Month: November 2015

Reuters has an article saying Islam is now an existential threat to the West.  In other words, a threat to our very existence, or survival.  Politically, this means Republicans and Democrats have cover for discarding the Fourth Amendment.  They’re busy this week, in a marvelous display of much sought for bipartisanship, in subverting our freedom as Americans.

If Islam were in fact an existential threat I might give them a listen.  But Islam?  These people don’t know how to make bicycles.  We could wipe their whole civilization out on a weekend.  The only weapon they have is terror, and if people refuse to be terrified they’ve got nothing.

Sure, they can kill us if our guard is down.  In Arab culture, the stab in the back is celebrated.  But terror attacks are disruptive, not destructive.  The next day commerce begins again.

But what if they get a bomb?  It could happen.  They could blow it up in Manhattan and kill a million people.  America would survive.  Our existence would not be threatened.

And this, really, is the summit of their imagination: a nuclear device killing a million Americans.  Then what do they do?  Blow up another city?  They’d never get a chance.  Detonating a nuclear device in the United States is signing your own death warrant.  We’d start by dropping a 100 megaton bomb on Mecca, and move on from there.  No Moslem shrine in the world would be left standing.

Islam is a threat to our freedom only if they scare us into taking it away from ourselves.

I have to give a hat’s off to Judge Andrew Napolitano on Special Report.  He tore young Brett Baier a new one on this subject.  Liberty and security are not on a balance.  Our liberties are supreme, and enshrined in the Constitution.  You can’t say it much better than the Judge did.

The night before I saw something truly pathetic on the same show.  An Asian Frenchman was talking to his little boy about terrorism, and the kid says he’s afraid, because the bad people have all the guns, and the father says, “Yes, but we have flowers.”  There are words for this, but this is a family blog.

We should all thank God for the internet.  It has liberated knowledge, and opened lines of communication, that are completely unprecedented in human history.  We are living in a brave new world.  A world of expanding freedom, and measureless promise.  And we’re going to let a bunch of 7th Century fanatics take all this away from us?  I don’t think so..

There have been contests between liberty and security before in our cultural history.  As Thomas More said, “…when the last law was down, and the devil turned round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat?”

Politico has a story on the partisan divide which points out the one, big, defining issue for 2016.  The number one concern for Democrats is income inequality.  Republicans make economic growth their highest priority.  On substance, this may be the issue that decides the election.

The people who will decide this election haven’t been paying attention, and won’t until after Christmas.  They aren’t even Republicans or Democrats  — they’re independents, swing voters, middle of the roaders, and switch hitters.  Do they want Hillary leading the fight against income inequality, or a Cuban fighting for economic growth?

They’ll take the Cuban every day.  What does reducing income inequality do for them, personally, and their families?  What makes anybody think Hillary would be any more successful in this task than Obama?  Why does bringing rich people down do anything for the struggling middle class?  How, exactly, does all this work?

The Republican will have a clear and easily understood program for growth.  A plan which has been tested, most recently by Ronald Reagan, to great effect.  A plan which a century ago gave us the Roaring 20’s.

Fighting income inequality is inherently a job for an aggressive and powerful government.  Economic expansion requires the reduction of government, in the forms of taxes and regulation.  Do the independents of this country, after the experience of Obamacare, really want a more aggressive and  powerful federal government?  Or do they want it reined in?

If that’s the question I like the answer.

The Democratic Victory Task Force is out with its report, and we should be worried.  They nailed it.  We’re in trouble.

They’ve discovered their “disjointed style of communicating” makes them “lack a clear message.”  Debbie W-S makes clear that the failure to address any actual issues in this report is no accident.  On the issues, they’re just fine. No adjustment needed.  They need better messaging, that’s all.  The dog food is fabulous.  They need to sell it better.  They need a “clear, value based message”  to “promote innovation and prosperity for all.”  Oh, and they’re going to “reach out” to Southerners.

This is  what, at some point, is going to dawn on the independent “deciders.”  The D’s under Obama have run the federal government for eight years.  He only had the House and Senate together for two, and if Hillary wins she might take the Senate, but no one thinks the D’s flip the House.  So Hillary will face the same political circumstances that Obama has.  Why is she going to succeed in getting the economy going when he hasn’t?  What is she going to do different, and better?

