Waves

I’ve been obsessing about a wave election for months.  I haven’t been counting on DE and MD, and without them we’re one short.  We have to win the Kentucky House to get to 34.  (Bill Fruth assures me that Mississippi is a lay up.  I believe him.)

The way I see it we were always in good shape to get Kentucky, wave or no wave.  I won’t go into details, but we’ve got a lot going for us there.  But even with KY, we’ve got no margin for error.  We would have to get all 12 states that are targets.

A well researched article in today’s WaPo says we’re going to get Maine and Washington, as well as Kentucky.  That’s what waves do.  We’ll also get the West Virginia House, but come up short in the Senate.  West Virginia will come in to play when some West Virginia State Senators switch parties and give the R’s a majority.  It’s happened in several southern states, Kentucky most recently.  U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin may lead the way, for all we know.  Because of Obama the Democrat brand is toxic in West Virginia.  So this is not a fantasy.

I think every “spare” target we acquire increases our chances dramatically.  The problem is, shit happens.  Grothman costs us Wisconsin.  Biggs costs us Arizona.  We can’t assume that we won’t run into the same thing in one or more of our 12 targets.  We need a margin of error.

That’s what waves do.