Article V is going to happen. No doubt in my mind. But when?
It is possible we come up short, even in 2016. That won’t be the end of it. We’ll hold the House in 2016, but it will take a favorable environment, and a good Presidential candidate, to hold the Senate. We need a Republican Congress to honestly aggregate 34 state resolutions — no funny business.
We’ve got plenty of good Presidential candidates, and unless something fairly drastic happens, we’ll have a good political environment. 2014 showed that the Democrat national coalition is weakening.
Blacks — without Obama on the ticket, the D’s will get their 90%, but with lower turnout. And D’s better be damn careful about criticizing the first black President. For blacks, he’s their guy, and they’re sticking with him.
Latinos — Obama is giving them amnesty, but I don’t think it buys their loyalty. In 2016 they’re going to want a good economy, just like everybody else. R’s may misplay their hand with Latinos, so they’ll be up for grabs.
Yutes — How the hell do you get a 20 year old excited about Hillary Clinton? First woman prez? Whoop-te-do. How about a job? Obama will have had eight years to get the economy up to speed, and not much to show for it. Yutes wil be ready for change. They usually are.
Asians — fastest growing minority, and the R’s split their vote this time. Maybe it was that video of the Asian shopkeeper being knocked around by the gentle giant in Ferguson. Maybe it was the realization that the D’s will sell them out to help blacks. They belong in the Republican Party,and they will find a good home there.
Jews — We got about a third, higher than normal. Obama seems to have a real attitude toward Israel. He sees it as a white European colonial power. His obvious distaste for the Jewish state will drive more Jews to the R’s.
Women — The whole war on women thing is looking weak. Unless we nominate a whack job like Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee we should do much better with women. Senator Uterus in Colorado was the last gasp.
Whites — the migration of the working white man to the R’s is almost complete. Romney didn’t appeal to these guys. Any of the R field will do better. Beginning in May of 2012 the D’s savaged Romney, he had no money to fight back, and he lost a lot of these votes in PA, MI, WI, OH. I think the R’s will figure out a way to prevent that from happening again.
None of the above depends on anything Obama will or will not do. Based on everything that’s happened since the election, he won’t do the D’s any good, and will probably do a lot of harm.
So 2016 will be good for Article V, and Republicans. We will continue to try and expand the playing field, looking for wins, and total control, in the Maine House, Kentucky House, Minnesota Senate, Washington House, and Oregon House and Senate. Potentially five new targets.
So, in the dreaded event that I’m still working on this two years from now, things will be looking good.
The wave has washed us ashore, and the wind blows strongly at our backs.
reaganproject.blog 