Month: September 2015

When Bush 1 said he was a kinder and gentler conservative, and Bush 2 called himself a compassionate conservative, they were trying to differentiate themselves from regular conservatives, like, say, Ronald Reagan.  Bush 3 promises more of the same.  He’s said he’ll risk losing the primaries because of it, but he’s so passionately compassionate he’ll take the chance.  Real conservatives, Reagan conservatives, have watched a total of twelve years of this kind of conservatism, under Bushes 1 and 2, so we’re quite familiar with it.   And we are determined, dedicated, to prevent it from happening again.  This is one of the principal reasons Jeb! will not get the nomination.

At some point, as first Walker, then Christie, and, eventually, Bush 3 fade from view, Kasich will be anointed as the establishment, or moderate candidate.  He will have completed the first step of his three step dance to the Presidency.  The second step is his claim to the Reagan legacy.  He lucked out in ’76, and got a chance to drive the Gipper around at the Republican National Convention.  He got into politics very young, as a full bore Reaganaut, and can talk conservative with the best of them.  He was a Reagan man when he was elected to Congress, and stayed a Reagan man the eighteen years he was there.  He governs Ohio just as Reagan governed California.  He will resurrect the Reagan program which turned the economy around, gave us roaring economic growth, and launched a nineteen year long bull market.

The knock on Kasich is medicare expansion.  This will be thrown at him again and again.  His answer has improved, but I think he needs to go on offense.  Explain that his obligation as Governor of Ohio is to the people who elected him.  Not anyone else.  The political culture of Ohio, Ohio values, led him to take the federal money, and help his people.  Other states, and other governors, made different choices, in accordance with their political culture.  That’s as it should be.  That’s federalism, which he intends to do everything in his power to promote when he’s President.  In the job he seeks, the Presidency, he will not be making such decisions on behalf of the people of this country.  Rather, he will be devolving that power back to the states, and the people.

I don’t think I’ve heard much about federalism from the candidates.  I think this is something Kasich should be in front of the pack on.

I didn’t get to go to the ’76 Convention.  The Ford forces, led by Sen. Ted Stevens, beat us at the State Convention by one vote.  My district, Spenard, a blue collar Democrat part of town, had sent a solid Reagan delegation, under my leadership.  Sen. Stevens’ personal secretary was from this district, and when I refused to make her a delegate the Senator let me know that he’d remember me.  And he always did.  He had a good memory.

The man’s been dead for five years and I still can’t stand him.

It used to be conventional wisdom that a Governor would be the ideal Republican Presidential candidate.  Obama had soured us on politicians, such as Senators, without executive experience.  A big state Governor with a proven record of conservative accomplishment would have the best shot.  This was B.T.  When Trump took off this line if thinking disappeared.  So let’s look at A.T., after Trump.

This is not premature.  You think ahead, and make assumptions.  I assume Trump is not the nominee.  Or Fiorina or Carson.  I’m kind of surprised that so many people seem to take them seriously.  I shouldn’t be.  Right now this campaign is all media, and the media is ravenous for new story lines and personalities.  Trump, Fiorina and Carson are media creations.  None of them have accomplished a damn thing in politics.  Their presence impacts the race, though.  I love having an extremely bright woman and an extremely bright black man in this field, and I hope they last a long time, and have a graceful exit.  And the Donald brings the ratings, God bless him.  We had 23 million of the most politically concerned American voters watch our field Wednesday night, thanks in large part to him.

As for the Governors I never took Christie seriously, for a host of reasons.  And, as I believe I’ve mentioned, I have never, for one minute, thought that Jeb! could get the nomination.  Part of that is wishful thinking, I admit.  But I have not seen one thing to make me change my mind.  Which leaves Walker, who, I must say, is beginning to really look desperate.  We’ve all seen that look before.  It’s quite sad.  The funny thing is, he had his moment.  But his timing was off.  He hadn’t thought things through, so he wasn’t ready.  And, in the blink of an eye, it was gone, never to return.  He’s a good guy, and you have to feel for him.

Which leaves Kasich as the Gubernatorial candidate.  At this point in the campaign it doesn’t help much.  Nobody’s listening.  People are just looking.  Down the road, when people actually start paying attention, it will be a great asset.  Just as everybody said, B. T.  When I was gaming this out, six months ago, I figured there wasn’t enough room in the race for both Kasich, and Walker.  One of them had to go, they were in the same space.  I really didn’t foresee Walker becoming irrelevant this early.  If you’re a Kasich supporter, this is a big deal.  You want to give Walker supporters a welcome, if you can figure out how to do it.

