Month: December 2015

With three successive polls propelling him into the RCP polling average lead in Iowa, Ted Cruz has gotten to the Donald.   When Dr. Carson had the lead, Trump started making cracks about his religion.  Iowans value niceness, and this cost Trump.  Now he says Cruz is a bit of a maniac in the Senate, lacking the needed temperament.  It hardly needs stating, but for irreligious Donald Trump to impugn Ben Carson’s religion, and now the Wild Man of American Politics to talk of another’s instability   — this is beyond parody.

It will represent an opportunity cost to Trump.  Don’t look for him to slip much in the polls.  He’s got a bit of a cult going.  The gold plate DMR poll by Iowa wizard Ann Selzer didn’t show him going down.  He went up a couple.  But he is in the process of destroying any opportunity to go up any further.  He’s putting in a ceiling.  If you’re not on board the Trump Train, you probably never will be.

I never for one minute thought Trump would win the nomination, and the events of the last few days have fortified my conviction.  The peak in Trump enthusiasm among the press has just occurred.   There’s always that one guy who buys at the very top of the market.

The one guy Cruz needs to watch out for is Mitch McConnell.  Mitch is in a position to mess with him, and he will.  He already has.  He finds out when Cruz is scheduled for a big appearance, and then schedules a vote that Cruz can’t miss.  And any vote that McConnell might think would hurt Cruz will be scheduled.  Anything that hurts Rubio won’t be voted on.

Cruz needs to be very careful with the budget omnibus bill that’s being worked out.  McConnnell and Ryan will try to set him up somehow.  In fact, I’m sure one of the considerations of what goes into the omnibus, and what stays out, is based on whether it would hurt or help Cruz.  That’s how these guys think.  Virtually the entire Congressional Republican leadership, House and Senate, will try to come up with some legislative maneuver which puts Cruz in a pickle.  It may be a vote on NSA spying.  Who knows?  Cruz has proven to me is that he’s a brilliant guy.  He wouldn’t have a chance if he wasn’t.

I’ve got Cruz’s book, A Time for Truth, to read over the holidays.  I’ll learn a few things.  If he pulls this off, it will be the political master stroke of my lifetime.  Not that he’s a first term Senator.  Rather, this is all part of a plan that he conceived when he ran for the Senate in 2012.  He figured the whole thing out.  How to get the notoriety, and the money, and the organization, and put a top notch national campaign in place, and all the while put himself in a position, politically, to win.  I can’t think of anybody that’s pulled that off.   Even if you don’t like him, you have to be impressed.

This bodes well for his administration.  He knows what he’s doing.  He doesn’t make mistakes.  The lack of executive experience shouldn’t be too much of a problem for him.  You can hire people to do that stuff.  He”ll have bigger fish to fry.

But I’m getting ahead of myself.  I’m a buyer on Selzer’s poll.  Cruz has got some momentum going.  I doubt anything changes much between now and the new year, when the race really begins.  Cruz has the lead.  Who can catch him, and how?

Rubio’s got the best shot, calling him out as a neoisolationist.  Two bright, articulate guys, having a substantive discussion about serious issues of national security?

I wish.

You don’t have to be that smart to be a good or even great politician.  For some reason I haven’t quite figured out, really smart people  can be astonishly bad at politics.  On the  IQ scale, the disastrous Herbert Hoover, one of the great engineers of the 20th century, is probably right up there with Jefferson.  Lyndon Johnson was a great politician (in the same sense that Hitler was a great orator) with a mediocre mind, at best.

So when I heard about how smart Ted Cruz is, and what a great lawyer, I was not impressed.  Politics requires a separate, though related, skill set.  When he precipitated the government shutdown in October of 2013 I thought he’d screwed up badly.  It may have cost us an outstanding Governor in Ken Cuccinelli, and elected the odious Terry McCauliffe.  It distracted attention from the unfolding Obamacare website fiasco.  It temporarily hurt the Republican brand.  And it ended in ignominious failure.

And it worked out just fine for Ted Cruz.  In just his first year in the Senate he established himself as the leading insurgent in the United States Congress, willing to take on the entire, thoroughly corrupt, Washington ruling elite.  In that venture, disaster that it was, Ted Cruz made his bones.

And now, on the campaign trail, I continue to be impressed.  I like Cruz, and I don’t mean this disparagingly  —  he reminds me of Nixon.  Now we all know about Nixon’s flaws, but he was a brilliant politician.

How good is Cruz?  He solved the Iowa Republican Riddle, by straddling effortlessly the three rings of Evangelical, Tea Party and Libertarian voters.  That takes some skill.   He’s rewarded tonight by the deservedly prestigious Des Moines Register poll  — Cruz 31, Trump 21.  I’ll bet that’s a very accurate snapshot of Iowa right now.  A lot can change in the next six weeks, but the timing of this is absolutely perfect for Cruz.  Not too early, just right.  Things wind down soon for Christmas, and over the holidays this is where he stands.  The favorite to win Iowa.  Nice.

