Month: December 2015

In law, the plaintiff bears the burden of proof.  He is the one seeking relief from the court, and is therefor required to make his case.

A refugee seeking asylum in this country is, in that sense, a plaintiff.  He is seeking admission.  The country he wishes to enter has no obligation to him.  If he fails his burden, and is unable to demonstrate his fitness, his case has failed and the relief he seeks must be denied.

This is the way a rational refugee policy would operate.  All this business of “vetting” is ass backwards.  We are not under any burden to establish an asylum seeker’s fitness, or lack thereof, for entry.  This burden is theirs, not ours.

I wish the Donald would pick up on that.

Tomorrow morning I’m picking up my sons and Reagan Project co-founders Darren and Brendan, and Darren’s serious girl friend, at LAX.  Blogging will be intermittent for a while.

Darren’s something of an internet expert, and spent a weekend a couple years ago setting up this website and blog.  I’ve done Darren a good turn or two, and with that he repaid me in full.

It has been my custom for the last fourteen years to wander around in the woods at Miller time, having a few cold ones, and thinking deep thoughts.  When I started thinking hard about politics again, after the 2012 election, I realized I was not alone.  There’s nothing unique about me.  All across this country there are patriotic men and women who understand politics just as I do.   People who actually think about politics, and know something about it.  People who were extremely concerned, like never before in the past, about the very viability of this country.

It was frustrating.  I wanted to communicate with these people.  I had a lot of ideas, and I wanted to share them.  Danke schoen, Darren.

And danke schoen to everyone who reads this blog.  You are a select group, however large.

Speaker Greg Stumbo’s Majority is dwindling in Kentucky.  It was 54-46, but then, after the 2015 gubernatorial election, a Louisville Democrat changed parties.  Gov. Matt Bevin appointed another House Democrat to his cabinet, and yesterday gave one of the plums at his disposal, a $125,000 a year workmen’s comp judgeship, to yet another House Democrat.   Stumbo’s down to 51.   Two House Republicans also took appointments, so there will be four special elections.  I’m not sure when they’ll  be, but it’s pretty obvious what Bevin is doing.  I’ll wager there are at least two more House Democrats who are pondering their future.  When Stumbo assured his members, after Bevin’s election, not to worry, because Hillary Clinton would be coming to their aid, I doubt it had the intended effect.  Odds are even that Stumbo’s gone in the next few weeks.  Another target state for the Task Force.  All we’d need is the green light from Bevin, and we’d get Kentucky.  This is what our sponsor, Rep.DeCesare told me, and I think he’s right.

I’ve been saying all along that Trump, Carson and Fiorina were media candidates, meaning they were created and are sustained by media coverage.  My buddy Nate Silver at 538.com went out and proved my point.  O. K., Nate’s not my buddy, but I have to admit the stuff they’re producing at 538 is very valuable and persuasive stuff.  I make light of number crunchers only because I’m not one.  But crunching numbers only you gets you part way there.  If you’re good at politics you see things coming before they show up in any poll.  Take Jeb!, please.  As a politician, I knew he didn’t have a prayer, even though he was ahead in the polls last spring.  Those polls meant absolutely nothing but name I.D.  Period.  They weren’t worth the paper they were written on.  Bush 3 never had a prayer.  You gotta smell the zeitgeist, dude.

The best thing about the debate last night was the tone  —  relatively civil, especially  between the Cubans and Trump.  This is very important.  Stay civil, by all means.  The highlight, for me, was Cruz saying he’d get Donald to pay for the wall, and Trump laughing right along.  I want these two guys to be buddies.  How smart is Cruz?  Trump calls him a bit of a maniac, and Cruz tweets back the song of the same name, and does it with a smile on his face.  That’s smart.

In fact, the more I think about Cruz the smarter this guy looks.  He knows he needs Florida, and that Rubio could get it for him.  So when he’s asked about the Libyan debacle, he attacks it, but he doesn’t call Rubio out on it.  He could have easily thrown in a shot about Rubio’s support of it, but he didn’t.  He’s not going to get nasty with Rubio.  And Rubio, no dummy himself, will reciprocate.  I feel like a boxing referee, giving instructions to the fighters  — no low blows, no rabbit punches.  Now shake hands and come out fighting.