With Hillary, is there any hope of change?

 

We’re pretty much birds of a feather here in the Sierra foothills.

When Babbie and I left Alaska after 27 years we looked at Healdsburg in the North Bay wine country, and at Ben Lomond in the Santa Cruz redwoods.  I knew I wouldn’t fit in.  Republicans are endangered species in both areas.  They’re both beautiful, pseudo-rural areas, but I felt a vague sense of discomfort.

So I decided to take a look at the foothills, and after a couple days in Sonora I called Babbie and told her we’d found a new place to live.  I fit in.  We’ve been here fourteen years and I still feel right at home.  Our popular sheriff openly refuses to enforce gun control laws he feels are unconstitutional.  I feel right at home.

This is an example of the great sorting, and it’s a good thing.  People are more comfortable around others who are similar to them.  This is not a racial thing.  Blacks feel more comfortable around blacks.  People like being in a “safe space”, having a sanctuary.   It’s human nature.  This makes some people uneasy, but it’s a fact:  diversity does not unite communities, it divides them.

As an American, I’m very supportive of diversity, of all kinds.  I like the fact that we’re not all a bunch of Deutschlanders living in Deutschland.  We come from all over the world, and I think that’s very cool.  We’re about to elect a Cubano as our President.  How cool is that.  Having a black President was cool.

I also like living around people who are a lot like me.  I can visit San Francisco and see all the diversity I want.  And people from San Francisco come to the foothills to recreate, which is great.  They’ve got their community, we’ve got ours.

I guess this makes me a racist.  But I’m not the only one.  I think a majority of Americans feel the same way.  It’s just the way people are.

The Democrats don’t like this kind of talk, because it smacks of segregation.  But a strictly voluntary, and unorganized, segregation, enforced by no law, surrounded by no barriers.  It is not racial.  Though they are few in number, ethnic minorities are welcome in the foothills, and can feel at home here.  It’s a  spontaneous clustering of like minded individuals who are at the same time full participants in the society at large.

This is what’s happening in America because this is what people want.  And in this country the people, eventually, get what they want.

This is a part of chasm between red state and blue state America.  We’re very different from one another, and don’t particularly enjoy each others company.   I don’t have any problem with the people in San Francisco living their progressive lifestyle.  Live and let live, I say.

I just wish they’d treat me the same way.

I’d rather not be a Democrat.  Obama and his party have chosen to stay the course after Paris.  No corrections or adjustment, just low intensity, politically supervised, and low risk operations.  No one believes this will take out ISIS.

At the same time we’ll take in between 10,000 and 65,000 Syrian “refugees”, after having done a pro forma background check.  This is insanity.  To believe that not one of these thousands will be a jihadist is absurd.

The American people know it, and will hold Obama and the Democrats accountable.  If a Syrian immigrant commits a serious crime against an American citizen, much less an act of terror, there will be hell to pay.  If we have a terror incident involving Syrians it could easily put a Republican in the White House.  If ISIS manages to pull off a  major attack in this country, the Democrats are toast.

ISIS holds the Democratic Party hostage.

Democrats are the party of compassion, and nurturing.  They care, and share, and avoid conflict.  They’re the Mommy party.  When there is danger, Americans look to the party of strength, resolve and muscle.  That’s the Daddy party, the Republicans.  Throughout the Cold War the Republicans had an advantage.  In times of peace that advantage disappears.  Paris demonstrates, even to the very lowest information voter, that there’s a war on.

I’d rather not be a Democrat right now.

At the parliamentary French President Hollande just addressed a joint session of the National Assembly and Senate in the parliamentary  chamber at the Palace of Versailles.  France is at war, and he wants it on a war footing.  Constitutional protections and civil liberties may be suspended.  This man means business.*

Obama, not so much.  Nothing much to see here, let’s move on.  And no Democrat will cross him.  The Socialist President of France, of all people, is a tower of strength.  In contrast, The United States is led by an insecure and listless man.

You can imagine the Republicans overreacting.  If there are no further attacks, a year from now perhaps the Democrats’ caution and passivity will be rewarded.  I sure wouldn’t count on it.