The debate on Tuesday could change things, but I’m pretty confident it will only reinforce them.  Syrian refugees has got to be a big topic, and Cruz has placed himself in the best possible position, politically.  It’s like, if I’m Ted Cruz things could not possibly be set up more perfectly.

I’m a big fan of Rubio, but he’s in the process of blowing it on this Syrian refugee thing.  He’s taking way too soft a line.  This can hurt him, especially.  His Gang of Eight Bill may have been forgiven, but it’s not forgotten.  He needs to be strong on all things immigration.   He’s playing to the establishment on this one, and it’s being noticed.

It’s pretty apparent where this is heading.  Everybody’s lining up behind Rubio  — Fox News, the neocons, and the establishment.  Cruz is on his own, with talk radio as his media outlet.

I’m with Cruz on this, but then I’m pretty hard core.  I really don’t dislike Rubio  –I’d take him in a heartbeat.

And I think Cruz wins it.  He’s really thought this through.  And he’s executing.  He’s out on the trail, busting his ass, doing something that doesn’t come naturally to him.

I admire him for  this.  Most people don’t have any political skill, and seem awkward when they try.  He’s one of them, but he doesn’t care.  He’s good enough.

I think that’s a sign of character.

While Trump’s signature issue is immigration, his real strength as a candidate is his promise to “Make America Great Again.”  That is, he is an unreconstructed and unapologetic American nationalist.

Proposing a ban on all Muslim entry has an appeal because it is based on unalloyed, in your face, self interest.  To hell with world opinion, the U. N., our allies, the Pope, or anybody else.  This is what’s best for the USA, and you can all go stuff it.  It’s precisely the sort of thing Vladimir Putin would do.

It works so exceedingly well because it is in such stark contrast to Obama.  He does not pursue the best interests of the United States.  He does what he thinks best for humanity.  If our national interest coincides, great.  If not, tough.  America is too big, too strong, and too pushy to begin with.  If its interests have to be sacrificed for the betterment of the world, so be it.  It’s only payback for two hundred years of racism and capitalist exploitation.

If you want to pick up support from the tribe of Trump, try working on your American nationalism.

I believe both the Cubans are full bore American nationalists, and aren’t afraid to show it.  They need to start talking the talk.  I was surprised when Cruz came out against TPP, the Asian trade deal.  Right wing intellectuals like him are for free trade, philosophically, as am I.  I’m not going to try and figure out if his opposition is justified.  I’m not an economist.  The fact that it was negotiated by the Obama crowd certainly gives me pause.  Any Republican would get a better deal, so let’s put it off  (Which will happen, regardless.  It’s not up until 2017).

But regardless of the merits, opposing TPP lets Cruz draft right along behind Trump in the lead car.*  All in all, Trump’s presence in the race so far has been a positive.  It might have happened without him, but once Trump got in the race it was clear that the Republican nomination would only be won by a true immigration hawk, someone who can convince the Republican primary electorate that he will seal the border, and totally overhaul our broken immigration system.  Bush mush wasn’t going to cut it.

With his call of closing our borders to Muslims, he has done us another favor.  Hidden in all the outrage which greeted Trump’s proposal, Cruz was able to put out his own, drastic but reasonable plan without being condemned as an extremist.  If Cruz had not been drafting behind the Donald, he’d have taken some heat.  Thanks, D.

Because Cruz’s plan, besides being good on the merits, is political gold.  As details of the sleeper cell which erupted in San Bernadino come out, the idea of bringing more of these people into our country is going to start to seem suicidal.  How can this be in our national interest?  This is a big issue, and it’s going to get bigger.  Cruz has hit the sweet spot, and will reap the reward.

When I was getting ready to start my freshman year at Cal in 1962 I ordered a Goldwater sweatshirt from National Review so I’d have something to wear.  There was this guy teaching ECON 101, a socialist named Andreas Papandreou.  600 kids in an auditorium, so I’d get there a little early so I could sit in the front row and stare at him.  What a dumb bastard.  He became Prime Minster of Greece in 1981, and began laying the foundation for the collapse of the Greek economy.  I don’t think he knew who Goldwater was.

Because I wanted to be a politician I took a class in Speech.  I thought it would have to do something with speaking, which I figured I was pretty good at.  Not so.  I can’t remember what the hell it was about.  But the Professor knew who Goldwater was, and made plain he didn’t care for him.  Finally one day, as a class exercise in “Speech”, he said, he started off a discussion about politicians, and what we really know about them.  He says, “What do we really know about Barry Goldwater?  What do we know for sure?  Well, we know that he’s the senior Senator from  Arizona  — ”  at which point I interrupt, and explain that Goldwater is the junior Senator.