Natalie Hill, former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown’s daughter, sang the national anthem.  Boy, was his election a sign of things to come.  If he’d lost, the D’s would have still had 60, enough to fix some of the obvious flaws in the Obamacare bill they’d previously rammed through the Senate.  But when they lost their cloture proof majority, they had no choice.  They were stuck with an unworkable piece of garbage, but they swallowed hard (at B. J. Clinton’s urging) and figured they’d get it to work somehow.  Wrong.  Thanks, Scott.  Your career was short, but you accomplished more than some lifers ever do.

That anthem was the nicest part of the debate.  Seeing the nine candidates, good Americans all, hands over their hearts, singing or whispering along, with all the American flags everywhere.  Over in Europe they look at that and say, Those people are weird.

Yup.

Everybody gets their kicks in their own way.  The most fun I had in 2012 was watching the first Obama-Romney debate.  It was like a UFC fight  — brutal, as Romney put Obama on the ground and kept pounding him.

Recalling that sunny moment leads me to what I’m quite sure will be one of the highlights of 2016, as Hillary squares off with one of the Cubans.  It really doesn’t matter which one.  Rubio’s got that youthful rock star charisma.  Hillary will struggle to avoid looking like a washed out old woman pushing 70.  Cruz will fence with her, fending off her attacks effortlessly, and methodically cutting her to shreds.

Never in her life has Hillary had to undergo the one on one, no holds barred, in your face kind of treatment she”ll get from the Cuban.  Hell, I don’t think she’s ever conducted an actual trial, much less a jury trial.  She’s only debated Democrats, and it’s kid’s glove stuff.  These Democratic debates are a joke.  Sanders and O’Malley are such cowards they won’t even throw a punch.  I don’t think Obama ever really went at her in ’08.

I think she’s got a glass jaw, just like Obama did against Romney.  Until that moment, for his entire life,  I don’t think Obama had been subjected to that sort of assault. He had no idea how to handle it.  And neither will Hillary.

One thing I wonder about is the millennials.   Who’s President when you’re growing up has a big impact on your politics.   I think the kids who came of age under Reagan trended Republican a bit  If you came of age under Bush 2 you trended Democrat.  There are signs that people who came of age under Obama aren’t trending in either direction.  Hillary needs to duplicate Obama’s youth vote.  The tide’s not with her.

Another bright thought for the day is the contrast between First Spouses.  On the one hand, the beautiful, accomplished young mothers, with their beautiful families.  And then there’s Bill.

Who really wants to see that smug punk in the White House again?

Oh, there’s the blacks. They love Bill.  Do they really?  After South Carolina in ’08?  Even if they do, it’s nothing like the way they feel about Obama.  And that is not transferable.

Heidi Cruz is an interesting woman.  The daughter of Seventh Day Adventist missionaries.  She used to go to Africa with them as a kid.  This is Ben Carson’s faith.  She got some fancy business degree in Belgium, then a Harvard M.B.A.  She’s a conservative, taking time off from a budding business career to work on the Bush 2 campaign.

That tells me all I need to know about this woman.  She’s one of us.  And it has nothing to do with her husband.  To do what she did in 2000 is the act of a true believer.  As was her cheerful agreement to spend their entire life savings on Ted’s improbable Senate run.

This is a true power couple.  A woman as smart, and politically involved, as Heidi Cruz could do any number of things as first lady.  Right now she’s spending ten hours a day calling donors, trying to get them to max out.  This is one of the worst things to do in politics.  Everybody hates it.  And she just wades in.  What a gal.

Ted’s a very lucky guy.

 

If you want to be happy for the rest of your life, get an ugly girl to marry you.  That’s what the song said, back when I was a kid.  Nobody paid it any attention of course.  But it reminds me of the Dance of the Two Cubans.  Do  we choose the sly dog, the hunk, the Lothario?  Or do we go with the guy who can’t dance, but actually knows what he’s doing?

It’s 1960 all over again, with Rubio playing the dashing, elegant John F. Kennedy, and Cruz stuck with the part of the dour, humorless Tricky Dick Nixon.

