Month: May 2015

There are two very popular Conservative Republican Congressmen from the heart of California’s Central Valley that people should pay attention to.  Devin Nunes and David Valadao are Portuguese-American dairy farmers whose families came from the Azores.  Valadao’s district is 71% Hispanic, Nunes’ is 45%.  Nunes is a twelve year veteran who has a realistic shot at the open Senate seat.  His competition would be the hyper-liberal Kamala Harris, the black AG from San Francisco, and Rep. Loretta Sanchez of Orange County, a seriously erratic woman.

“McFarland U.S.A.”  is a Kevin Costner movie about a town in Valadao’s district that is 90% Mexican-American.  The boys cross country team won some state championships, and it’s a very inspiring story.  Except that today McFaraland, like most other agricultural towns in the Valley, is dying economically.  The drought is killing them.

10% of California’s water use is urban, 40% agriculture.  Half goes for habitat, or maintenance of the ecosystem.  Maintenance of the delta smelt’s ecosystem takes 1.2 million acre feet of water a year.  This bait fish, which only evolved into a separate subspecies 8-10,000 years ago, is more important than the good people of McFarland.

99% of all species which have existed on this planet are extinct.  Species are born.  Species die.  It’s called evolution.  But the environmentalists who run California don’t believe evolution should be allowed to work.  When it comes to saving the delta smelt, money, and water, are no object.  But there are other, more intelligent ways to save this species.  It’s thriving in some reservoirs, for instance, growing much larger than its normal size.

Nunes and Valadao have legislation to address this problem.  It deserves support from all the Republican Presidential candidates.  The first one to go into their districts, and hold an event with one or both of them, would get some serious media attention in California.  Positive attention.  Enough to get a bump in the polls in the most populous state.

Each Congressional district in California gets three delegates to Cleveland, selected by the Republican voters of that district.  So there’s that, as well.

There’s a story in Washington state that’s almost as good as the delta smelt.  There are stories all over the West.

They just need to be told.

In 2012 the Tea Party field wasn’t that impressive.  Gingrich, Santorum, Huckabee, Perry, Cain and whomever.  Santorum “won” in the sense that he was the last Tea Party man standing.  Next year the selection is nothing to sneeze at.  Santorum, Huckabee and Perry again, along with Cruz, Rubio, Paul and Jindal.  One of these seven will emerge, the other six will fall away.  If you’re not in that primary, as Bush, Christie, Kasich, Walker and Graham are not, you’re relatively indifferent to who wins it.  You want the support of the runners up, so you play nice with them.  The non-Tea Party Five, or Mainstream Five, or whatever you call them, are fighting to be the alternative to the winner of the Tea Party primary.  Eventually it has to get down to two people.  It’s math.

For what it’s worth I think Christie is a dead man walking.  There’s no way he makes it, so you play real nice with him, and New Jersey’s 51 delegates, chosen on June 7th.  Bush reminds me of John Connelly in 1980.  All hat and no cattle.  He’s got it all, except voters.  The braniacs who think he’s a winner are delusional.  He’s a Bush, which is  a huge, I think insurmountable problem.  And what does he offer?  Is his record as Governor so superior to that of Kasich, Perry and Walker?  Is he smarter, or smoother, or more attractive than they are?  What does he have that compensates for the negative of his name?  Nothing.  Except money.  And he has opposition that will be competitive.  March 15th is make or break for Bush, and for Rubio.  The Florida primary, 99 delegates, winner take all.  If you’re in the Tea Party primary you want Bush to win.  If not, you’re rooting for Rubio.  I think Rubio beats him, and Bush is gone on March 16th.

Who else is gone?  Most of the Tea Party primary is over, with only one or two still standing, besides Rubio..  Either Walker or Kasich will have won the non-Tea Party primary.  Maybe both will survive.  You really have no idea.

In my last post I talked about the danger, for Article V, of being too closely associated with Kasich.  With that in mind, I’m going to tell Faber that we want to invite Paul to speak at our July 25th event in San Diego.  He’s probably planning on going to ALEC anyway, so there’s a good chance he’ll accept.  He’s the real deal when it comes to the BBA.  He actually testified before the Kentucky Senate in favor of our bill.  This would be a perfect venue for him, politically.

