Month: November 2014

This is organization week in Legislatureland.  We’re interested only in the Republican Majority Caucuses in target states.  If you want to be Speaker or Senate President you round up a majority of votes within your caucus by promising committee chairmanships, membership on key committees (everybody wants to be where the money is, Finance or Appropriations) and various plums.

There are winners and losers.  You have to be careful not to totally piss off the losers for fear that they’ll bolt and form a majority coalition with the Democrats.  This has been common in Alaska for 30 years, though rare elsewhere.

We want Article V supporters as presiding officers in every target state.  Even that is no guarantee of passage, but it makes it a whole lot easier.

What we don’t want is Andy Biggs, the current President of the Arizona Senate, and, from what we hear, the heavy favorite as next Senate President.  His mother-in-law is the former Arizona chair of Eagle Forum, and, as a good and dutiful son-in-law he’s just as whacked out as she is.  Article V is the work of the devil, part of a vast conspiracy —  so vast that it included Ronald Reagan.

Last year we passed our bill in the Arizona House, and were pretty confident we had the votes in the Senate, but Biggs killed it.  Senate Presidents can do that.

What we’ve asked our Senate supporters to do (these guys like Biggs — he must have some redeeming qualities) is to condition their vote for Biggs as President on his promise not to kill our bill next year.  It’s not a lot to ask.  I know, I’ve been there.  Normally if there are the votes to pass a bill within the majority caucus, that bill comes to the floor.  If I had been in the Arizona Senate I would have raised holy hell about it.  Maybe they’re very mild mannered down there, I don’t know.

Biggs acted the bully, played tyrant.  He’s probably a guy you don’t want to cross.  But his one point of vulnerability is this week.  He’s got to get eight fellow members of his seventeen member caucus to vote for him.  He’ll be nice to them, at least until the votes are cast.  If we can get just one of those nine to say, “Andy, I love you, and you’ve got my vote, but I want a commitment you won’t kill an Article V bill.”

Biggs will say his duty to the inviolability of the Constitution, and his oath to defend it from the evils of Article V, prevent him from making that commitment.

Then what does our state senator do?

I know what I’d do.

That would be Senate President-elect Bill Cole of West Virginia.  Elected to the Senate in 2012 he was immediately made Minority Leader by the Republican Minority Caucus.  They were down by a 10 to 24 margin, with 17 seats up in 2014.  Of the 12 Democrats running, he had to take out seven to get even.  Beating entrenched incumbent majority State Senators is hard.  Unless they’ve screwed up, it’s really hard.  Taking out seven of twelve is ridiculously hard.

The hardest part is convincing people it can be done.  You’ve got to identify your targets, and recruit candidates.  Good candidates, that will raise money, run a good campaign, and make a very significant personal sacrifice.  Damn few people will do that — take on an incumbent State Senator — unless they’re convinced not only that they can win, but they can get in the majority, where you can actually accomplish something.  I know very little about Cole.  He’s a successful businessman who currently owns a car dealership.  Not a lot of political experience.  But he has got to be one hell of a salesman.

He’s also got to be a very smart guy, which bodes well for Article V.  Overington is unsure about his position on our resolution.  He may not have had a chance to make much of a pitch to him.  But since there is little doubt that we’ll have overwhelming Republican support in the Assembly —  Overington has close to majority of the Assembly as co-sponsors — I’m sure he will give it careful consideration when it comes to the Senate.  As long as he has an open mind, and a good one, we should get his support.

We get support from establishment Republicans and Tea Party Republicans, from middle of the road to hard right.  We really only lose to Birch/Eagle Forum Republicans, or legislators from districts which have a lot of these people in them.  I don’t think West Virginia has many of these people at all.

When I was House Minority Leader in Alaska in the mid-80’s, I tried to do what Senator Cole did.  It was hard, really hard.  I never came close.

In my opinion Senator Cole’s victory will be what puts us over the top.  In the worst case scenario, we only get to 34 with West Virginia.  Because of him, we won ‘t need a single Democrat in any of our target states.

I say it’s wise to expect the worst.  That way you won’t be disappointed.

I like people with balls.  The guys at 250 More get their name from their intention to promote reforms which will ensure another quarter of a millennium of American freedom.  Aim high, I say.

They’ve put out a constructive critique of the current Article V movement, and I’m responding on behalf of the Reagan Project, not the BBA Task Force.  That would require circulating drafts, doing edits, and such.

Their first point is cooperation between the various groups working on Article V.  No argument there.  The Task Force formally adopted, by unanimous vote, an “all of the above strategy.”  As Mao said, let a hundred flowers bloom.

Then they say we’ll need support from the center-left, especially to get to 38 for ratification.  But we believe the current House and Senate leadership, and a majority of the rank and file, will want us to succeed.  These guys want a BBA, and Article V is the only way.  So we won’t need 38 state legislatures to ratify, which might well be a bridge too far.  Congress will accede to our request that ratification take place in state conventions, where we’ll have a much easier time.  Even deep blue electorates, like Maryland, Massachusetts, and Illinois have some fiscal rectitude, as evidenced by Governors-elect, Hogan, Baker and Rauner.  When electing delegates to a ratifying convention voters will choose delegates who support, or oppose, ratification.  Period.  It’s a one issue vote.  Party labels won’t matter.  My reading of the current political landscape tells me we get 38 conventions.  Easily.

It’s slim pickings for Article V on the center/left.  With the defeat of Barrow in Georgia and Rahal in West Virginia, there isn’t an honest to God blue dog Democrat left in Congress, with the possible exception of Joe Manchin.  It’s a dying breed.  And in the short term, from now until the 2016 election, savvy Democrats realize putting the BBA into the national political conversation is political poison for them.  Please see my previous post on this blog.

