Month: November 2014

Like Ed Gillespie, running for the Senate in Virginia.  He knew most guys in Virginia are Redskins fans.  And he knew these guys, black and white, are pissed off at people telling them their team’s mascot is racist.  So he runs an ad on Monday Night Football, the night before the election, in which he says all this crap about the name “Redskins” is just that — crap.  What we should be worried about is good jobs, etc.

Reports on Fox News that Gillespie was winning 18% of the black vote led Bob Beckel to claim that number could not be right.  He didn’t realize that these black guys were voting for Gillespie because he manned up for the Redskins — finally, a politician with balls.

Gillespie may lose, but I look forward to 2017 when he’ll beat the execrable VA Gov. Terry McAuliffe.  It won’t be close.

It’s a big advantage to be smart.

It’s our only pickup.  I was wrong about the Kentucky House, but, thankfully, I was also wrong about the West Virginia Senate.  24 D’s, 10 R’s, and 17 up for election, twelve of them D’s.  To get a tie they had to pick off seven out of twelve, while holding on to their five seats.  My God, beating seven of twelve incumbent State Senators just doesn’t happen.  But it did, so they’ve got a 17-17 split, with no Lieutenant Governor to break a tie.

I’m speculating here, but it’s informed speculation.  Why would any West Virginia Republican State Senator abandon his caucus and give the D’s their 18th vote?  Corruption — it would be the only explanation.  Could happen.

Why would a Democrat State Senator abandon his caucus and give the R’s their 18th vote?  Political expediency, or, save your own ass while you can.  If you’re up in 2016, as twelve of these D senators are, you realize you’re on a sinking ship.  As long as Obama is in the White House it’s poison to be a Democrat in West Virginia.  You bail.

So we picked up a target, which we needed.  If we can’t hang on to Maryland, West Virginia will be our 34th state.  No room to spare.  Run the table, win ’em all.

I’m afraid it will have to be in 2016, though.  Virginia meets for 30 days, next year, and we haven’t even gotten it through the House yet — itself no sure thing.  We have no real champion in the Senate, and would have to get every Republican State Senator.  Possible?  Yes.  Realistic?  No.

I’ve said before the Task Force is going to need some major help to get to 34.  If we don’t get help in time for 2015’s sessions, we’ll have the summer and fall to drum up support.  As long as we’re at 30 or so we’ll be given a hearing.  This is when the Republican Presidential campaign gets going.  I believe we’ll get the active support of one or more of these campaigns — Kasich, Paul, Jindal, Pence and Perry.

There’s a meeting of the West Virginia State Senate Democratic Caucus going on right now.  There used to be 24 of them; now it’s 17.  They got their asses handed to them.  They’ll talk about how they need to stay unified, collectively cut some kind of power sharing deal with the R’s.  But they have to be unified, nobody can bolt and cut a deal on their own.  They don’t trust each other.  Everyone is thinking the same thing — if I don’t cut my own deal, which one of these sons-of-bitches is going to do it, and what will they get for it?

These are fun meetings.  My first Alaska Republican State Senate Caucus was one.  The Senate was split 10-10, and it was just a question of who bails.

It wasn’t me.

After sitting on the sidelines for 25 years I got back into the Article V game about a year ago for one reason: timing.  The Obamacare website fiasco, and the realization that people were seeing that the emperor had no clothes, told me the time was right.  People have had it with Washington, they don’t see a solution to the mess we’re in.  We knew we needed change, but didn’t really know where to look.  Congressional Republicans?  Give us a break.  People don’t trust Obama, Congress, Republicans, Democrats, Reid, Pelosi, Boehner, McConnell, Hillary, or any of the Republican Presidential hopefuls — no one.

What can be done?  Article V.  A movement and a moment in perfect alignment.  We have had a perfect political environment for our cause.