I bet he comes.

The Democrats have controlled the Kentucky House for about 100 years.   A lot of people think that will change in next year’s election.  Maybe it could happen before the election.

In 2000 Mitch McConnell helped organize the Republican takeover of the State Senate, getting several Democrats to switch parties.  They’ve held it ever since.  I’d bet the farm that he would dearly love to do the same thing in the House.  Speaker Greg Stumbo is an aggressive, partisan Democrat.  When he was Attorney General he liked to sue Republicans for various infractions.  I bet McConnell can’t stand him.  If the Senate passed the BBA early next year, Stumbo would bury it in the House.  If we get Wisconsin this year we’re at 28.  By mid-March of next year we hope to be at 32 , with the additions of Wyoming, West Virginia, Virginia, and Idaho.  Kentucky will adjourn on or about April 15th.  If five House Democrats bucked the leadership, and forced a vote on our bill, they could change parties and put Republicans in control.  Senators did it 16 years ago, so there’s precedent.  Those Senators did not suffer, they survived.  Switching to the Republican Party may offer some of these vulnerable Democrats a way to stay in office.  They can justify their move by citing the need to make Kentucky our 33rd state, virtually assuring a Balanced Budget Amendment Convention.  This worth looking into.

There’s no way of avoiding reality.  You can’t deny it, you have to deal with it.  If Kasich announces after July 1st, as he is expected to do, his connection to the BBA movement will be there for all to see.  If you’re running against Kasich, you take him seriously, and you take the BBA seriously.  Because if we get to 32 in mid-March, and he’s still in the race, he would be on the cusp of winning the nomination by virtue of his championship of the BBA.  Kentucky is a long shot, but if it’s going to be 33 it would be by April 15th.  Next up is Arizona, which gets out on April 21st.  (All these adjournment times are subject to adjustment).  Then Oklahoma on May 25th.  Finally South Carolina on June 5th, two days before final primary day, 303 delegates from South Dakota, New Mexico, New Jersey, Montana and, the big one, California with 172 delegates.

If you’re an Oklahoma, or South Carolina, or Arizona legislator, is voting for our bill, and getting to 34, a vote for Kasich for President?  If you vote no, are you voting no to a Kasich nomination?

These state legislators are seriously conservative guys.  John Kasich is not exactly their cup of tea.  The reason Kasich is identified with us is because he’s the only one helping us, campaigning with us.  The longer this goes on, the closer the connection looks to be.  This could be a problem.  There’s a chance it cost us South Carolina.

We need to smoke these other candidates out on Article V.  All of these people, and there may be 19 of them, need to be asked about their position on an Article V BBA.  None of them can be against it.  That would be political insanity.  We know that Perry, Paul, Jindal, Cruz, Pence, and Snyder are for it.  We need to get everyone involved in the Article V movement togo to every single potential Presidential candidate and ask them their position.  And do it repeatedly.  Over and over.

We cannot be identified with one candidate.  This is something we can all do between now and January.  We don’t have any contacts in Iowa that I’m aware of.  But we know a fair number of people in New Hampshire, and quite a few in South Carolina.

Time to mobilize.

Why hasn’t Scott Walker helped out in Wisconsin?  Why hasn’t Rand Paul given us a hand?  Why has Ted Cruz been so lukewarm?  As far as Article V and the BBA, where are Jindal, Perry, and the others who are on our side, but don’t help?  Are they all afraid of losing the John Birch vote?

No, it’s because they don’t want Kasich to get credit for the BBA.  Because he got out front, and staked his claim on this issue, he’s scared everybody else off.  Bill Fruth thinks that may be the reason we stalled in South Carolina.  A lot of South Carolina legislators have been wooed by various candidates, and may have been discouraged by those candidates from passing our bill.  Because of Kasich.

So what do we do, dump him?  That wouldn’t be right and it wouldn’t be smart.  It’s just something we need to keep in mind.  Because he’s pissed off the NRA, and embraced Common Core, and expanded Medicaid, he’s not the most popular guy with the Republican legislators of Arizona, Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, Virginia, West Virginia, and South Carolina.  To the extent that we are identified with him, it hurts us.  I, personally, have decided to support him.  But I don’t speak for the Task Force, or the National Tax Limitation Committee, or anybody else.