I’m going with Nixon, just like I did 55 years ago.  But I certainly see why others choose differently.  For me, the best case scenario is a Cruz/Rubio ticket.  We absolutely have to get Florida, and if you’re pursuing a turn-out-the-base strategy, as Cruz is, Florida is harder to get than the other must win, Ohio.  (Hispanics).  If Rubio loses, I want it done with dignity, and that’s what I expect.  Marco, to his credit, is leaving the Senate.  He needs a gig.  He claims to be Cruz’s friend, and for all we know it could be true.  If Cruz has won fair and square I bet Marco accepts.  He can deliver Florida.  And John Kasich, despite his faults, is a loyal party man.  He’ll do all he can in Ohio, and he’s got a very good organization there.  If Ohio and Florida come around, the next big prize is Virginia, a state that is evolving politically.  It is possible to win without Virginia, but it’s a narrow path.

But I’m getting ahead of myself.  Rubio or Cruz is probably going to win this thing by the middle of April.  (Discussions of brokered conventions are a way to kill time).  They immediately pivot to the general.  This what we at the BBA Task Force hope to offer them.  We will have, Lord willing, picked up West Virginia, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Oklahoma and Idaho, for a total of 32 states.  We only need two more, South Carolina and Arizona.  The Republican nominee will have enough juice to get both of them for us.  These are both solid red states, with strong Republican legislative majorities.  If the next President makes clear he wants it done, it could get done.  We’re at 34, Congress sets the time and place of the Amendment Convention , and off we go.

This is an optimistic take, but within the realm of reason.  The main point is that if we get to 32 we have to be taken seriously.  And, for a Republican Presidential nominee, we are pure gold.  We’re about balancing the  budget, which is supported by supermajorities in both parties.  And we’re about taking power away from the federal government and returning it to the states, and the people.  If that message doesn’t ring true today, then I’m a complete moron and you should stop wasting your time reading this blog.

Speaking of which, my AT article of today, on Cruz’s electability, was posted over at Lucianne.com by a guy named, I believe, B. J. O’Sullivan, aka Kerryman.  Lucianne has about the same number of viewers as AT, so when I get posted there my readership probably doubles.  So, thanks much, B. J.  I owe you a beer.

So, so few people have really made up their minds for sure.  Harry Enten at 538.com says Trump will get somewhere between 8% and 64% of the vote.  The point he’s trying to make is that the race hasn’t really started.  Trump has the pole, but Cruz is within striking distance, and Rubio’s right there too.  Anything can happen.  You think you know, but you don’t.

The Lord gave us free will. What happens is up to us.

For political veterans, much of what we’re starting to hear about Ted Cruz has an eerily familiar ring.  Too extreme.  Unelectable.  Scares people. A radical, not a conservative.

The American people will hear a lot about Cruz’s extremism in the year ahead, just as they were told about Reagan’s.  It may cause them to hesitate before supporting him.  But over the course of the campaign they’ll be able to make that determination for themselves.  In fact, Ted Cruz represents the mainstream of conservative thought in this country, just as Reagan did two score years ago.  Reagan’s victory vindicated everything we’d been saying for twenty years.  A Cruz win next year would do so again.

Precisely 36 years ago Reagan was on his way to the Republican nomination.  George Will and  the church ladies of the party were concerned, even trying to lure former President Ford into the race.  Reagan was just too conservative to get elected.    A few years earlier Will had described Reagan’s support as “. . . kamikaze conservatives who thought the 1964 Goldwater campaign was jolly fun.”  The reasonable, establishment Republicans settled on Bush 1 as their candidate, and it was game on.  Marco Rubio is, or will be, their choice this time.  Same song, same singers.

Even those of us in the Reagan campaign had concerns.  In January of 1980 Reagan trailed Carter 62-33.   This in spite of the fact that our embassy in Iran had been overrun, and hostages taken, a couple months before.  Carter had earlier been openly humiliated by Brezhnev in Afghanistan.  A weak economy, and soaring inflation, combined to give us the worst of both worlds, stagflation.  The previous summer  Carter had complained to the American people about their malaise.  He seemed to be over his head.  In the face of all these troubles, Carter still had a 2-1 lead.  Reagan was too extreme.

 

The rest is up at American Thinker.  Here’s the link.