The moment is changing, of course.  It always does.  Reid out, McConnell in.  But nothing will be solved.  I’m betting Obama digs in his heels.  He’ll do amnesty by executive order, and won’t care too much about the political consequences.  So we’re in for two more years of trench warfare.  No grand bargains.  No entitlement reform.  No fiscal reform.  No significant tax reform.  We’re still in a hole, and we’re still digging.  Article V’s ideal political environment will continue.

From the Article V perspective this is all good.  We want people to continue to despise what’s happening in D.C.  It proves our point:  we need systemic change, a fundamental reordering of our politics, a return of power and responsibility away from Washington, back to the states, and the people.  The momentum we in the Task Force feel in our favor will continue.  Especially if we flip Kentucky, Maine, or Washington.  Two out of three would do.

And that momentum will be tangible, plain to see.  One state at a time.  We’ll get to 25.  Then we’ll get to 26, and 27, and 28, and 29, and 30.  And then people will realize there is hope, there is a solution, something really can be done to save this country and its Constitution.  I can’t say when this realization will take place.  But I’m confident it will happen.

Then we win.

I’ve been obsessing about a wave election for months.  I haven’t been counting on DE and MD, and without them we’re one short.  We have to win the Kentucky House to get to 34.  (Bill Fruth assures me that Mississippi is a lay up.  I believe him.)

The way I see it we were always in good shape to get Kentucky, wave or no wave.  I won’t go into details, but we’ve got a lot going for us there.  But even with KY, we’ve got no margin for error.  We would have to get all 12 states that are targets.

A well researched article in today’s WaPo says we’re going to get Maine and Washington, as well as Kentucky.  That’s what waves do.  We’ll also get the West Virginia House, but come up short in the Senate.  West Virginia will come in to play when some West Virginia State Senators switch parties and give the R’s a majority.  It’s happened in several southern states, Kentucky most recently.  U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin may lead the way, for all we know.  Because of Obama the Democrat brand is toxic in West Virginia.  So this is not a fantasy.

I think every “spare” target we acquire increases our chances dramatically.  The problem is, shit happens.  Grothman costs us Wisconsin.  Biggs costs us Arizona.  We can’t assume that we won’t run into the same thing in one or more of our 12 targets.  We need a margin of error.

That’s what waves do.

Dave Biddulph gave the Task Force a report on his talk with John Aglialoro, organizer of the 11-11 Liberty Congress in Philly.  He succeeded in convincing him to invite ALEC and NFIB, both of which he was unaware of.  It will be limited to 35 or so participants, including Dave, Lew Uhler, and either Bill Fruth or State Sen. Kevin Lundberg of Colorado, co-founder of the Article V Caucus.

Dave will be presenting our case, as will Nick Dranias for the Compact initiative, and Mark Meckler for CoS.  Dranias has agreed to promote an “all of the above” strategy, asking the assemblage to support us all.  Meckler will not agree.  In a sense, he really can’t, since that would undermine one of the premises of his own organization — to wit, only a handful of our 24 Resolutions can be aggregated, that is, counted. Natelson won’t be coming, so we’ll need to rely on Prof. Randy Barnett to refute this claim.  Barnett is more widely known than Natelson — he’s a heavyweight, though not an Article V specialist.  It is absolutely critical that he is prepared, and willing, to confute the charge of non-aggregation.  Once that has been rebutted, the logic of getting behind the Task Force as the first train through the Article V tunnel is overwhelming — Meckler really doesn’t have a leg to stand on.

I’d heard there might be a problem with the Mississippi Resolution, as there was with Florida.  Florida has been fixed, Mississippi hasn’t.  Add one to our list of targets.  Mississippi shouldn’t  be a problem.  Hopefully Rep. Joe Harrison, Master Legislator,  of neighboring Louisiana can set us up there.

Kevin Lundberg has agreed to help in Wyoming.  He represents an adjoining area of Colorado, and has numerous contacts in Wyoming.  He’s a smart, conscientious guy, and I feel better about Wyoming now.

Another day, and nothing to upset the narrative of this election.  I can’t trust my own judgment on this.  I’m so invested in the wave that I see signs of it all over the place.  I have an excellent imagination.

But it gets fevered sometimes.