Month: December 2015

Ted Cruz is taking pains to emphasize that his opposition to a path to citizenship for illegals is unqualified.  Aside from the fact that this is logical and fair, would this hurt his chances against Hillary?

She’ll get out her little violin and tell us about these marvelous, law abiding, citizens in waiting, cowering in the shadows, living in constant fear of the racism of the country they desperately want to become a part of.  Tears will be shed.

Hillary will claim she supports controlling our borders, and returning to a semblance of the rule of law in our immigration policy.  She won’t mean it, but she has to say it.  She might even go so far as to oppose granting citizenship to new illegals.  In the future.  Sometime.  But for now we must allow people who have been here illegally for years to become citizens.  To do otherwise is racist.  The Republican will be called an extremist.

Letting people who jumped the line to profit from their lawlessness is a political loser, and not just because it’s not fair.  It encourages people all over the world to break our law and enter our country illegally.  Ever since Simpson-Mazzoli in 1986 the word has gone out:  just get in to the US, keep your head down, and eventually they’ll let you stay.  Granting a pathway, any pathway, to citizenship reinforces and perpetuates that calculation.

Rubio is soft on this issue, Cruz senses it, and he’s capitalizing.

But wait!  Polls show 72% of voters, and 56% of Republicans, favor a pathway.  So, politically, you support a pathway, right?  Wrong.  Here’s where you smell the zeitgeist, and trust your nose.  If you frame it properly, you can ignore these polls.  And framing it properly is a piece of cake.

I’m starting to get the feeling that Marco hasn’t really thought everything through the way Cruz has.  Either that or he’s committed to a straddle strategy, one which requires him to make the occasional gesture of moderation to the Establishment.  Cruz will make him pay for every gesture he makes.  I’ve been saying for some time it would be one of the Cubans.

It’s no surprise it’s starting to look like the smart one.

I’ve got a piece up in American Thinker.  Here’s the link.

What are Democrat leaning independents in New Hampshire, who are passionately opposed to Trump, going to do to stop him?  Especially if Sanders fades, and Hillary’s locking up the Democratic nomination,  John Casssidy in the New Yorker suggests they vote for a Republican, just as they did in 2000 when they put McCain over the top.

So if Cruz wins Iowa, someone, probably other than hard core Cruz, may beat Trump in New Hampshire, at which point the Trump bubble pops.  I’ve never bought into Christie, which is why I hope he’s the one to benefit.  He’s got nothing going beyond New Hampshire, so is not a serious threat.  So if it’s Cruz in Iowa, Christie in New Hampshire, and Cruz again in South Carolina, you should see Kasich, Paul and Bush pull out, leaving the far more appealing Rubio as the last real establishment hope.

I got an email from the guys at a site called the wonkreport, who want to put my posts up on their site.  It’s a platform site, like AT, which hasn’t seen much activity lately.  Somebody reads it, even if it’s just the guys that set it up.

The brave souls at 538.com had a bull session about the D debate, which they were all apparently required to watch (why else?).  These guys have some money behind them, it’s a commercial site.  I wish them well.  There may be other sites which feature conversations about politics at this level, but I’m unaware of them.  They’re all lefties, but have the good sense not to let that overwhelm the evidence.   This is an ideal year for their site, which spends an inordinate amount of time on trivia like sports.  But then, the trivial is where the people, and the money, are.

Nate Silver opined that VP’s are selected to counteract a nominee’s perceived weaknesses, or accentuate his strengths.  Actually, that’s just the beginning of the discussion.  Many times it’s much more focused.  Look back at some recent examples.   Johnson was picked to carry Texas.  He did, and Kennedy won.  For the Republican this year, the choice will be easy.  If it’s Cruz, who has the wind at his back for the moment, prevails, he picks Rubio to carry Florida.  If it’s Rubio, he picks Kasich to carry Ohio.

Hillary needs help with the white working man, the guys that Biden supposedly appeals to.  I don’t have any idea who Biden 2 would be.  That part of the D bench is pretty depleted.

The problem with the guys at 538 is that their analysis is usually static, almost always backwards looking.  It only holds if present trends continue.  Dynamic analysis accounts for changes in the direction of the electorate.  Take immigration.  538 thinks the Republican move to the right on this issue hurts them.  Au contraire.  If the R’s are able to conflate immigration with Syrian refugees, which they’re in the process of doing, this move is a winner.

We’re all in our own little bubble.  The one I’m in says, for Hillary and the D’s, this whole Syrian refugee thing is a time bomb ticking in a tar baby.

Their little bubble is about to pop.

 

I’ve got a piece up at American Thinker on Trump, the indispensable man.  Deputy editor Drew Belsky did a little touch up work on it, which I appreciate.   Here’s the link.

I mentioned a while back that Cruz reminded me of Nixon.  I didn’t mean it as a put down.  But now I think he’s really similar to Bibi Netanyahu.  That’s a compliment.