Ryan Lizza wrote a column asking if the Donald had a second act.  I think that’s a very good question.  He’s been on this shtick for three months, and it’s starting to get old.  Even if he can keep it up for another six months, he’s got to come up with some fresh material, a second act.  I saw something in the Donald’s eyes in the debate.  It was right after he told Fiorina that she had a beautiful face.  The audience reaction was very negative to him, and the Donald responded by looking like a little boy who had been reprimanded by his Mommy.  He was visibly upset.  This man has a tender ego.

Think about it.  If you were closely following a Presidential race, when, in your lifetime, could it have been more fun than now?  It’s got the makings of a great reality show.

Maybe that’s how we should start thinking about it.

When Obamacare hit the fan, almost two years ago, it occurred to me that this was Roberts’ doing.  The unforgettable spectacle of the website fiasco was a turning point in our politics, a lancing of the boil, so to speak.  For this to happen, for all to see, the law had to be upheld.

That’s my theory, and I’m sticking with it.  So far there are 50 commenters at AT, one of whom agrees with me, and he sounds like a Democrat.  I’m getting beat up pretty bad.  They’re a tough crowd.  Anyway, here it is:

The law was clear.  But so was the politics.  In the spring of 2012, as he reflected on his decision in NFIB v. Sibelius, the Chief Justice in the end chose to protect the Court rather than uphold the law.  But in allowing Obamacare to take effect, he fostered the turn in the political tide that occurred in October of 2013, with its actual implementation.   This was an inflection point in our politics.  For a generation, it will undermine the proponents of big government.    I believe he knew exactly what he was doing.  I believe he’s conservative to his bones, and is the smartest man in public life today.

Here’s the link to the rest:

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/09/speaking_for_john_roberts.html

Rumors circulate that Walker’s campaign manager, Rick Wiley, is on his way out, which makes sense.  The idea of “I am Walker, Destroyer of Worlds, Wreaker of Havoc” must have come from him, or at least he signed off on it.  My God.  And then I hear that one of Walker’s post-debate spinners is out there proclaiming that his man has shown himself to be unintimidated, yet again.  A line that had been prepared by, one must assume, Wiley.  Go sell some insurance, man, you’re in the wrong business.

In the debate, Walker was himself, which is a problem.  He’s not good enough.  This field is too big, and too good, and he doesn’t stand out in any way.  I assume he has some gullible donors who will keep him afloat for a while, but you’ve got to cross him off your list.  He’s a bland man in a television age.

Jeb! was the earnest, if ineffectual, vice principal trying to get the kids to stop shooting spitwads at Miss Quigley.  He’s a nice man.  Too nice.  If we want nice we go with kindly Dr. Carson.  We want strength and confidence, not nice.

Parson Ted is unnerving.  He looks straight in the camera, straight in your eye, and like a trained hamster he rattles off his exquisitely crafted sentences and paragraphs, as though he were reading a legal brief.  And just as inspiring.  There’s something robotic about this guy.

Especially compared to Don Juan of Florida, who speaks just as fluidly, but to far more effect.  It seemed a little canned, but it was very good.  The bottle of water gimmick, though.  Fire whoever came up with that idea.  This man will win Florida for us, and be a fine Vice President.

I happened to catch a little of the under card, enough to see that little pipsqueak Lindsey Graham do his Patton imitation.  Pathetic.

I thought Kasich was terrific, except at the end. He wasn’t on much, but he handled himself well, and for those who were paying attention he made far more sense on Iran than any of the others, especially Cruz.  At the very end, when he interjected about defending Judeo-Christian values, it just didn’t work.  He was too rushed, and he couldn’t make his case coherently.  I understand what he was trying to say, and it’s worth saying.  But this format didn’t give him the time.  That case needs to be made in some detail.

Kasich was under no pressure in this debate.  He’s on a roll in New Hampshire, which is where it counts.  He just needed to put in a solid performance, which he did.  He chose, for the most part, not to join the clamor for recognition.  There were others up there who needed it more than he did.

I finally came up with my Trump-alike:  Joe Pesci, in My Cousin Vinnie.  I don’t think the Donald won any new fans, but I doubt he lost many either.  He’s a celebrity, not a politician.  A celebrity is judged by an entirely different set of rules.

I just don’t know what they are.

I’m working on a piece for AT, which I’ll probably submit in a couple days, and post here.  It’s a defense of John Roberts, who I think is the smartest man in public life today.

I generally like politicians.  During my eight years in the legislature, I got to know a lot of them pretty well.  Almost all of them, even some of the ones that were corrupt, wanted to do good.  Very few were just in it for themselves.  So when I think of the fifteen candidates on the stage tonight, I sympathize with every one of them.  Competition is always good, and politics is no exception.  Whoever emerges will be stronger for the competition.  And the rest will be a legend within their family for generations.  A hundred years from now, mothers will tell her children, “Did you know that your great grandfather ran for President?”

Or, great grandmother, thank you very much.