As the party in power, the Democrats are responsible for our security.  With 9-11, Bush 2 blew it, but because of his bellicose reaction didn’t pay a price.  With Obama it’s different.  Everyone can see his aversion to another Mideast adventure.  It’s understandable, and doesn’t hurt politically.  Yet.  But Hillary and the Democrats can do nothing but hope they can get by for eleven and a half months without an act of terror on  our soil.  That’s a long time to wait.  I’d be nervous.

I’d rather not be a Democrat right now.

 

*Hat tip to Tim Kelly

 

 

 

 

 

Politics is complicated.  It’s hard for the simple minded to understand.

Demographics is politics for the simple minded.  Forget actual politics, the give and take between opposing parties, contrasting different political philosophies, campaigns.  None of that really matters, or at least it won’t.  Any time now.  You’ll see.  The Republicans, in their current configuration, are doomed.  Soon.

But, guess what.  We just might have a shot at 2016.  But after that, it’s over.  Trust David Brooks of the NYT.  He’s a deep thinker, and can see not only the outcome of 2020, but many elections beyond.  Like his buddy Stan Greenberg, he’s looked at demographic trends, and, starting real soon, the Republicans are screwed.  Forever.  Unless, of course, they embrace immigration, and stop harping on all the illegals.

As David said on Friday, “This will be the last presidential cycle in which the GOP, in its current form, has even a shot at winning the White House.”

Brooks agrees with Greenberg.  We might have a shot next year, then it’s over.

But there are these little things that pop up, now and then, that demographics doesn’t account for, and doesn’t influence.  They’re called events.  They change things.  If you can see them coming, you can see political possibilities.

These are the events that I foresee.  Rubio or Cruz crush Hillary, and increase the Republican majorities in the Congress.  A Balanced Budget Amendment is proposed, ratified, and adhered to.  Sweeping entitlement reform, of the kind envisioned by Speaker Ryan, is enacted, and Medicare and Social Security are secure for a generation.  The regulatory burden is slashed, if not eliminated, and we have an economic expansion rivaling the Roaring 20’s.  Federal lands in the West are opened up, and the fracking revolution doubles in size.  And there’s more, much more.  We  could even abolish the IRS.

So Rubio or Cruz lead the Republican Party in the 2020 election.  Oh, but wait, I forgot, they won’t have a shot at winning.  Demographics, you see, conquers all.  And the Hispanics, blacks and Asians, all benefiting nicely, thank you very much, from the roaring economy, will vote for whoever the Democrats nominate.  Because they want more immigration, and the Republicans won’t give it to them.  Really?

This is called a political realignment.  1860 was a realignment election, as was 1932.  They didn’t have anything to do with demographics.  2016 can be a realignment election.

If the Republicans deliver.  They have to be on the way to a balanced budget, they must reform entitlements, and they must instigate an economic boom.  If they accomplish these goals, then, and only then, will 2016 have been a realignment.

O.K., that’s a rosy scenario.  But it’s the one I, and millions of other Americans, are trying to make happen.  You can bet against us.  Just don’t bet the farm.

Since I like Rubio I can imagine he and his handsome family in the White House.  A Cubano Camelot, or, rather, Miami Nice.

Rubio’s got some ‘splainin’ to do.  The Gang of Eight bill was a disgrace.  I think he understands that.  He gets to change his position on immigration just like everybody else.  Because he’s such a slick and savvy politician, I think he can pull it off.  He backed off immediately on any Syrian refugees.  He gets it, and the more time he spends on the campaign trail, and the more he learns about the politics of immigration, the more he’s going to get it.  The Trump phenomenon is an immigration backlash, pure and simple.  These people are pissed off, and any Republican who wants the nomination better understand that.

The nice thing about being in the prognostication business is that you find out pretty quick if you’re right or wrong.  Two years ago, on this blog, I predicted a political tidal wave, of historic proportions.  The election of 2014 was a harbinger, as was 2015.  A year from now, if I’m right, the wave will be at its height, and all those wonderful things I’ve been talking about would have a chance of becoming true.

Things are going almost too good.