The big question is, will this hurt us next year?  On March 17th, Idaho is scheduled to adjourn.  Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming will have adjourned earlier in the month.  We want all these states.  Of the 1,236 delegates needed to win the nomination, only 1,073 will have been decided.  The nomination will still be up for grabs, with Kasich as a contender.  Will the legislative leadership of these four states have been willing to fast track our bill, even though Kasich will get to take some credit for it?  Gary Banz can answer that question for Oklahoma.  I’ll ask Speaker Bedke in Idaho and President Nicholas in Wyoming.  They’ll be straight with me.

The Article V Summit looks to be in San Diego on Saturday, July 25th.  Biddulph convinced me that we have to give scholarships in order to get people there.  So all 99 presiding officers, and their spouses, will be offered air fare, lodgings, and some entertainment.  If they can’t go, they can select a representative to go on their behalf.

This will cost money.  Fruth is working up a proposal for David Walker and John Knubel to present to the Peterson Foundation.  If they give us half, I bet we could raise the rest.  Here’s hoping.  Biddulph and his wife Suzie will be in Vegas next month for their 50th.  He’s going to see Steve Wynn’s political guy and maybe one of Adelson’s guys.  Shake that money tree, David!  I’ll be talking to some people in Montana, but that won’t be until July  — too late.

I think we need to do two invitations.  The first is more in the nature of a notification.  That can go out right away.  When we get commitments on funding, we can send the second one.

Fox News First says Kasich was on some show and said no way in hell would he have invaded Iraq, and nation building is bullshit.  Or words to that effect.  That’s exactly what Faber told me that Kasich’s position was on Saturday in Savannah.  That’s the reason I  decided to support Kasich.  I thought Faber was shooting straight.

I’m a good judge of character.

Things have sputtered to a halt in South Carolina.  We’ll have to try again next year.  This is the strangest legislature in the country, and one of the most ethically challenged  — by design.  They make $10,000 a year and are in session five months.  “Outside income”, whatever that may mean, is necessary for a legislator to make a living.

85 year old Senator Hugh Leatherman is a real life Boss Hogg.  He’s run the Senate with an iron fist for 30 years, and everybody goes along.  He won’t talk to anyone except a select group of fellow Senators.  He was a lifelong Democrat who only switched parties to stay in the majority.  He wanted an increase in the gasoline tax and held everything else hostage.  The bizarre rules of the South Carolina Senate allow him that kind of power.

As far as I’m aware no one has any real idea of what to do with this guy.  The entire Senate is up for reelection next year.  You file between March 16 and March 30.  Maybe he’ll run, maybe he won’t.  Maybe that would help, or not.  Who the hell knows?  We’ve got seven months to figure out South Carolina.  We’ve got to come up with plan B.  It may involve the Reagan Initiative.  True regulatory reform would be a boon to the economy of South Carolina, just like the rest of the country.  It might motivate the business community to get involved.  Maybe we have to figure something else out for this state.

Next year, between February 9 and February 20, South Carolina will be at the center of the Republican nomination drama.  Maybe the fact that it’s the only southern state that hasn’t passed a BBA Resolution will get some attention.

Contrary to my understanding, NCSL starts on August 3rd, so we’ll have to move the date of the Article V Summit.  Either to Friday, August 7th, or to  Saturday, July 25th in San Diego, just after the ALEC meeting.  Whichever one Senator Faber will be able to attend.  All they need to do is agree on 1) One state, one vote 2) one Amendment, on one subject  — balancing the budget and 3)   assurances that wayward delegates would be recalled and sanctioned.  Then we can adjourn for cocktails and the awards dinner.  If we can’t get the Peterson Foundation to sponsor this there’s something wrong with us, and with them.

It’s interesting to compare the calendar of the nomination contest with the calendar for passage in our last six states.  I’m going to do that in my next post.  The first two phases of the nomination end on March 15th, with Missouri, Illinois and winner take all Florida.  At that point we could have passed our Resolutions in Oklahoma, Idaho, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming, getting us to 33.  We would need wins in Arizona or South Carolina.  If Kasich’s still in the race he could raise holy hell in those states, and get everybody fired up about their useless legislature.

Maybe that’s how we get 34.