I got a C in ECON and a D in Speech.  I took off my Goldwater sweatshirt, quit college and got a job.

I wasn’t cut out for academia.

 

 

Hat tip, Dr. Krauthammer.

Antonin Scalia better not show his face in New Haven. The kids there are sensitive little flowers, and at the slightest provocation  — they call it a micro aggression  — they lose the will to live.  They can’t study, they can’t sleep, they just can’t function.  A call for tolerance in Halloween costumes gives them such a case of vapors that they needed to take time off from school to recover their nerve.

In oral argument yesterday Scalia referred to academic research showing mismatched affirmative action students do poorly in schools to which they are not qualified for admission.  Studies show they’re much better off at less rigorous academic settings. For this, he is pilloried.

I have to admit I just can’t get inside the head of these people.  Yale is a tough place to get into.  You need super grades, very high test scores, and God knows what else.  Kids who get in on their merits are high achievers with natural mental ability.  It’s a hard thing to admit, but the kids at Hackensack State just aren’t as bright and probably not as highly motivated.  So what would you expect if you took some kids from Hackenstack State and put them in Yale instead?  A few would do fine, but most would have a tough time.  Many would get discouraged and drop out, whereas if they’d stayed at State they’d have done fine.

Is that line of thinking controversial?  Are you kidding?  In Canada they can throw you in jail for hate speech for saying something like that.  According to one report, there were gasps of disbelief in the audience when Scalia uttered  his hate thought.

My God, my God.  As I saw  for myself at UCLA Law, Class of ’74, the black kids who get in on affirmative action have a very difficult time.  At UCLA Law, once you were admitted you were pretty much guaranteed to graduate.  They didn’t want people dropping out.  So all these guys got their J.D., and then 90% couldn’t pass the bar exam.  They’re not lawyers, the just have a law degree.  Whoop de do.  Was that worth three of the best years of your life?

But oh the faculty and administration were so proud of themselves.  They were so enlightened.  They were the good people.

So it gets down to Justice Kennedy.  What a weasel.  The last time the case was up he wanted it remanded so the trial court could give him some rationale for upholding affirmative action.  Kennedy, also, is enlightened, and a good person.  So now it’s back before them and they’ve got nothing for him.  He wanted the University to give him some cover, and they came up empty.  So for the first hour or so (I’m going off news accounts) he wonders aloud if maybe they should send it back again.  He doesn’t want to rule against the University, but he needs some help, some factual basis for his opinion.  Finally at the end of argument he gives up.  Sending it back wouldn’t do any good.  He’s stuck with the facts he’s got, and will be forced to rule against the University.  But he won’t strike down affirmative action.  It will be a narrowly tailored opinion.  Because Kennedy is a kind and caring person with great moral vision.

Where was Texas Gov. Perry when all this was going on?  Didn’t he control appointments to the Board of Regents, which devised these policies?

Public universities are subject to public control through the political process.  It’s time people start demanding their elected representatives stand up for the Constitution and the rule of law.

Reagan did it.

National Review is reporting that Sen. Sessions is all in on cutting Syrian refugee money from the coming omnibus, and willing to dare a shutdown over the issue.  There may be 70 House R’s ready to go with him.   Where’s Texas Ted?

Meanwhile Ryan is slow walking the negotiations with the D’s.  This leads Politico to think he feels a little delay right now works to his advantage.

One reason he’s right is the continuing saga of the San Bernadino jihadi’s visa.  We’re told Syrian refugees will be thoroughly vetted.  Nobody believes that, and the evidence coming in on San Bernadino confirms the skepticism.  Let this drip, drip continue.

I think a shutdown over refugees is much different than previous such efforts.  In ’95 it was over budget cuts  — abstract, ephemeral, nothing you can use as a call to arms.  In 2013 it was the implementation of Obamacare  — again a failure.  Congress and the President had passed the law, why don’t the Republicans give it a chance?  What are they afraid of?  Likewise, Planned Parenthood funding doesn’t cut it for a shutdown.  Most people don’t feel that strongly about it.

After San Bernadino, things have changed.  People are worried.  Something could happen to them and their families, and the government seems blase about it all.

This is the time, and refugees are the issue, to make this thing work.  You’ve already got a veto proof majority in the House.  The Democratic Senators up in 2016 don’t want blood on their hands.

If Obama is fool enough to shut down the government because he wants Syrian refugees, and he wants them now, he’ll lose.  I hope Limbaugh, Levin, et al jump on this today.  This is a fight we can win.

Take your time, Ryan.  Your Speakership is on the line.  If you cave, and let Pelosi get away with funding the Syrian refugees, you’re going to look like Boehner without the tan.  This is a big one.  Get it right.

Has watching Trump taught you nothing?