An important exception is Congressional term limits through Article V.  That really can be totally bipartisan.  Aaron Cook is a Kansas City lawyer who has set up termlimitconvention.org.  In my view, it should be the second train through the Article V tunnel.  It’s got just as much public support as a BBA, and that support runs across the entire political spectrum, from hard right to hard left.  And, like the BBA, term limits is a movement and a moment in perfect harmony.   The only people who approve of Congress are those who aren’t paying attention. Hopefully Aaron will find help from the center/left.

They also say we need more youth involvement, and a legal team.  Amen to that.  We’re working on it.  The Task Force is dominated by septuagenarians.  As to lawyering up, my hope is that if and when that becomes necessary we would have enough credibility to get help from established conservative lawyers in public interest outfits like Judicial Watch.

Their most telling criticism is the almost complete lack of a media presence, and thus public awareness.  They’re trying in talk radio.  Limbaugh, Levin, Beck, Cain et. al.  Hasn’t really moved the needle.  Levin’s book did some good, but it’s off the radar.  Various articles have appeared on Article V, to little effect.  We’ll keep tooting our horn, and as we get to 27, then 28, 29, 30 — people will start to hear the tune.  To break through we’ll need money or, even better, Republican Presidential candidates who seize on this issue and make it their own.  We know we’re supported by Kasich, Paul, Snyder, Jindal, Pence, and Perry.  Cruz thinks he has to worry about all the Birch/Eagle Forum people that helped elect him in Texas.  I suspect he’ll figure it out, as will Walker.

As the 2014 election fades into a golden memory, political types across the country are going to get involved in various Presidential campaigns.  Anyone who does should try to promote the BBA through Article V as an issue their candidate should embrace.  It’s a no brainer, politically.  And if one of these guys start pushing it, the others will pile on.  It could be one thing that unites the field.  They should all support putting it in the platform at the convention.  Even if, God forbid, we don’t get to 34 by 2016, it could be one of the defining issues of the 206 Presidential election.

We’ve been a free country for 238 years.  250 More?

Hell, yes.

If we do manage to get to 34 next year, we’ll be asking Congress, (or more specifically Chairman Goodlatte of House Judiciary, and Chairman Grassley of Senate Judiciary)  to set the time of the Amendment Convention no later than the spring of 2016.  We will also ask that the proposal from the Convention be voted on by the states not through their legislatures, but through state conventions.  The Amendment Convention would finish its work by summer, allowing the states to have elections for the ratification conventions in November, 2016 — the same day as the Presidential election.  Dave Biddulph imagines a split screen on election night, with one side showing the electoral vote count, the other showing the count on the BBA ratification votes around the country.  Today, and for the last 30 years, 2/3 of the American people have polled in favor of a BBA, so if the Democrats running in 2016 are opposed, they’ll be hurt, badly.

That’s the ideal.  If we get to 34 in 2016, it’s too late for this scenario.  But what could happen is almost as good.  The Amendment Convention would be held in late summer, just as the Presidential campaign kicks into high gear after Labor Day.  That campaign and the Convention would take place simultaneously.  The Convention would agree on a proposed amendment prior to election day.  All candidates, not just Presidential, would have to weigh in on their position on the proposed amendment.  All of this, all of it, benefits the Republicans, from the top of the ticket down.  2016 could be another 1980, although without the Gipper.  It could be a realignment election, in the way that 1932 was for the D’s.  They had Hoover to kick around then.  We’ll have Obama.

Dave and Bill Fruth will be making this pitch to the Liberty Congress.  Surely some in the audience will get it.  I’ll be making this same pitch to all the Republican presidential campaigns, to the extent that I can get to them.  Lew Uhler should be able to help there, or some of our legislative sponsors.

I’m not involved with Article V because I want to win elections for the Republicans.  I want Article V.  That’s the Reagan Project.  It just so happens, because of the timing, that a successful Article V BBA in 2015 or 2016 has enormous electoral appeal for Republican candidates.  If they can be convinced of that, they have access to the resources to make it happen.

The problem is credibility.  Is the Task Force just blowing smoke?  We’ve got 24, we can clearly see our to 34 (thanks to West Virginia, without one Democrat vote), but is that enough?  We’ll find out in Philly on Tuesday.  I think these guys are primed for Article V, and are ready to believe.

If we don’t get some help we could still do it this year.  It would be unlikely.

Like flipping the West Virginia Senate was unlikely.

The West Virginia Senate flipped last night, when a Democrat decided, for some reason, that he now wants to be a Republican.  Since he was the first to come over, he’ll get the most goodies — probably including a committee chairmanship.  I’d be surprised if more members of the now minority Senate D’s don’t follow.  Being in the minority is a bitch, let me tell you.  I spent my entire eight year career in the Alaska Legislature in the minority.  I was only able to get one bill through, but, on the bright side, I did have a lot of free time.  Good politicians are highly attuned to changes in the strength and direction of the wind.  In West Virginia right now you don’t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind’s blowing.

One of the heroes of the Article V movement, right up there with Hal Wick of South Dakota, is Delegate John Overington of the West Virginia House of Delegates.  He’ll be in the majority for the first time in his 30 or so years in the House.  One of the reasons he’s hung in there for so long is his dedication to Article V.  He’s been introducing our bill since he was first elected.  He never even got it out of the House, but he didn’t quit.  He’s been selling Article V in the State Capitol all this time, and because of him we think West Virginia is ours.

What a guy.