Month: January 2015

Sponsor Tyler Lindholm (R, Sundance) tells me today that Sen. Jeff Wasserburger has agreed to co-sponsor our Reso.  Tyler and his partner, DLA sponsor Dan Laursen, are members of the insurgent wing of the Wyoming legislature.  Wasserburger is identified with the establishment.  To win we have to have both factions of the legislature (in Wyoming, there aren’t enough D’s to matter much).  Tyler says this is big.

A month ago Jeff indicated a willingness to be our principal sponsor, but later shied away.  I’m not sure what gave him pause, but he may have thought this was all some kind of “Tea Party” thing that he didn’t want to associate himself with.  Tyler suspects the spreading word of Kasich’s impending visit to Cheyenne may have brought him back.

We’re glad to have him.

Tyler also says we’ll get support from Liz Cheney.  Maybe she can help with Susan Gore of the Wyoming Liberty Group.

Kevin Grenier and the 250 More gang are raring to go, and are making plans to barnstorm the state.  These guys may be our secret weapon.  Since we don’t have any money, we have to rely on the merits of our case.

And the people.

Nobody knows about Article V, and the real chance of using it this year or next.  Running a full scale media campaign in our target states would solve the problem.  Funding for such a campaign will be forthcoming when the Republican money men realize this could hand the Presidency to their nominee.  That realization will take place, I feel confident.

But when?

We might not get 34 by 2016.  Even if we do, the election of 2016 is important because the next Article V application, whether it’s term limits, the Federalist Amendment, or the Convention of States, will need a Republican Senate.  A Senate led by Harry Reid or Chuck Schumer would kill, one way or the other, any Article V submission.  Count on it.  Because the 2016 Senate landscape greatly favors the D’s, we’ll need a winning Presidential candidate to hold on to the Senate.

I’d bet money on the Republican right now, except for the McVeigh Effect.  In the spring of 1995 the Republicans were riding high.  Newt Gingrich was the new Speaker, and the Contract for America was driving the political agenda.  Clinton was in trouble politically.  He’d pissed off the NRA, he had blood on his hands from the Waco siege, and the Hillarycare debacle was a stain on his record.  The media was covering up his sexual misconduct, but Gennnifer Flowers, Juanita Broderick, and Paula Jones were out there lurking.  Looking ahead to 1996, things looked good for the R’s.

Then on April 19, 1995, Timothy McVeigh bombed the Oklahoma City Federal Building and everything changed.  The media tied McVeigh to militias, Rush Limbaugh, and the Republicans.  It changed the political tilt of the country, and Clinton and Dick Morris were clever enough to take advantage and win reelection.  Contrast the media coverage of Oklahoma City and Benghazi, and you begin to understand how Democrats win.

For the next two years the hunt will be on for the new Timothy McVeigh.  If they can find him, it would give the D’s hope.  Because the way things are looking right now, they’re in trouble.  It’s funny, really.  Look at their leaders.  Harry Reid is so old he can’t be trusted around exercise equipment.  Nancy Pelosi is suffering from first stage dementia, and her likely replacement, Steny Hoyer, is in his 70’s, I believe.  Hillary looks and acts old, out of date, passe.  Biden’s long, slow decline into stark raving lunacy continues.  Their dark horse, California Gov. Jerry Brown, would take office at age 79.

Of course they’ve got their issues ————————-?  More government programs?  Higher taxes?  Racial justice?  Defend Obamacare?  A better foreign policy?

I’ve got it!  They’ll increase the minimum wage!  That’s how you win the Presidency.

And there’s Obama.  I have no idea what he’ll do in the next two years.

But I know he’ll screw it up.

A year ago, at Bill Fruth’s request, I did a quick and dirty research on special sessions.  Somewhere on the internet I saw something that said Montana can only have a special session if the Governor calls it.  Since Montana has a Democratic Governor, and won’t convene in 2016, I figured if we didn’t get Montana this year we won’t get it at all.  I looked into it again, by reading the Montana Constitution, and it turns out a simple majority of the Montana Legislature can call itself into special session.

This is huge.  If we come up a little short in Montana, it’s not the end of the world.  If, say, in May of 2016 we get to 33 we can go back to Montana and try to turn some votes.  The stakes would be high, and resources plentiful.  We could do it.

What a relief.  We’ve got some things going for us in 2015, but not like we’ll have in 2016, with the Presidential election well underway.  If we’re close, even the most dimwitted Republican will realize what a boon this would be for his party.

What counts as close?  That’s the question.  Would 30 be good enough?  SC, WV, WI, ND, SD and UT would get us to thirty.  Coburn could get us Oklahoma, and either Wyoming or Montana would make 32.

That’s close.

That’s when we’ll know if we get it done this year.  If Wyoming and West Virginia adjourn without passing our Reso, the campaign will extend into 2016.  If Montana were to adjourn on or about May 1st, and we don’t get a bill, we could potentially be looking at going into 2017.  Ouch.

I’m hoping for 34 this year, but planning on 2016.  It’s prudent.  We’ve definitely got Big Mo, but I wonder if we’ve got enough.  My theory has always been that when we get to the low 30’s, people will take us seriously, and start thinking about the political impact.  When the big money boys finally figure out that a successful Article BBA campaign would seriously tilt the political playing field of 2016 in the Republicans’ favor, they give us a blank check and we get it done.  But we don’t get to the low 30’s until it’s too late in 2015, so we win in 2016.

If we had a couple hundred grand to run a media campaign in Montana, I think it would guarantee a win in our most important target of 2015.  To these guys, $200,000 is chump change.

When Bill Fruth talked to Kasich’s chief of staff  a few weeks ago it was immediately apparent that we in the Task Force have a much better handle on the situation than they do.  Hopefully, as we work with them in the weeks ahead, they’ll get up to speed.

The more they learn, the better they’ll like it.