Jeb! and his burden

My name’s Jeb!  —  and the smart money’s on me as the next President.  But I’ve got a problem.  It’s my dopey brother George, and his record.
According to the CBO George ran a $4.9 trillion deficit.  When he had Republicans running both the House and the Senate, 2003-2007, the deficit was over $1.8 trillion.
How do I defend that?
Mom and Dad always told us that family comes first.  But George is killing me. I wanted to call him out on his stupid war in Iraq, but Dad says that would be throwing my older brother under the bus, and I can’t do that.  So I get in trouble.  Because of George.
The whole family has always known that George wasn’t that bright.  I’ve always been the smart one, the one everyone knew was destined to uphold the family tradition of public service.  Then  Karl Rove got ahold of him, and told him he could get elected Governor of Texas if he stuck with a few talking points.  They were simple and easy  points to make, right up George’s alley.  He’d quit drinking and had a kind of manic discipline.  He hated (we all did) Ann Richards, his opponent.  She’d mocked Dad at the ‘92 Democratic Convention, saying he’d been born with a silver spoon in his mouth.  So everybody pitched in, he stuck to the script for his whole campaign and won.  The next thing you know he’s President.  Go figure.
I know everybody who’s anybody, and everybody who’s anybody knows me.  And everybody who knows me knows I’d be a great President, just like Dad.
I’m Jeb!, darn it, not George.  (Oops! Sorry about that strong language.  Sometimes I just get so worked up.)
Everybody knows there has to be a Grand Bargain.  When I’m President I’ll sit down with the Demcrats and we’ll make a deal.  It will be a bipartisan, middle ground agreement.  They won’t get everything they want, and neither will I.  But it will show that Washington works when a man of good will and generosity of spirit leads the nation.  That’s me.
I know what’s coming, and where it will be coming from — Cocky John Kasich.  From 1998 to 2001, when he was Chair of the House Budget Committee, they ran surpluses of close to half a trillion dollars.  With Clinton in the White House.  He’s going to ask me to admit that George took all the savings and blew it.  Which he did.
But I’m not George, I’m Jeb!
I’ll never forget when Reagan beat Dad in 1980 with his voodoo economics.  It was tough on the whole family.  But Dad became maybe the best, most loyal, and brilliant Vice President in history.  He was so good he won the Presidency himself.  And he won by promising to take the rough edges off Reagan’s rigid conservatism, to be kinder and gentler.  And he was.  And he was taken advantage of, and lied about, and the conservatives took him down because of it.  They walked away from him, even after he won the Gulf War, and let Clinton beat him.  The family will never forget, and never forgive.
Because he stayed in Texas and acted like a cowboy, people thought George was a conservative.  But, though he’s little slow, George is a Bush, and we have compassion.  We care about the little people, especially the little brown people, the people who can’t help themselves.  We want to help them.  Conservatives don’t care about all the little people, especially the brown ones.  They think they should take care of themselves.  They’re unkind.
I ought to be the next President.  If I’m not,  I’ll know what I’ll be beaten by.
By George!

Strategery

The only debate performances that matter are those by people with a chance of winning.  So Carson, Trump, Christie and Huckabee are superfluous.  It may be premature, but I have to include Rand Paul in this category as well.  I have never for one moment believed Bush could win, and nothing from last night changed my thinking.

So, for me, it’s two accomplished midwest Governors  and two unaccomplished first term Senators.  Rubio is easily the smoothest and most effective debater, but in the end he needs seasoning.  The Vice Presidency is perfect for him.  Cruz is an unappealing man.  He lacks warmth.  He scares people.  His tone is wrong.  He’s perfect for Mark Levin, but rage won’t win this election.

Scott Walker is for real.  He didn’t shine last night.  That’s something he doesn’t do.  But he did just fine.  It’s apparent that he was thoroughly prepared.  But he is wooden and lacks spontaneity.  He’s better than he was a year ago, but in the end he is not an inspiring man.  But as the Republican nominee, he’d do.

Kasich won the debate, hands down, when you analyze it this way.  He looked at ease, didn’t try too hard, and was himself.  I really can’t see how he could have done much better. Substantively, his close was great.  Conservative accomplishment contrasted with conservative rhetoric.  People are just starting to get to know John Kasich.  They’re going to like what they see, if he keeps his cool.  Hats off to him and his whole campaign.  These guys know what they’re doing.

It’s not what you call yourself, but what you are.  John Kasich started out as a Reagan Republican.  He still is, in my book.  He didn’t manage to work in much about Reagan, but that’s just as well.  The next debate is at the Reagan Library, the perfect venue for reminiscences about the Gipper.  As these debates roll along, everyone will be looking for something new to talk about.  That’s when the Article V BBA will come up, which will be very good for Kasich.  Describing how he went to Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and South Carolina not to campaign for himself, but to campaign for a Balanced Budget Amendment, is good politics.

