticism he’s receiving from Gov. Branstad.  I can believe it.  Even if you’re in Iowa, you know damn well this ethanol mandate is a special interest payoff.  I’ve actually talked to some people from Iowa, and they seemed pretty sheepish about the whole thing.

Cruz is under the gun in Iowa.  He’s an existential threat to Big Corn, and they’ll do everything they can to stop him.  These guys are intelligent, experienced and well funded.   They’re locals, always a huge edge.  Since big money is involved, we can’t rule out the possibility of some kind of foul play.

The media can’t resist a good story, so they’ll eventually get over their distaste for Cruz and start covering this one.  It’s an easy story to tell.  And it’s compelling.  Because if Trump can win in Iowa, of all places, where can’t he win?  And if he loses, after announcing today that Iowa is a must win, his whole candidacy will begin to implode.  And people are going to start to realize the same thing about Cruz.  If he can take out Big Corn in Iowa, something no one else has had the courage to do in 30 years, he can ride that momentum to a win, or something close, in New Hampshire.  And if he wins New Hampshire, where can’t he win?

Doug Truax is conservatism’s brightest light in Illinois, and a man to keep an eye on.  He’s formed Restoration PAC in order to run attack ads against Hillary.  The first one is on Benghazi.  There will be many such PACs formed this cycle.  They can be decisive, as seen with Swift Boat Vets.  If you get an itch to make a campaign donation, if you really want your money’s worth, send it to Truax or some other independent PAC.  Any campaign veteran will tell you:  there are some things a candidate, and his campaign, can’t do that these PACs can.  They get the bang for your buck.

I was going to say a few words about David Brooks, in today’s NYT, calling for the formation of an army of Republican moderates, but I guess not.  He’s probably a nice guy, with a nice family, and why make fun of the poor guy.

Back in the early 90’s, when Palin was getting started in politics on the Wasilla City Council, I was writing a conservative political column in the Anchorage Daily News.  If you were a Republican politician in south central Alaska, you read it, as I’m sure Sarah did.  I also was hosting a conservative radio talk show on KENI from three to five in the afternoon.  As Sarah was driving around, taking her kids to hockey practice, I was on the air, the first real conservative talk show host in Anchorage.  I’m sure she tuned in.

So I tried to cash in by asking her to make a couple phone calls to Montana legislators last year.  No dice.  Now she’s endorsed Trump.

We’ll see how this all works out.