Since we’re counting on flipping as many as five state legislatures into Red, the Nov. elections loom large. There seems to be a consensus that the D’s chances are tightly bound to Obama’s approval rating, currently in the mid-forties. For a really big wave, that number needs to fade a bit. If it starts edging up, we could even lose the Senate again.
So what’s going to move that number in the next nine months?
1) Foreign affairs? I can see a lot of problems, not a lot of opportunities. I’ll bet Obama doesn’t get any upside from overseas. A lot of bad things could hit the fan, especially in the Middle East.
2) The economy? Everything I see says this won ‘t help Obama much. The best he can hope for is modest recovery, which I can’t see giving him much upside. Obamacare, and all the federal regulations, will prevent any real rebound. So, more of the same, with the possibility of something blowing up ever present.
3) Obamacare? ok, I’m a fanatic about this. I follow the damn thing as closely as I can; I read everything that’s out there. Jim Capretta above all. And Avik Roy. I swear these guys aren’t partisan hacks. They’re legitimate experts, whose predictions have been spot on. They say it gets worse. Everything I’ve learned tells me they’re right.
4) Republican implosion. I think the R’s have realized they can’t win in a showdown with Obama, on the debt ceiling g, spending, or just about anything else. It doesn’t matter if they’re right. The MSM is still too powerful. So I think they avoid shooting themselves in the foot.
5) Another 9/11. We do rally around a President, any President, at such times. The big east coast hurricane the last week of the 2012 campaign certainly helped Obama (thanks, Christie.) You never know.
6) A black swan. Something nobody saw coming. Something off the wall. An assassination attempt. Michelle gets cancer. A Tea Party member blows up a federal building. I remember the political climate of early 1995. Things did not look good for Clinton and the D’s. People were pissed off at the federal government. The Waco slaughter was only a year old, and it stunk. A teenager was shot and killed at Ruby Ridge by the feds in a gun sting gone wrong. Things were moving our way. It felt good. Then came Timothy McVeigh, blowing up the federal building in Oklahoma City. He was a righty, a militia guy. He was used to discredit all of us . It worked. The MSM went overtime, and Clinton caught a wind which started him on his reelection run.
Barring that swan, I’m willing to bet that Obama’s barely in the 40’s in November. We win, big. Good stuff begins to happen , including our Article V campaign. 1946 was a huge year in American political history, and is much underappreciated. We could do even better 68 years later. These things take a long time.
You gotta believe.
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