The Heartland Institute wants to raise and spend $400,000 a year for five years promoting Article V.  These are smart, well connected people who know where the money is.  Lew Uhler and Dave Guldenschuh will be working closely with them, with Dave making the BBA pitch at a meeting later this month in Dallas.  Another iron in the fire.  We’re getting closer to a breakthrough with the money people.  Dave Biddulph gets to make a pitch next week to Americans for Prosperity, a Koch affiliate.  If we could ever overcome the Koch family aversion to Article V we’d be home free.  Utah Senator Mike Lee finally came around.  So can the Kochs.  Let’s make it Koch/Soros steel cage death match.  Go Daves.

I’m a dying breed  — a Goldwater Republican.  Hard core.  Barry Goldwater was a great guy and a complete patriot, and will be my hero forever.  Kasich is not a Goldwater Republican, but he is a conservative, and, at my age, that’s good enough.  And he has a chance to do something really big, something a more conservative candidate perhaps couldn’t do.   Not just winning, but winning big.  A landslide, bigger than 1980.  Read a little history.  Look at 1920, and compare it to today.

All is predicated on the tide, and it’s building.

WAR!

Lindsey Graham doesn’t look like much of a tough guy, but man he can talk tough.  We’ll fight in Iraq, again, we’ll fight in Syria, we’ll fight in Afghanistan, we’ll be sending our soldiers all over the world.

But once we get in, how do we get out?  If Syria is in chaos, must we build a state there to restore order?  When are we going to be able to get out of Afghanistan, when it’s been transformed into Oregon?  Do we have to do Iraq all over again?  Hell, while we’re at it, let’s go to war in Ukraine.  We’ll show those Russkies!

We don’t need wars, we need police actions.  Go in, kick ass, and get out.  Pick the biggest stronghold ISIS has.  Send in the 82nd Airborne, kill them all, and leave.  Graham, just like McCain, is a dangerous man. War is the absolute, total last resort.  There may be enough war hawks in the Republican Party to give Graham a bounce.  I doubt it.  Thank God he doesn’t have a prayer.

Santorum reached for the Reagan mantle, but missed.  You don’t call yourself a “child of Reagan”.  How about one of Reagan’s soldiers?

Perry referred to Fiorina in response to a question.  That was smart.  She’s very, very good.  She probably would be a good President.  But it’s not where you start a political career.  Carly Fiorina will be a high cabinet officer in any Republican administration, the higher the better.  What’s not to like about this woman?

People are ambivalent about Texas.  It’s almost like a different country.  Which it once was.  But George W. Bush, Mr. Texas, was a failed President, and anyone who reminds us of him has a steep hill to climb.  Rick Perry at least made the case that he deserves a second look.  Good on him.  His response on the border was really quite good.  Until he said “Texas!”  Enough with the Texas.

The few who watched come away with the impression that Fiorina and Perry deserve to be on the big stage.  The others?  It’s just not big enough.

What is it with guys like Pataki and Gilmore?  Do they really think they’e got a shot?  Why?  I don’t get it.

I liked the question, Describe Hillary in two words.  Any body can play that game.  I think I’d go with dishonest and greedy.  There are so many words to choose from.

Big picture:  there were seven people at the undercard, every one of whom is capable of being a solid successful President (Lindsay Graham excepted).  Not just an improvement on Obama, but someone capable of turning this country around.  The tide runs with all of them.  The tide doesn’t need a leader.

Just someone to steer.

What I’d do

Fox wants an entertaining show tonight, with a lot of give and take between the candidates.  They’re being a bit coy about the exact rules, but to encourage interplay they will give rebuttal time to a candidate who is mentioned in another’s answer.  The smart ones will take advantage.

So, for instance, if Rand Paul gets a chance to talk about the flat tax he’s proposing, he can mention that Trump has no clear tax reform he’s advocating.  Then the Trump will bloviate a bit, and Paul may be given a little time for re-rebuttal.

If Kasich can work in the Article V BBA he can point out that, to the best of his knowledge, the only candidate who is afraid of an Article V BBA is Cruz.  Cruz will be forced to take a stand, and Kasich could get a chance to reply to it.

Huckabee can say he’s for shutting down the government in order to defund Planned Parenthood, and ask Bush if he agrees.

Rubio can bitch about the Iran deal and ask Carson if he agrees.

Every candidate, if they’re sharp enough, can use this rule to their advantage.  It’s not something you can completely plan in advance.  You’ve got to do it on the fly.  You have to be attuned to the dynamic that’s occurring right before you.

Who’s got the brains, and the balls, to pull it off?

The Hive of the left is restive

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/08/the_hive_is_restive.html

That was going to be my blog today.  I liked what I wrote, so I submitted it to the American Thinker as a blog post.  They only run original material, so I can’t post it yet.  (just did)  40 years ago an NR writer named Joe Sobran came up with the idea of the Hive of liberalism.  They don’t actually conspire among themselves.  They’re like bees in a hive, they all know what everyone’s supposed to do.  I’ve always liked that metaphor.

Two words Donald needs to say tomorrow night:  “You’re fired!”

Did a little work today on Idaho and Wyoming.  Bill Fruth promised to come out of retirement and, if at all possible, go to Boise to try to replicate what he did in Nashville.  Where he totally kicked ass.  His testimony at a Senate hearing turned a committed opponent into a yes.  This is virtually unheard of.  He turned the whole damn legislature, winning unanimously in the Senate, and losing only three in the House.  Amazing.

We need Fruth.